German Feed Oats Flat Despite Black Sea Disruptions

German feed oat prices in northern Germany remain flat around EUR 195/t EXW, with no immediate reaction to the Black Sea export blockade and only limited upside risk in the very short term. The German cash oat market is calm as the 2026 cereal harvest has largely replenished local feed supplies and demand from compounders stays modest. Domestic feed grain availability is comfortable, and market reports describe EU feed oats as well supplied, with Germany playing only a secondary role in feed rations dominated by barley, corn and wheat. At the same time, Ukraine’s Black Sea export problems are tightening regional logistics but so far without a clear oat-specific premium. Near-term price direction in Germany will depend more on regional feed grain competition and weather for late-harvested crops than on international oats futures.

Prices

In Drentwede (Lower Saxony), feed-grade oats (moisture max. 14%) are indicated around EUR 0.195/kg EXW, i.e. roughly EUR 195/t, unchanged over the past two weeks and about EUR 7/t above early August levels based on recent quotes.

EU physical benchmarks for feed oats in southern Germany are reported near EUR 175–180/t for August/early September delivery, also essentially flat in recent days, signalling a broadly balanced regional market with no acute tightness.

By comparison, German feed barley delivered Hamburg/Rostock is indicated around EUR 170/t, keeping oats as a slightly higher-priced but niche feed component versus other cereals.

Supply & Demand

Preliminary German statistics point to a 2026 cereals harvest around 37.5 million tonnes (excluding corn), broadly in line with average levels, indicating no systemic grain shortage. Oats remain a minor share of total cereals but benefit from this overall comfortable supply backdrop.

Recent EU analysis still characterises feed oats as adequately supplied, with area and production in 2026/27 only marginally lower than last season after a previous uptick driven by attractive margins. Market commentary notes that feed compounders in Germany and neighbouring states currently prioritise corn, barley and soybean meal, using oats only opportunistically, which caps demand-pull for prices.

In Ukraine, oats are a relatively small export grain, but the broader blockage of the Black Sea ports around Odesa has sharply reduced total grain shipments to about one-fifth of normal capacity since early August. This is tightening regional logistics and may gradually support EU feed prices in general, but so far the impact on German oat differentials appears limited.

Weather Outlook (Northern Germany)

Drentwede in Lower Saxony is a typical cereals region in north-west Germany. Over the coming three days, regional forecasts call for mostly mild late-summer conditions with scattered showers and temperatures largely in the low-to-mid 20s °C, with no extreme heat or heavy rainfall events highlighted in current outlooks for northern Germany.

With the main oat harvest largely completed, this pattern mainly supports post-harvest field work and grain quality preservation rather than yields. The absence of weather stress reduces the risk of any last-minute quality downgrades or logistical delays that could otherwise tighten local feed oat availability.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Recent German and EU market reports emphasise stable cereal markets, with particular attention on maize downgrades and barley softness rather than oats. This reinforces the view that oats are riding on the coattails of the broader feed complex, with no commodity-specific shock.

Internationally, oats futures in Chicago have recently stabilised with a modest carry structure, reflecting cautious demand and limited speculative positioning; EU cash markets have largely mirrored this stability. While the Black Sea situation constitutes a bullish risk factor for grains overall, the lack of a clear oat-specific supply constraint in key exporters and steady EU stocks temper any immediate rally potential for German feed oats.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Feed buyers (Germany): With EXW levels around EUR 195/t in northern Germany and comfortable local grain supply, consider hand-to-mouth purchases for September while monitoring any sharp moves in barley and corn as main competitors in rations.
• Producers: At current flat prices and benign weather, holding limited additional stocks into Q4 may be justified, but upside appears capped unless Black Sea risks escalate further or EU feed balances tighten unexpectedly.
• Traders: Basis levels in northern Germany look stable; short-term opportunities are likely to arise more from cross-cereal spreads (oats vs. barley/corn) than from outright oat price moves.

3-Day Price Indication (Region DE)

• Northern Germany (Drentwede, EXW): Prices seen steady around EUR 195/t over the next three days, with a neutral to slightly softer bias if barley and corn weaken further.
• Broader German cash market: Regional feed oat quotes are expected to remain in a EUR 175–185/t range, reflecting balanced supply and only modest end-user buying interest.
• Risk factors to watch (very short term): Any escalation of Black Sea tensions affecting general grain sentiment, or sudden shifts in German feed compounders’ grain mix, could nudge quotes, but large moves are unlikely within three days.