Dried Pineapple Steady as El Niño Risks Build in Thailand and Vietnam

Dried pineapple prices from Thailand and Vietnam are stable this week, with no fresh upside momentum despite mounting El Niño-related weather risks across both origins. Tightness is limited to specific qualities, and buyers retain negotiating power in the short term. Export offers from Thailand and Vietnam are broadly unchanged compared with late July, as processors still work through contracted fruit and export pipelines. In Thailand, authorities continue to flag below‑average rainfall and strong El Niño probabilities through late 2026, raising concerns for the next pineapple cycles rather than the spot market. Northern and central Vietnam remain in their wet, hot August pattern, but without any major crop damage reports. Tourist‑facing weather commentary for both Thailand and Vietnam highlights typical rainy‑season volatility—frequent showers and heat—yet nothing currently extreme enough to disrupt logistics. For now, buyers can still secure volume, but risk premia for Q4–Q1 should start to firm if dryness persists.

Prices

Spot indications for conventional dried pineapple remain flat week‑on‑week. Thai FCA Europe and Vietnamese FOB origin offers show no change versus 1 August, pointing to a broadly balanced nearby market with limited fresh demand signals from buyers.

Supply & Demand

Thailand’s broader agricultural outlook is dominated by El Niño, with official projections pointing to below‑average rainfall and uneven distribution across the second half of 2026. While pineapple is not singled out, similar plantation crops face heightened yield‑risk if irrigation is limited during key growth phases. For now, processors appear adequately supplied from the ongoing summer crop, keeping dried prices anchored.

In Vietnam, August sits firmly in the wet, hot season, with high humidity and frequent showers across northern and central regions, but without reports of severe flooding or storms disrupting fruit sourcing or transport in the last few days. Export demand for dried fruit in general is steady, with some end‑users still cautious on forward cover amid uncertain consumer demand in key markets.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TH, VN)

Thailand (main pineapple regions): Current commentary suggests typical rainy‑season conditions—heat with intermittent showers—rather than acute flooding, but El Niño probabilities above 80–90% into late 2026 imply a high risk of below‑normal rainfall and localized drought in coming months. This raises medium‑term concerns for both the tail of the summer crop and the upcoming winter crop if irrigation is constrained.

Vietnam (northern/central areas): Recent travel and weather guidance describes August as hot and one of the wetter months, with regular rain but still workable conditions for transport and fieldwork, provided operations remain flexible. No large‑scale disruptions to fruit or logistics have surfaced in the last 3 days, but localized storms remain a standing risk for harvest and drying operations.

Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 days)

• Thai dried pineapple, FCA NL: Sideways bias over the next 3 days, with offers expected to remain close to 3.90–3.97 EUR/kg. Limited fresh demand and stable logistics argue against immediate price moves.
• Vietnam dried pineapple, FOB Hanoi: Stable around 6.70–6.80 EUR/kg near term, with exporters cautious but not yet pricing in weather risk premia.

Trading Recommendations

• Buyers (industry/retail): Use the current flat market to extend coverage modestly into Q4 2026, especially on Thai origin, as El Niño‑related downside to yields could surface in later cycles if dryness intensifies.
• Sellers (processors/exporters): Maintain offer discipline; avoid aggressive discounting below current ranges given elevated climate risk and uncertainty around later‑season fruit availability.
• Traders: Focus on quality and size spreads; with flat headline prices, relative value between Thai and Vietnamese grades, and between cut sizes, offers the clearest trading opportunity.

Over the next 3 days, regional dried pineapple prices in both Thailand (export‑oriented) and Vietnam are expected to remain directionally flat in EUR terms, with volatility primarily linked to FX and freight rather than fruit fundamentals.