German triticale edges lower but stays firm on solid feed demand

Triticale feed prices in northern Germany have eased slightly this week but remain historically firm, supported by solid compound feed demand and only moderately improved grain supply. With no major weather threats and feed wheat and barley acting as the main benchmarks, the short‑term picture for triticale is broadly sideways with a mild downside bias. After a relatively mixed 2026 grain harvest in Germany, triticale continues to trade as a niche feed grain closely linked to the broader feed complex. Official harvest estimates point to a slightly below‑average overall cereal crop, but not a shortage, which caps further upside for secondary grains like triticale. At the same time, compound feed production data show robust usage of cereals in poultry and pig rations, keeping underlying demand stable. In Lower Saxony, local buyers still show interest for nearby positions, but are increasingly price‑sensitive as alternative feed grains become more competitively priced.

Prices

Current ex‑farm triticale feed prices in Drentwede, Lower Saxony, are around EUR 0.228/kg (≈ EUR 228/t) EXW as of 10 September 2026, down slightly from earlier in the week but still above levels seen in late August. This puts Drentwede broadly in the middle to upper part of the German triticale price range, with Bavarian quotations currently indicated around EUR 160–175/t depending on location and delivery period.

Regional market commentary for Germany confirms firm domestic triticale prices in a corridor of roughly EUR 160–185/t, with Lower Saxony tending towards the upper half on strong local feed demand. Compared to early harvest levels, the market has seen a gradual firming, but the most recent small pullback in Drentwede suggests nearby offers are encountering some resistance from feed mills and traders.

Supply & Demand

Germany’s 2026 cereal harvest (excluding maize) is estimated at about 37.5 million tonnes, around 5–6% below 2025, reflecting lower average yields after episodes of weather stress. Within this, triticale remains a minor but important feed grain, primarily grown on lighter soils and used close to production. National statistics confirm stable or slightly lower triticale areas in some regions, but without a sharp contraction that would imply scarcity.

On the demand side, the latest mixed‑feed structure data for Germany indicate steady to slightly higher production of poultry and pig feed in the 2025/26 season, underpinning cereal usage for feed. Market commentary from German triticale traders highlights ongoing interest from regional compounders, who value triticale’s good feed characteristics but remain highly price‑driven versus feed wheat and barley. As long as overall grain supplies remain adequate, triticale is unlikely to price itself far above competing feed grains.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE)

For Drentwede in Lower Saxony, the short‑term weather outlook for 12–14 September 2026 shows mostly cloudy conditions with mild temperatures around 20–21°C, occasional light rain and a temporary fog warning in the mornings. With the 2026 triticale harvest largely completed, this pattern mainly affects late field work and logistics rather than yields. No significant weather disruptions for grain storage or short‑haul transport are expected.

At the broader European level, the financial impact of the early‑summer heatwave on grain crops appears manageable, though some countries such as France and Hungary saw notable yield losses. Germany also experienced heat‑related reductions, but current official harvest figures suggest these have been partly offset by better conditions later in the season. As a result, weather is not currently a major bullish driver for German triticale prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Cereal balance: A slightly smaller German grain crop in 2026 tightens the balance compared to 2025 but does not create a deficit, keeping triticale relatively well supplied.
• Feed demand: Recent feed sector statistics and market reports point to firm cereal demand from livestock producers, particularly in pig and poultry, supporting floor levels for feed grains including triticale.
• Competition with other feed grains: Triticale prices are closely tied to feed wheat and barley benchmarks, with traders watching those markets for direction. Where wheat and barley become cheaper, triticale faces substitution pressure and limited scope for further price increases.
• Trade flows: Cross‑border trade in mixed grains and triticale between Poland, Germany and neighbouring EU states remains relatively small and opportunistic, reinforcing the importance of local supply‑demand in setting prices.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• Producers (DE): With ex‑farm prices around EUR 228/t in Drentwede and regional corridors up to roughly EUR 185/t elsewhere, selling a portion of remaining old‑crop stocks on any small rallies looks prudent, while holding a base volume as insurance against potential feed‑grain strength.
• Feed mills: Nearby coverage appears advisable given firm, but not overheated, prices. Light scale‑down buying on minor dips can secure autumn needs without chasing the market higher.
• Traders: Basis‑driven opportunities may emerge between regions such as Bavaria and northern Germany, where differentials to local benchmarks (wheat/barley) and logistics costs can create short‑term arbitrage windows.

Over the next three trading days (12–14 September 2026), triticale prices in Drentwede and wider Lower Saxony are expected to move sideways within a narrow band, with a slight downward tendency if feed wheat and barley ease further. Short‑term regional indications point to roughly EUR 225–230/t EXW for standard feed triticale in northern Germany, and about EUR 160–175/t in southern regions, assuming stable external markets and no abrupt changes in feed demand.