Floods in Morocco and EU Surplus: Potato Trade Flows Flip in 2025/26

Morocco’s 2025/26 ware potato market has been defined by an extreme supply shock at home and surplus-driven price pressure in Europe, pushing Moroccan imports above 12,000 tonnes and briefly tightening EU oversupply. Near-term trade flows now hinge on how quickly Moroccan production in the Loukkos basin recovers and whether Europe repeats this year’s heavy old-crop carryout. After an unprecedented flood‑induced shortfall in early 2026, Morocco turned sharply to European potatoes just as EU producers were struggling with low prices and heavy inventories. The resulting record import season was highly concentrated in spring and served more as an emergency bridge than a structural shift in Morocco’s trade pattern, leaving both Moroccan buyers and EU sellers exposed to how the next harvest and weather patterns unfold.

Prices

Domestic Moroccan table potato prices spiked during the January–February 2026 flood disruption, before record imports helped cap further gains in late spring. Import volumes above 12,000 tonnes between July 2025 and June 2026—about 50% more than the previous five seasons combined—signalled just how tight local supply became and why price relief increasingly depended on foreign arrivals.

In Europe, the price picture was almost the mirror image. Old‑crop surpluses, notably an estimated 500,000-tonne overhang in the Netherlands, dragged spring 2026 prices down and created aggressive export offers into Morocco. Recent European table potato quotations around EUR 20–27.5 per 100 kg for processing categories underline that, despite some drought‑related yield concerns for the new crop, the market is still digesting sizeable stocks and remains sensitive to any additional export demand.

Processed potato derivatives reflect the same generally soft European raw‑material cost base. Polish-origin potato starch in central Europe has traded broadly stable around EUR 0.63/kg FCA Lodz through July–August 2026, suggesting no acute tightness in industrial-use potatoes despite regional weather issues.

Supply & Demand Balance

The decisive driver of Morocco’s 2025/26 dynamics was weather. Exceptionally heavy rainfall and flooding in January–February 2026 across northern regions, especially the Loukkos River basin, destroyed large areas of ware potatoes. Some farms reportedly lost entire crops, sharply cutting domestic availability and forcing buyers to bid more aggressively for remaining local lots.

Imports then surged. Between March and May alone, roughly 78% of the season’s more than 12,000 tonnes of table potato imports arrived, underscoring how rapidly the supply gap opened and had to be covered. The Netherlands supplied more than half of these shipments, France nearly one-third, and Belgium most of the rest, effectively turning the EU into Morocco’s emergency buffer for household consumption needs.

On the European side, the same period was marked by an opposite imbalance: large old‑crop inventories and weakening prices. Dutch surplus stocks of about 500,000 tonnes signalled a market seeking outlets, while test digs and crop reports across Europe in August now point to below‑average new-crop yields after episodes of drought and heat stress, even if recent rains have improved conditions in some zones.

This combination—Moroccan deficit and EU surplus—created powerful arbitrage incentives. Moroccan buyers could import competitively priced potatoes to stabilise domestic availability, while EU shippers gained a much-needed destination to offload part of their excess, especially from the Netherlands.

Weather Outlook

For Morocco’s key northern basins, including Loukkos, early September weather forecasts point to more seasonally normal patterns rather than the extreme flooding seen in early 2026. While this reduces immediate flood risk, soil structure damage and delayed field operations from last season’s inundations may still limit short‑term yield recovery in some plots.

Across core EU potato regions, recent weather has been mixed. After summer heat and dryness trimmed yield potential, late‑August rains are improving moisture conditions, especially for later-maturing fields. However, industry updates continue to highlight below-trend tuber growth and quality concerns, indicating that the 2026 European crop is unlikely to fully repeat the heavy surplus levels that underpinned this spring’s very low prices.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Morocco’s record import season was clearly supply‑driven rather than demand‑led. The 12,000‑tonne inflow between July 2025 and June 2026 exceeded the combined total of the previous five seasons by about 50% and more than doubled the earlier 2008/09 record. Such a spike is unlikely to persist once domestic production normalises and local prices become less detached from historic averages.

European exporters, by contrast, benefited from timing. Morocco’s urgent deficit coincided with a season in which EU producers—especially in the Netherlands—were searching for alternative outlets for old‑crop potatoes faced with pronounced downward price pressure. Trade into Morocco acted as a safety valve, slightly easing the surplus but not fundamentally rebalancing the wider European market.

Looking ahead, the fundamental picture suggests that Morocco will revert closer to its usual, much lower import base if 2026/27 weather is more benign. Nonetheless, this season has proved that when climate shocks hit North Africa, Morocco can very quickly emerge as a high‑volume, short‑term demand centre for EU table potatoes, particularly from the Netherlands and France.

Market & Trading Outlook

The next months will be shaped by two main uncertainties: how rapidly Moroccan production in flood‑hit regions recovers, and whether European yields stay sufficiently constrained by drought impacts to prevent another very heavy surplus. If Moroccan output rebounds and EU availability tightens modestly, bilateral trade flows are likely to fall sharply from the 2025/26 record.

However, climate variability across the Mediterranean and Europe is increasing, raising the probability of repeated weather‑driven imbalances. For Morocco, both drought and excessive rainfall now pose material risks to potato production. For EU producers, oscillations between surplus and deficit years will keep export opportunities, such as this season’s Moroccan demand spike, strategically important.

Focused Trading Recommendations

• Moroccan buyers: Use any near‑term improvement in local supply to rebuild safety stocks and reduce reliance on spot imports; consider flexible contracts with Dutch and French suppliers that can be scaled up quickly in case of renewed weather shocks.
• EU exporters (especially NL/FR/BE): Treat the 2025/26 Moroccan window as opportunistic rather than structural; maintain market presence but avoid overcommitting volumes at today’s relatively low EU prices in case 2026/27 yields disappoint.
• Industrial processors & starch users: With EU raw potatoes and potato starch still reasonably priced, secure a portion of 2026/27 requirements now while keeping some open volume to benefit if European weather normalises and further pressure emerges.

3-Day Directional Price Indications (EUR)

• Northwest EU table potatoes (ex-farm, main crop): Sideways to mildly firm in the next 3 days, as early harvest pressure is balanced by below‑average yield expectations.
• EU processing potatoes (Benelux, free market): Slight upside bias from the EUR 20–27.5/100 kg range as processors compete for limited high‑quality new crop, while old‑crop stocks decline.
• European potato starch (central Europe): Largely stable around current offers near EUR 0.63/kg FCA for the coming days, with no immediate catalyst for sharp moves.