Hazelnuts Reset Lower as Turkish Floor Price Meets Rebalanced Demand

Hazelnut prices have corrected sharply from 2025’s spike as Turkey announces a higher 2026/27 support price in lira terms, but only a modest rise in US‑dollar value. Combined with a recovering Turkish crop and slower exports after last season’s rationing by price, the market is shifting from extreme tightness toward a more balanced, still historically firm, environment. After two highly volatile seasons, the hazelnut market is entering 2026/27 with more comfortable supply expectations and a clear policy anchor from Turkey’s Grain Board. The new TRY250/kg floor price, up 28% year on year in local terms but only about 9% in dollar terms, indicates Ankara’s intention to support growers without reigniting a speculative rally. Export prices for Turkish kernels have already eased back close to pre‑spike levels, encouraging some demand to return, though buyers remain cautious and continue to diversify origins and shorten contract tenors.

Prices

The benchmark 11/13 mm Turkish hazelnut price has fallen from a peak of around US$1,790/100 kg in September 2025 to roughly US$850 by 3 August 2026, more than halving but still above the US$550–780/100 kg band common between 2017 and 2023. In EUR terms this suggests indicative spot levels slightly above EUR 8/kg for standard Turkish natural kernels FOB, consistent with recent traded indications.

Current offers confirm this softer but elevated structure: non‑organic Turkish natural kernels 11–13 mm are around EUR 7.5/kg FOB Istanbul, and 13–15 mm around EUR 8.0/kg. Organic Turkish kernels are trading markedly higher, with 11–13 mm near EUR 19.4/kg and 13–15 mm about EUR 18.3/kg FOB Izmir, while processed organic forms (blanched, roasted, chopped) are quoted above EUR 22/kg. Overall, flat week‑on‑week moves show that much of the adjustment to the new Turkish floor price is already priced in.

Supply & Demand

Turkey’s Grain Board has set the 2026/27 hazelnut purchasing floor price at TRY250/kg, up from TRY195/kg a year earlier. Despite the 28% increase in lira terms, lira depreciation means this equates to only roughly US$5.25/kg, delivering the smallest year‑on‑year dollar gain of the past four campaigns and limiting the upward shock to export pricing.

On the supply side, Turkey’s 2026/27 in‑shell harvest is projected at about 810,000 tonnes by international industry bodies, with domestic estimates nearer 700,000 tonnes. Both point to a solid recovery from 2025/26’s approximate 518,000‑tonne crop, but not to an exceptional surplus. This rebound, together with better crops in the Americas and Central Asia, moves the global market away from acute tightness toward a more balanced stance.

Demand remains structurally healthy but has been tempered by the previous price spike. Turkish shelled‑kernel exports between September 2025 and July 2026 fell 37% year on year to about 186,400 tonnes, as higher prices rationed demand and incentivised substitution. Buyers have diversified toward alternative origins and are more reliant on short‑term spot or nearby contracts rather than large forward commitments, signalling lingering caution over Turkish price and policy volatility.

Fundamentals & Producer Economics

The new floor price materially improves Turkish growers’ lira‑denominated revenues, supporting orchard maintenance and replanting decisions after a volatile period. However, the relatively modest increase in dollar terms, combined with the sharp correction from last year’s peak kernel prices, reduces the risk of another demand‑destructive rally driven by speculative expectations.

From an international buyer perspective, current kernel prices are no longer at crisis levels but remain historically elevated, especially for organic and value‑added forms. The earlier price surge has structurally changed purchasing behaviour: confectionery and chocolate manufacturers have accelerated recipe optimisation and partial substitution with other nuts, which may cap the speed of demand recovery even as prices normalise.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

With a larger Turkish crop approaching and the new floor broadly in line with pre‑announcement trader expectations, near‑term price risk appears skewed sideways to slightly lower into the main marketing window, barring weather or quality shocks at harvest. The main medium‑term uncertainty lies in how quickly demand lost to high prices returns and whether buyers maintain diversified origin strategies.

Trading outlook (next 4–8 weeks)

• Industrial buyers: Gradually rebuild cover for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on price dips close to current FOB Turkey levels, but avoid over‑extending forward coverage until the size and quality of the 2026/27 crop are confirmed.
• Origin holders in Turkey: Given the supportive floor in lira terms but subdued export pace, consider active sales on rallies rather than hoarding stocks, especially for standard natural grades where competing origins are gaining share.
• Spot traders: Focus on arbitrage between Turkish and alternative origins; premiums for European‑delivered non‑Turkish kernels may remain firm as large buyers maintain diversification strategies.

3‑day directional view

• FOB Turkey (natural kernels): Stable to slightly softer in EUR terms as the market digests the new floor price and awaits more concrete crop data.
• FOB Turkey (organic kernels): Largely stable; niche demand and limited supply should keep these grades relatively firm versus conventional.
• European FCA (non‑Turkish origins): Steady with a mild upward bias, supported by ongoing demand for origin diversification and logistics premia.