China Pumpkin Seeds: Stocks Vanish as New Crop Approaches

Chinese pumpkin seed kernels are heading into a structurally tighter phase: old-crop stocks are set to be almost exhausted by September, while new-crop output, though slightly higher in area, looks insufficient to fully offset the drawdown. This points to a firmer underlying price floor, even as regional price dispersion and off-season demand temper any explosive rally. With an estimated 65,000 tonnes of 2025-crop pumpkin seed stocks and monthly use near 15,000 tonnes, the market is likely to enter the 2026/27 season with close to zero carry-in. Traders are already pricing in tighter fundamentals: FOB prices in Dalian and Beijing have been edging higher since mid-July, while domestic spot markets show pronounced regional divergence, with Inner Mongolia firming and Yunnan under pressure from selling. Buyers face a classic squeeze scenario where low stocks and only moderate production growth shift bargaining power back to sellers.

Prices

FOB prices in China have moved modestly higher over the last three weeks, reflecting tightening supply rather than strong seasonal demand. In Dalian, GWS and shine skin kernels have gained about EUR 0.05 per kg between 18 July and 31 July, while Beijing quotes show a similar upward bias for most conventional grades.

Despite this firm tone, domestic spot prices show strong regional volatility. June 2026 data indicate that Inner Mongolia’s Hangjinhouqi area saw pumpkin seed prices rise by around 10.7%, while parts of Yunnan such as Xiangyun recorded declines near 8.3% due to selling pressure. This underlines a market where logistics, local stock positions and farmer selling are driving short-term moves more than export demand.

Supply & Demand

China’s 2025-crop pumpkin seed stocks are estimated at roughly 65,000 tonnes. With average monthly consumption near 15,000 tonnes, inventories are projected to be largely depleted by September, just before new crop arrivals. This means the new marketing year will start from an unusually low base, structurally tightening the balance sheet.

For the 2026 harvest, national pumpkin seed production is forecast at around 240,000 tonnes, including approximately 140,000 tonnes of shine skin ("light" kernels). Sown area is up slightly year on year, but against the background of effectively zero old-crop carryover, this increase is not enough to recreate a comfortable surplus. Market sentiment therefore remains focused on supply-side risk, especially in key origins such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan.

Fundamentals & Regional Dynamics

Fundamentals are characterised by three interacting forces: rapidly declining stocks, regional price divergence and seasonal demand weakness. The expectation of tight availability into early new-crop is providing a solid floor to prices, particularly in northern producing regions where stocks are already thin.

At the same time, the summer demand lull, both domestically and in export channels, is capping rallies. Processors and traders in areas like Yunnan’s Xiangyun face pressure to move remaining inventory ahead of the new season, explaining the local price declines observed in June. By contrast, Inner Mongolia’s Hangjinhouqi, with stronger forward sales and tighter farm stocks, is able to command a premium and has led the recent domestic uptrend.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook

Weather in core Chinese pumpkin seed regions over early August will be watched closely, but the dominant fundamental story is stock depletion rather than an already-identified weather shock. With only a slight increase in sown area and a production forecast of about 240,000 tonnes, any adverse weather during critical pod-filling and harvesting stages could quickly amplify the existing tightness.

In the absence of confirmed extreme events in recent days, current expectations lean towards a broadly normal crop, albeit one that must cover the entire demand with almost no help from carry-in. As a result, buyers are increasingly looking to secure coverage before harvest pressure fully sets in, especially for higher grades and preferred origins.

Trading Outlook

• Importers/roasters: Use current summer consolidation to extend coverage into Q4 2026, focusing on GWS and shine skin AA grades. Prioritise origins in Inner Mongolia for quality and reliability, but remain price-sensitive given regional spreads.
• Industrial buyers: Consider layering in purchases on minor dips rather than waiting for a major harvest-related correction, as near-zero stocks limit downside once new-crop demand emerges.
• Chinese exporters/processors: Avoid aggressive forward sales at low premiums. With stocks nearly exhausted and only modest production growth, maintain a firm offer structure but be prepared for some negotiation in demand-sensitive destinations.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR, CN FOB)

• Dalian GWS kernels (grades A/AA): Slightly firmer bias; tight stocks suggest a mild upward drift in the next three days if inquiries persist.
• Dalian shine skin kernels: Mostly steady to marginally higher; upside limited by seasonal demand but underpinned by low inventories.
• Domestic spot (Inner Mongolia vs. Yunnan): Continued regional divergence, with Inner Mongolia holding gains and Yunnan remaining under selective pressure where sellers still liquidate old crop.