California almond prices are firming on strong export demand, limited NP inventory and a stable 2.7 bn lbs crop outlook, with early harvest and robust June shipments expected.
Prices & Market Tone
US and EU almond offers in early June confirm the firming trend evident in the market narrative. Recent quotes for US Carmel SSR 18/20 and 20/22 in Washington D.C. stand around EUR 6.55–6.60/kg FAS, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 is near EUR 9.20/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona kernels are offered around EUR 6.50–8.75/kg FOB Madrid, and Valencia types near EUR 5.40–5.80/kg, all slightly higher than late May levels, reflecting global strength.
This upward drift aligns with reports of tightening availability in California for NPX, Independence and NP inshell and growing confidence in demand for both current and new crop. Price gains remain orderly rather than explosive, but the bias is clearly upward as buyers compete for remaining high-demand grades and as forward coverage for 2026/27 slowly builds from low initial sales.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
May 2026 shipments reached 217.3 million lbs versus 211.7 million lbs in May 2025, a gain of 2.8%, and would likely have been higher without end‑month shipping line rollovers. Exports drove the improvement at 169.1 million lbs (+5.2% y/y), while domestic shipments softened to 48.25 million lbs (‑5.5% y/y), suggesting some price sensitivity or timing effects in the US market rather than a structural demand issue.
Country mix shows a notable rebalancing. India imported 26.1 million lbs, down sharply from 35.3 million lbs last year, while Turkey more than doubled to 16.1 million lbs and Germany rose to 10.9 million lbs from 8.1 million lbs. Spain was flat at 13.3 million lbs, and Morocco surged to 8.9 million lbs from 2.8 million lbs, illustrating how demand has broadened beyond a few key destinations and is absorbing California supply even as India normalizes from prior exceptional buying.
Year‑to‑date shipments now total 2.213 billion lbs versus 2.262 billion lbs a year ago, a modest decline of 2.2%. With crop receipts for 2025 at 2.69 billion lbs and the 2026 crop also forecast around 2.7 billion lbs, the overall balance sheet is moving away from the heavy surpluses of past seasons but still offers adequate supply. On paper, June shipments are expected to print strongly above last year, which would narrow the year‑to‑date deficit and further underpin prices.
Fundamentals & Inventory
The industry is now approximately 84.9% sold on current crop plus carry‑in, indicating limited uncommitted stocks heading into the summer, particularly in NPX, Independence and NP inshell. New crop sales are still at an early stage—about 3.4% sold based on a 2.7 billion lbs forecast—but significantly ahead of last year in absolute terms, with 92 million lbs already on the books versus 65.7 million lbs at the same point in 2025.
Importantly, buyers appear more comfortable advancing coverage this season because the 2.7 billion lbs subjective estimate is broadly seen as realistic and there is no disruptive Objective Estimate to trigger sudden sentiment shifts. This reduces the risk of abrupt price corrections driven by data surprises and encourages a steadier, demand‑led market. The combination of tight spot availability in premium grades and firm forward interest is shifting negotiating power moderately in favor of sellers.
Weather & Crop Progress
Growers across California’s Central Valley expect harvest to begin roughly one week earlier than last year, with initial shaking likely by late July. Current weather patterns support this view: forecasts for key almond regions in the Valley call for hot, predominantly dry conditions with daytime highs in the mid‑ to upper‑30s°C (mid‑90s to low‑100s°F) and minimal rain through the coming week, typical for June and favorable for nut development and early hull split.
At this stage there are no major weather‑related threats to the 2026 crop on the horizon, and the 2.7 billion lbs production outlook remains the working baseline for the industry. However, sustained heat waves later in the summer or localized water constraints could still affect final yields and kernel quality, so market participants will monitor orchard conditions closely into July and August.
Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
Market sentiment is cautiously bullish into the end of the 2025/26 marketing year. Strong expected June shipments, high sold positions on current crop and limited NP‑type inventories point to continued price support through July, especially for Nonpareil and Independence kernel and inshell grades. The relatively modest 2.7 billion lbs crop outlook and early harvest timing reduce downside risk from supply surprises but also argue against sharp price spikes unless export demand accelerates further.
- Buyers/end‑users: Consider accelerating coverage for July–September needs, particularly for NPX, Independence and NP inshell where spot availability is already tight. Use any short‑lived dips from currency moves or freight noise to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026.
- Handlers/sellers: Maintain a firm but pragmatic offer stance on premium grades; with 84.9% of current crop sold, there is little need for aggressive discounting. For new crop, incremental forward sales around current levels appear attractive given the balanced supply outlook and improving demand base.
- Importers/traders (EU, MENA, Turkey): Monitor India’s buying pace closely; if India returns more aggressively later in the season, competition for Nonpareil and higher‑spec kernels could intensify. Consider diversifying origin between California and Spanish almonds to manage quality and logistics risk.
3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)
- US (FAS, main ports): Carmel SSR and NP‑type kernels expected to trade steady to slightly higher over the next three days as buyers finalize July positions.
- EU (FOB Spain): Valencia and Marcona kernels likely to hold a firm, mildly upward bias in EUR terms, reflecting both local demand and the stronger Californian market.
- MENA/India (C&F indications): Values seen stable to firm, with some upside risk if freight disruptions from rolled shipments persist or if near‑term demand in Turkey and North Africa remains elevated.