Hazelnuts Hold Firm as Turkish FOB Softens and Georgian Premium Widens

Hazelnut prices are broadly steady to slightly softer, with Turkish FOB kernels easing while Georgian origins in Poland hold firm at a clear premium in EUR terms. Tight global supply from previous Turkish crop damage and ongoing quality concerns continues to underpin prices despite some recent weakness in export offers. In the near term, buyers see a window of slightly improved availability from Turkey as exporters adjust to slower shipments and quality issues, while Georgian kernels remain supported by strong EU demand for non‑Turkish origins and limited high‑quality supply. Weather in key Black Sea regions is seasonally mixed but not yet threatening the 2026 crop, keeping the market focused more on trade flows, currency and quality than on immediate weather risk. Overall, the tone is mildly soft on Turkish side but still structurally firm for Georgian material.

Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and converted into EUR/kg for comparison, using recent EUR/USD levels.

Turkish FOB kernel values have eased modestly since late May, widening the premium for Georgian kernels delivered into EU (Poland). Recent Turkish export statistics show a sharp drop in shipped volume year-on-year, but with much higher unit values, underlining a still-tight global balance.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant global supplier, but 2025 frost and drought damage has kept 2025/26 supply constrained and pushed average export prices significantly higher. In the first months of 2026, Turkish hazelnut export volumes fell by around one-third versus last year, while revenues rose on the back of higher prices and quality sorting, reinforcing the premium structure along the value chain.

EU demand is steady, with Germany, Italy, France and Poland still among the top destinations for Turkish kernels, reflecting robust industrial offtake in confectionery and spreads. Trade‑exchange data and industry reports indicate that the global market remains structurally tight into 2026 due to Turkey’s lower yields and persistent quality issues in some Caucasus origins, including Georgia. As a result, buyers are increasingly diversifying between Turkish, Georgian, Italian and Chilean origins, which supports the premium for high‑grade Georgian kernels in Europe.

On the demand side, live Turkish free‑market (serbest piyasa) quotations show farmer prices holding at elevated levels versus historical norms, despite some recent softening, confirming that domestic sellers are in no rush to liquidate stocks quickly. Meanwhile, EU food‑safety and quality controls remain strict, with ongoing RASFF border‑rejection notifications on aflatoxins in nuts from Turkey, pushing some processors to pay up for origins with more consistent quality performance.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamental balance sheets for 2025/26 still point to a constrained global hazelnut market, even as some alternative origins (Italy, Chile, US/Oregon) have partially offset Turkish shortfalls. For Georgia specifically, industry analyses highlight “ongoing quality challenges”, which limit exportable premium volumes and help explain the current EUR spreads over Turkish material.

Weather in the wider Black Sea region, including Georgia, has recently been seasonally variable with showers and moderate temperatures, but no major new frost or drought signals reported over the past few days that would immediately threaten the 2026 crop potential. Current market commentary instead focuses on political and policy uncertainty in Turkey and on export‑demand fluctuations rather than on any acute weather shock. As we move further into summer, traders will monitor rainfall distribution and heat episodes in Georgian growing areas closely, but for now weather is a background factor rather than a primary driver.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Recent market commentary from specialized nut‑trade services suggests that Turkish hazelnut demand is turning more cautious, with some buyers covered and watching for further price corrections, especially for mid‑range qualities. At the same time, global tightness and elevated farmer price expectations in Turkey limit the downside, keeping the market in a high but volatile range.

• For EU industrial buyers: Consider using current Turkish FOB softness to top up nearby coverage, especially for standard grades, while maintaining strategic volumes in Georgian and other alternative origins to manage quality and supply‑chain risk.
• For Georgian sellers: The current EUR premium over Turkish kernels remains justified by quality and diversification demand; selective forward sales at today’s levels look reasonable, while retaining some exposure in case of further Turkish supply shocks.
• For traders: The widening spread between Turkish and Georgian kernels offers inter‑origin arbitrage opportunities, particularly on a delivered‑EU basis, but carry and quality‑adjustment costs must be managed carefully.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

Based on current quotes, recent Turkish free‑market indications and short‑term demand signals, we see limited price movement over the next three days:

• Georgia → EU (Poland, FCA): Premium kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm, 15+) expected broadly stable around 9.9–11.0 EUR/kg, with any moves likely within ±0.1 EUR/kg given tight high‑quality supply.
• Turkey, Istanbul FOB: Natural kernels 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm likely to trade sideways to slightly softer around 7.3–7.9 EUR/kg as exporters seek to stimulate demand but face firm grower floors.
• EU delivered mixed origin blends: Industrial blends expected to remain firm, with only minor discounts available for lower grades and origins with higher quality‑risk profiles.