Dried fig harvest up, but rain risk keeps prices on edge

Expected dried fig production is up by around 20% to 94,000 tons, but incoming rain during the critical drying phase keeps both quality and prices highly uncertain. Farmgate and raw material prices remain well below the first symbolic highs, while export offers hold in a relatively wide range. The new Turkish dried fig crop starts on a fundamentally bearish note in terms of volume, but the market is reluctant to price in a full surplus before the drying season is safely over. Figs are highly sensitive to humidity and worm infestation, so the forecast rain this weekend could quickly turn a comfortable supply outlook into a quality‑driven, more selective market. Export quotations and current FOB offers in Europe point to a broadly stable price structure for now, with buyers watching weather and early quality feedback closely before committing to larger forward positions.

Prices

Raw material prices in the origin have moved well below the early symbolic threshold of about 850 TRY/kg, with current farmgate levels around 240 TRY/kg, indicating a significant gap between initial expectations and realizable market prices at this stage of the season. Export offers are quoted between about 8.5 and 11.5 USD/kg, depending on size and quality, which translates to roughly 7.9–10.7 EUR/kg at current FX levels.

FOB offers from Turkey for standard dried figs currently cluster between about 6.2 and 9.6 EUR/kg for conventional origins in Malatya, while higher value organic and specialty products from Izmir trade between roughly 9.7 and 16.1 EUR/kg. Spanish organic figs (Spanish Gold) are priced around 10.9 EUR/kg, underscoring the premium for EU origins and certified qualities. Overall, price levels have been broadly stable over the last few weeks, with only marginal adjustments in the organic segment.

Supply & Demand

The projected harvest of 94,000 tons marks an approximate 20% increase in Turkish dried fig output versus last season, pointing to ample physical availability if realized. However, this headline increase masks the key risk: figs are extremely sensitive during drying, and excessive humidity can trigger worm damage and downgrade large parts of the crop to lower industrial grades.

On the demand side, core importing regions in Europe and the Middle East are currently well covered for nearby needs after steady buying in the previous months. Buyers are therefore in no rush to chase volume, preferring to wait for clearer signals on quality distribution and certification status of the new crop. This contributes to a relatively balanced market tone despite the nominally larger supply.

Weather & Quality Outlook

So far, weather conditions during the early drying period have been favourable, supporting good sugar development and colour in the figs. The critical factor now is the expected change in conditions: forecasts point to a risk of rain over the coming weekend in key western Turkish growing areas, just as drying intensifies. Such rainfall episodes can trap moisture in the fruit, sharply increasing the risk of worm infestation and mould, with direct implications for exportable quality and re-sorting costs.

Looking a few days ahead, temperatures around major fig regions such as Aydın are expected to remain high, with maximums predominantly in the mid‑30s°C and plenty of sunshine over the next week, which is broadly supportive for continued drying once any showers pass. However, even short, localized rain events at this stage can create significant quality dispersion, suggesting that quality premiums and discounts between lots are likely to widen in the near term.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Crop size vs. quality risk: A roughly 20% larger crop initially implies downward pressure on prices, but final export availability will hinge on how much of the harvest can meet high-quality specifications after drying.
• Cost and currency backdrop: Domestic raw material prices around 240 TRY/kg indicate that growers are currently accepting levels well below early season aspirations, while international buyers see relatively competitive EUR‑denominated offers after FX conversion.
• Export price band: The wide export quotation range of about 8.5–11.5 USD/kg mirrors uncertainty over size mix, aflatoxin control and worm damage, with top grades still able to command a clear premium.
• Stable spot structure: FOB offers over the last three weeks show no clear upward or downward breakout, underlining a wait‑and‑see stance as both sides monitor weather and early shipment quality.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers: Consider gradually covering Q4 and early‑2027 needs at current EUR levels for standard grades, but retain flexibility to upgrade to higher qualities once the impact of upcoming rain on defects and sizing is clearer.
• Origin sellers: Avoid aggressive discounting before the drying phase is safely completed; instead, focus on strict sorting and quality control to preserve access to the upper band of export prices.
• Industry users: For industrial applications tolerant of higher defect levels, monitor potential opportunities in downgraded lots should rain‑related quality issues materialise in the coming weeks.

3‑Day Price Indication

• Turkey FOB (Malatya, conventional dried figs): Sideways bias over the next three trading days, with offers broadly steady around 7.5–9.5 EUR/kg depending on size and type.
• Turkey FOB (Izmir, organic figs): Mildly firmer undertone, with prices likely to hold in the 9.5–16.0 EUR/kg band amid limited top‑quality organic supply.
• EU Delivered (industrial users): Stable to slightly softer indications as buyers remain well covered near term, but any confirmed rain‑related quality losses in Turkey could quickly cap further downside.