Black Gram Market: Limited Downside as Delayed Sowing Tightens Supply

Black gram prices are poised for renewed firmness after a brief correction, with tight domestic availability, delayed sowing and costlier imports capping downside and keeping a fresh rally of roughly EUR 48–58 per tonne in play. After a sharp run-up, profit-taking and deliveries of earlier sales triggered a decline of about EUR 48–52 per tonne. Yet structurally tight supply, delayed planting in key states and firmer Myanmar offers are preventing a deeper sell-off. Monsoon rainfall has improved lately, but sowing delays of 15–20 days mean India’s next crop remains vulnerable to any renewed weather stress. With new domestic arrivals still several months away, the market is likely to stay sensitive to changes in import costs and rainfall over central India.

Prices & Market Mood

Recent profit-booking and stockist selling pulled black gram (urad) prices lower by roughly EUR 48–52 per tonne from their recent peak, both in domestic hubs and in import-linked segments. In Chennai, bold urad has eased to about EUR 910–930 per tonne and small-grade material to roughly EUR 865–880 per tonne, following heavy sales by stockists.

Even so, traders now see limited further downside, as both Indian and Myanmar inventories are reported to be relatively low. Forward market participants expect that, once the current selling pressure is absorbed, prices could rebound by approximately EUR 48–58 per tonne, effectively retracing much of the recent correction as supply concerns reassert themselves.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India’s black gram balance sheet remains tight. Last season’s production is estimated at 3.5–3.6 million tonnes, but delayed sowing this year in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra—by about 15–20 days due to weak early-June rains—raises the risk of a smaller upcoming crop. Many farmers are also shifting area toward vegetables and other higher-return crops, structurally constraining pulse output.

Domestic supplies are not expected to reach the market in volume for another two-and-a-half months, leaving mills and traders heavily reliant on imported and pipeline stocks. With consumer demand relatively steady, this limited near-term availability is underpinning prices despite the recent correction, and it is likely to magnify any further weather or logistical shocks.

Import Parity & Myanmar Offers

Myanmar remains the key external supplier. In Yangon, small-grade urad has recently traded around USD 960 per tonne and bold-grade at about USD 1,080 per tonne, while current forward offers are indicated near USD 880 per tonne for FAQ and USD 965 per tonne for SQ quality. Converted to euros, these levels keep Indian import parity at historically elevated territory, particularly after freight and finance costs.

Costly containers and firmer FOB offers have already prompted Indian pulse mills to scale back fresh import buying, contributing to the temporary easing in local spot prices. However, this import pullback also means that any improvement in end-user demand or renewed concerns over the 2026/27 crop could quickly tighten the pipeline, reinforcing expectations of a further EUR 48–58 per tonne upside once current selling abates.

Monsoon & Sowing Outlook

Early in the season, weak and uneven rainfall forced farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra to delay black gram sowing by 15–20 days. Subsequent monsoon progress has been much stronger, with central India—covering both states—recording broadly above-normal July rainfall and a sharp rebound in kharif sowing activity. 

While improved July rains have reduced the risk of severe drought stress, the crop remains more exposed to any late-season rainfall deficits because of the shortened growth window. Traders therefore continue to price in yield risk linked to potential monsoon variability in August and September, a factor that helps keep the market biased to the upside rather than anticipating a prolonged price slide.

Key Fundamentals & Risks

• Tight stocks: Reported low inventories in Chennai and Myanmar limit the scope for aggressive stockist selling and deepen any future supply shock.
• Delayed sowing: A 15–20 day lag in planting increases sensitivity to late monsoon performance and may trim 2026/27 output versus last year’s 3.5–3.6 million tonnes.
• Import cost risk: Elevated Yangon offers and high container costs mean any further rise in global prices or freight will quickly lift Indian landed costs.
• Demand stability: Food and processing demand for black gram is relatively inelastic, so even modest supply disruptions can lead to outsized price moves.

Trading Outlook & Short-Term Price Indication (3 Days)

• For importers/mills: Consider covering near-term requirements on dips close to current levels, as downside appears limited and import offers remain firm.
• For stockists: Aggressive liquidation may no longer be advisable; retaining core holdings looks prudent given the potential EUR 48–58 per tonne upside.
• For end-users: Budget for a firm price environment into the new-crop arrival window; use any further brief corrections to extend coverage.

Overall, black gram prices are expected to trade with an upward bias over the coming sessions, with the market more likely to challenge recent highs again than to sustain a deeper decline, barring a sudden improvement in supply visibility.