Farmers Hold Back as Ukrainian Sunflower Prices Edge Higher

Ukrainian sunflower prices for the new crop are stabilising with a firm undertone as farmers largely refuse to sell at earlier low levels, while export demand to Bulgaria and Turkey is picking up. Crushers’ forward ideas around 19,000–19,500 UAH/t are mostly ignored, and spot asking levels have moved into the 21,000–22,000 UAH/t CPT range. The market is thus caught between weak domestic processing, constrained Black Sea logistics and a visibly tighter farmer selling pace. At the same time, renewed export interest in seeds and oil toward the Danube and Balkan markets is providing a floor. Nearby physical indications in Ukraine and neighbouring origins confirm only modest week‑on‑week price moves, but the balance of risks for the coming weeks looks skewed to the upside if external demand holds and weather remains benign.

Prices

Last week, bids for new‑crop sunflower in Ukraine adjusted upward by roughly 500–1,000 UAH/t, with asking prices now mainly around 21,000–22,000 UAH/t CPT, while some processors still post forward ideas at only 19,000–19,500 UAH/t CPT. Farmers are largely refusing to commit at these lower levels and are holding stocks in anticipation of better terms.

Converted at an indicative rate of 40 UAH/EUR, current asking levels equate to roughly 525–550 EUR/t CPT plant. Spot FCA offers for Ukrainian black sunflower seeds in Odesa and Kyiv are indicated around 0.49 EUR/kg (approx. 490 EUR/t FCA), while FOB Odesa seeds are near 0.591 EUR/kg (about 590 EUR/t FOB), showing a modest uptick versus mid‑August levels. Neighbouring Bulgaria and Moldova show mixed moves, with some kernel prices easing in recent days.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the new Ukrainian sunflower harvest is approaching with expectations of higher production than last season, but farmer marketing is slow. Many growers are well capitalised after previous campaigns and do not feel compelled to sell into what they see as low opening bids, reinforcing the move higher in asking prices for raw seed.

Domestic crushing remains constrained after recent disruptions to Black Sea export terminals and a shift of many plants toward rapeseed processing, which had temporarily better margins. However, export interest for sunflower seeds has increased, especially toward ports shipping to Bulgaria and Turkey, where traders report several tens of thousands of tonnes already contracted for early new‑crop shipment. This growing external pull helps absorb supply that domestic crushers are not fully taking.

Fundamentals & Weather

Internationally, the broader Black Sea oilseed complex is being shaped by both logistics and regional crop prospects. Ukrainian and Russian sunflower areas are generally in good condition, while recent heat in parts of the EU has trimmed yield expectations there, underpinning regional prices despite local volatility. Market participants also watch Russian export disruptions and Turkish policy decisions, which could periodically tighten nearby seed and oil availability.

In Ukraine’s key sunflower belt (Odesa region and central areas), late‑August weather has been seasonally warm with scattered showers, broadly supportive for late growth and early ripening. No immediate large‑scale weather threat is visible in the short term, though any prolonged heat or dryness into September could affect final oil content and test farmer confidence.

Trading Outlook

• For farmers: The firming from 19,000–19,500 to 21,000–22,000 UAH/t CPT suggests that initial lows may be behind us, but logistics and processing risks remain high. A staged selling strategy with small volumes hedged at current levels, and the balance held for potential post‑harvest rallies, can balance risk and opportunity.
• For crushers: With farmer selling still limited, processors needing seed coverage may face further basis strengthening, especially in export‑oriented regions. Consider extending coverage on price dips or where logistics advantages allow margins to be locked in, particularly if export oil premiums remain relatively firm.
• For international buyers: Nearby Ukrainian seed and oil offer a price advantage versus some competing origins, but shipment execution and port security are key variables. Diversifying between origins (Ukraine, EU Balkans, and possibly Russia where accessible) and staggering purchases over the next 4–8 weeks reduces exposure to sudden logistics shocks.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR)

• Ukraine (FCA Odesa/Kyiv, seeds): Sideways to slightly firmer over the next three days, as farmer selling stays cautious and export interest persists.
• Ukraine (FOB Odesa, seeds and meal): Mildly supportive bias, tracking any improvement in Black Sea logistics and regional oil demand.
• Bulgaria & Moldova (FCA/FOB seeds and kernels): Mostly stable in the very near term, with some upside risk if Ukrainian export flows to Turkey and EU processors accelerate.