Firm Cottonseed Cake in North India as Tight Stocks Meet Steady Feed Demand

Cottonseed cake prices in northern India remain firm, supported by tight old-crop stocks, steady livestock-feed demand and expensive alternative protein meals, while upside is capped by high feed costs for farmers. The next decisive driver will be the size and timing of India’s new cotton crop, which will determine seed and cake availability in the coming ginning season. Cottonseed cake in Haryana and Punjab is trading around EUR 48–51 per 100 kg, with Bathinda posting a small premium, reflecting comparatively tighter local availability. Limited selling by stockists and regular offtake by feed manufacturers and dairy farmers are preventing any meaningful price correction, even as demand is mostly need-based. With the new processing season yet to ramp up and monsoon-dependent crop outcomes still uncertain in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan, the market is likely to stay supported but range-bound in the near term.

Prices

In northern India, cottonseed cake prices are holding firm amid restricted supplies. In Haryana and Punjab, values are around INR 4,400–4,700 per quintal, equivalent to roughly EUR 48.05–51.31 per 100 kg at an indicative rate of INR 95.44 per USD and 1.10 USD/EUR. Bathinda is higher at INR 4,800–4,850 per quintal (about EUR 52.40–52.96 per 100 kg), signalling comparatively tighter local stocks and consistent demand.

Price support stems from limited selling by stockists, gradual depletion of old-crop stocks and steady inquiries from livestock-feed users. However, buying is mostly for immediate requirements, as high feed costs constrain the ability of smaller livestock owners to build inventories or chase higher-priced protein meals.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the new cotton-processing season in India has not yet started in full, keeping cottonseed availability tight. Stocks from the previous crop are declining, and many stockists appear content to release material slowly into a firm market rather than accelerate selling. This behaviour, together with structurally strong demand in key dairy belts, underpins current price levels.

Demand remains fundamentally sound but clearly need-based. Cottonseed cake’s role as a protein-rich feed ingredient is particularly important in dairy-focused regions, where milk price incentives and pockets of constrained fodder availability encourage continued usage. At the same time, elevated prices across alternative feeds such as mustard cake and other oilseed meals are limiting substitution away from cottonseed cake, providing an additional layer of support.

Fundamentals & Weather

The key fundamental uncertainty now is India’s 2026/27 cotton crop. Acreage dynamics across Gujarat, Maharashtra, Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan and the progression of the southwest monsoon will determine seed output and, downstream, cottonseed cake supplies in the upcoming ginning season. Recent discussions around monsoon patterns point to spatially uneven rains, with intermittent showers over Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan and variable conditions in central India, which could keep production risks in focus.

Market participants are closely watching rainfall distribution, pest incidence and boll development. Adequate and timely rains would support boll formation and increase seed availability, easing the cottonseed cake balance later in the season. Conversely, any renewed weather stress or pest outbreaks would tighten the seed complex further and could lend additional support to cake prices despite already high feed costs.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

Near-term, the cottonseed cake market in northern India is expected to stay supported as long as old-crop stocks run down slowly and the ginning sector has not fully restarted. A significantly larger new crop and earlier arrivals would be required to generate clear downward pressure. With demand constrained to regular needs and substitution options still expensive, the most likely scenario is a firm but relatively range-bound market over the coming weeks.

• Feed manufacturers: Consider staggered coverage for 4–6 weeks of requirements, avoiding excessive forward bookings until clearer signals emerge on new-crop size and arrivals.
• Dairy farmers and small livestock owners: Prioritise ration optimisation rather than volume expansion of cottonseed cake, given tight margins and limited scope for price declines in the very short term.
• Stockists and traders: Maintain a cautiously long bias while monitoring monsoon performance and early crop-condition reports; be prepared to accelerate selling if signs of a larger-than-expected seed crop materialise.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• North India (Haryana & Punjab ex-Bathinda): Sideways to slightly firm; prices likely to hold near EUR 48–51 per 100 kg.
• Bathinda (Punjab): Mildly firm bias; small premium versus surrounding markets expected to persist given comparatively tighter local stocks.
• Overall India cotton complex: Soft seeds and by-products remain weather- and crop-news sensitive; no major downside expected before clearer indications on new-crop arrivals.