Cashew Kernels Edge Higher as India Monsoon Starts and Vietnam Exports Stay Firm

Cashew kernel prices in key origins are edging higher, with modest week‑on‑week gains for main grades in India and stable but firm quotations in Vietnam. Tightness in raw cashew nut (RCN) supply, currency moves and freight costs are supporting offers, while demand from major buyers in the US, EU and China remains solid. Near‑term, the market bias is mildly bullish, especially for white wholes W240/W320 from India and Vietnam. Cashew trade is navigating a complex 2026 backdrop of fluctuating currencies, logistics costs and quality issues, but fundamentals for kernels remain constructive. India faces higher RCN import costs as the rupee stays weak, passing through into kernel offers, while Vietnam consolidates its role as the leading exporter with robust shipments so far this year. Recent Vietnamese customs data show May 2026 cashew exports above 74,000 tonnes, only slightly below last year, indicating resilient global demand despite macro uncertainty. The Southwest monsoon has just advanced over Kerala and parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, reducing weather risk for the new Indian crop for now, though a slightly below‑normal rainfall forecast keeps a risk premium in place.

Prices & Differentials

All prices below are indicative and converted to EUR/t (1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR) for comparison.

Domestic Indian wholesale prices for W320 are reported in the range of roughly 750–900 INR/kg (≈ 8.25–9.90 EUR/kg), confirming firm domestic demand and limited discounting. Recent global SW320 benchmarks also place India and Vietnam among the highest‑priced origins, underlining their pricing power in the kernel market.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam remains the dominant global cashew kernel exporter. Fresh customs data show May 2026 cashew nut exports of about 74,100 tonnes worth nearly USD 529 million, up 7.7% in volume and 8.2% in value versus April. Year‑to‑date exports to May total roughly 268,000 tonnes, only 3% below last year by volume and almost flat in value, indicating resilient international demand despite weaker shipments in early 2026.

On the raw nut side, African origins continue to feed India and Vietnam. Updated trade statistics confirm Côte d’Ivoire’s strong shipments of cashew and other nuts to Vietnam, underscoring the structural dependence of Asian processors on African RCN. In India, processors are reportedly facing higher RCN import costs due to a softer rupee, increasing pressure on margins and supporting kernel offer levels.

Demand from major kernel importers (US, EU, China) remains broadly constructive. Vietnam’s earlier 2026 export data showed strong rebounds in shipments to the US and China in March after a slower January, suggesting that buyers are returning to the market when price dips appear. Wholesale guides in India also highlight robust domestic snacking and confectionery demand, with cashew keeping pace with other premium nuts in pricing. Overall, the current balance is marginally tight, particularly in higher grades.

Weather Outlook: India & Vietnam (Near Term)

The Southwest monsoon has now been declared over Kerala and has advanced across most of the state, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, with further progress inland expected. For cashew‑growing belts in coastal Kerala and Karnataka, this arrival reduces immediate moisture‑stress risk for trees post‑harvest and supports flowering and vegetative conditions for the next cycle.

However, seasonal forecasts point to slightly below‑normal all‑India rainfall (around 90% of the long‑period average) under lingering El Niño‑like influences, with an increased chance of heatwaves in several western and central states. While cashew is relatively drought‑tolerant, a sub‑par monsoon in Maharashtra, Goa and parts of Andhra Pradesh could limit yield recovery in 2027, adding a modest risk premium to longer‑dated kernel positions.

In Vietnam, no extreme weather events have been reported in major cashew‑growing provinces in the last few days. Manufacturing trackers point to broadly normal industrial activity and exports, with no notable disruptions in agri‑processing hubs. This supports stable near‑term supply flows for kernels from Vietnam.

Market Fundamentals & Drivers

• Currency & Costs: The weakening Indian rupee is raising RCN import costs and nudging kernel offers higher to protect processor margins. Freight and financing costs remain elevated compared with pre‑2020 norms, limiting downside.
• Export Momentum: Vietnam’s May 2026 export rebound and near‑stable year‑to‑date volumes highlight that buyers are still absorbing high‑priced kernels, especially for premium grades.
• Competing Nuts: In India, wholesale guides show cashew pricing in the upper band of edible nuts, but not so high as to trigger major substitution away from cashew. This underpins steady demand.
• Structural Supply Chain: African RCN flows to India and Vietnam remain crucial; the current configuration of strong African exports and Asian processing capacity continues to define global kernel availability.
• Policy & Trade: No fresh, cashew‑specific trade measures have emerged in the last few days, but broader volatility in shipping and container availability keeps a modest risk premium on nearby contracts.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers (roasters, packers, retailers):
  • Consider covering at least 4–6 weeks of W320/W240 needs from Vietnam where offers are slightly more competitive than India and export flows are strong.
  • Use any small dips from currency swings to add coverage rather than waiting for a broader correction; fundamentals do not support a sharp price decline in the near term.
  • For value blends, look at LWP/LP from Vietnam and India, which remain at a clearer discount to whole whites while tracking similar fundamentals.
• For sellers (processors, exporters in IN/VN):
  • Maintain firm offer levels for W240/W320; current export data and cost pressures justify a mild premium, particularly for certified and higher‑grade lots.
  • Be flexible on forward shipment months to capture demand from EU/US buyers looking to secure Q3–Q4 positions amid uncertain monsoon outcomes.
• For traders:
  • Monitor monsoon progress in western India and any changes in African RCN export flows; negative weather surprises or logistics issues could quickly tighten nearby spreads.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• India (FOB New Delhi – kernels): With firm domestic demand and higher RCN import costs, kernel prices for W320 and W240 are expected to trade steady to slightly higher over the next three days, with upside risk if the rupee weakens further.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi – kernels): Given strong May export performance and normal operations in processing hubs, Vietnamese kernel prices (WW320/WW240 and main broken grades) are likely to remain stable to mildly firm in the very short term, particularly for top grades where availability is somewhat tighter.