China Turns Away from US Soybeans as Brazil Dominates Import Window

China’s soybean demand remains strong, but US exporters face a structural loss of market share to Brazil and other origins, with price and tariff disadvantages weighing on US beans and pressuring farm incomes. China is importing large volumes of soybeans, but buyers are clearly favouring Brazil and other low-tariff origins. For US exporters, the combination of higher landed costs, tariffs and lost seasonal window has driven a steep drop in China-bound volumes and left domestic farmers exposed to lower returns. Locally in China, FOB prices in Beijing have softened in August, reflecting comfortable port inventories and strong competition from imports, while crushers still secure ample supply from South America.

Trade Flows: Deep Structural Shift Away from US

Exporter feedback points to a sharp drop in China’s share of US soybean demand. For 2025/26, US soybean exports to China are projected to fall by around 13%–18% year on year, with China’s 2025 full-year US soybean imports at just 16.8 million tonnes, down 24%. In Q1 2026, China imported only 3.41 million tonnes from the US, a steep 70.5% decline versus the same period a year earlier, underlining how rapidly trade flows have shifted.

At the same time, China’s overall soybean imports remain high, driven mainly by Brazilian supplies. Recent customs data show July 2026 soybean arrivals above 10 million tonnes and January–July imports up around 5% year on year, with Brazilian beans dominating flows into Chinese ports . This demonstrates that the demand problem is not in China’s aggregate import needs, but specifically in the loss of competitiveness for US-origin beans.

Price & Tariff Disadvantage: US Beans Priced Out

The price and tariff structure is the core driver of this shift. US soybeans into China face a combined tariff burden of about 13%, while Brazilian beans enter at roughly 3%. For August 2026 shipment, indicative CNF offers show US Gulf soybeans around 569 USD/tonne versus Brazilian beans at 499 USD/tonne into China. Once converted into yuan and taxed, the fully landed cost in South China leaves US-origin soybeans about 474 CNY/tonne more expensive than Brazilian equivalents.

Recent corrections to benchmark assessments confirm that the premium on US Gulf CFR China prices remains significant, reflecting both freight and tariff effects, and discouraging commercial crushers from booking US cargoes ahead of the US harvest . In practice, Chinese buyers are “pre-booking South America and using US beans only as a seasonal adjuster,” and during April–October 2025, China reportedly recorded several consecutive months of zero new US soybean purchases.

China Domestic & Alternative Demand: Strong but Selective

China’s crush activity has been robust in 2026 despite periods of negative margins, with weekly crush volumes running well above the five-year average and port inventories at multi‑year highs . Official balance sheets keep 2026/27 soybean import forecasts near 95–96 million tonnes, signalling that structural demand remains intact even as feed demand faces some pressure from a weaker sow herd and efforts to reduce soymeal inclusion rates .

However, China is diversifying origin risk. Besides Brazil, imports from Argentina, Uruguay and other smaller suppliers are being expanded, while domestic soybean production and the use of state reserves modestly reduce import needs in certain months . New buyers for US beans such as Mexico, Egypt, Pakistan and Vietnam are increasing volumes, but the incremental demand (roughly 3 million‑tonne scale) is far too small to compensate for the loss of a Chinese market that previously absorbed more than 40% of US soybean exports.

Current Price Landscape (EUR-based)

Converted into EUR (approximate, using recent FX levels), current FOB offers indicate a clear price hierarchy across origins. Combined with tariffs and freight, this supports continued preference for Brazilian and other low‑tariff suppliers into China, while domestic Chinese prices have edged lower in August.

Chinese FOB prices in Beijing have slipped over August, consistent with comfortable domestic and imported supply. US FOB prices have been flat over the same period, but with China demand sharply reduced, US farmers in states like Illinois are reportedly facing losses of tens of dollars per acre, as export demand fails to absorb available supply.

Weather & Seasonal Window

In Brazil, August weather forecasts indicate a mixed pattern, with above‑normal rainfall in parts of the North and Centre‑West and drier‑than‑average conditions in other key producing areas such as parts of the Northeast and centre‑south regions . For now this mainly affects field preparation and early planning for the next planting campaign rather than the old‑crop export programme, which remains dominated by already‑harvested supplies.

The traditional US export window to China from September to January has been squeezed by early‑harvested Brazilian beans that can load from late January onwards. With Chinese buyers increasingly front‑loading purchases from South America, US beans are relegated to a narrow seasonal role and risk further displacement if South American weather allows another strong early crop.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For Chinese crushers and feed producers: Maintain a diversified origin book anchored on Brazil and supplemented by opportunistic US purchases only when basis and tariffs are sufficiently offset by futures spreads. Given high inventories and still‑solid imports, prioritize margin protection over volume expansion in Q4 2026.
• For US farmers and exporters: The structural loss of China as a core outlet argues for cautious forward selling on rallies driven by weather scares or macro events. Consider locking in basis and futures when domestic crush or alternative export demand (e.g. Mexico, Pakistan, Vietnam) temporarily tighten local markets, but avoid over‑reliance on a rapid China comeback.
• For European and other importers: The US–China dislocation can periodically create attractive US Gulf or Pacific Northwest offers in EUR terms. Monitor spreads between Brazilian and US FOB plus freight; when the US discount widens, there may be windows to hedge coverage with US origin at favourable basis levels.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR)

• Dalian/China domestic soybeans: Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms as high port stocks and hot‑season demand lull cap any immediate rally, barring a sudden shift in crushers’ buying pace.
• CFR China, Brazil vs US: Brazilian CFR China values expected to remain at a clear discount to US Gulf CFR China over the next three days, keeping Brazilian beans the preferred choice for new nearby purchases.
• FOB Beijing (export parity): Mild downward bias for both conventional and organic Chinese soybeans in EUR as domestic supply remains comfortable and international benchmarks show no strong bullish catalyst in the very short term.