Hazelnuts: Turkish Crop Near 700,000 t Keeps Prices Surprisingly Stable

Turkish hazelnut prices remain under pressure despite the sharply higher TMO floor price of TRY 250/kg, as a near-700,000 t crop, ample carry-over and farmer liquidity needs keep the free market surprisingly stable. Price spreads between sizes are normalising after last season’s extremes, with limited upside for bulk kernels but some support for top natural quality. The early 2026/27 harvest is progressing unevenly across Turkey’s Black Sea region, with slow drying in the east but good inflows from western areas. Market participants now broadly align around a Turkish crop closer to 700,000 t than 800,000 t, with generally better quality than last year and a significantly smaller share of small kernels. At the same time, exporters are largely pre-covered, the TMO is booked out for September intake slots, and a major multinational buyer is expected to step in from mid-September – a combination that should cap downside but may only gradually translate into firmer prices.

Prices

Spot prices delivered Central Europe continue to edge lower from last season’s exceptional highs. Week-on-week, standard natural and roasted grades softened further, with the most pronounced move in roasted 11–13 mm kernels (−0.58 EUR/kg), while hazelnut paste was marginally firmer.

On a broader time horizon, benchmark prices are still down around 7% versus last quarter, −42% over six months and more than −50% year-on-year, though they remain about 17% above the three-year average and 25% above the five-year average. This confirms that the market is still correcting from last season’s spike rather than entering a structurally depressed phase.

FOB Turkey indications in Istanbul mirror this easing: natural 13–15 mm kernels are currently offered around 7.50 EUR/kg (down from roughly 7.85 EUR/kg a week earlier), and 11–13 mm at about 6.97 EUR/kg, with roasted diced and meal grades around 7.05 and 6.10 EUR/kg respectively. The continuing discount of free-market prices to the TMO’s TRY 250–255/kg floor underlines the prevailing oversupply and muted buying interest.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish crop outlook has consolidated around roughly 700,000 t in-shell, at the lower end of earlier 700,000–800,000 t discussions and somewhat below the latest international projections. Early cracking results show a markedly healthier size distribution than last year: about 55% large kernels (13–15 mm and above), 37% in the standard 11–13 mm range and only around 8% under 9 mm.

Regional quality is mixed. Low-altitude coastal orchards in the eastern belt between Trabzon and Samsun report noticeable damage from brown marmorated stink bugs, but the defects are clearly visible and can be sorted out. Mid and higher altitudes (250–1,000 m), including the key province of Ordu, are reporting significantly better quality, with first results exceeding last year’s standard.

Outside Turkey, the Caucasus shows a split picture. Georgia is struggling with persistent rains and quality issues around Zugdidi, while high farmer price expectations meet weak demand, especially from Italy, where the domestic crop looks better this year. Azerbaijan, in contrast, reports good to very good quality and is positioning offers deliberately below Turkish levels to capture market share, although the reduced Turkish premium on large kernels erodes one of the key advantages of alternative origins.

Fundamentals & Policy

The most striking feature this season is the disconnect between the high TMO purchasing price (TRY 250–255/kg, roughly 6.80–7.00 EUR/kg equivalent for in-shell) and the lack of follow-through in free-market prices. Despite the sizeable premium, raw material prices on the open market have been stable to slightly weaker, reflecting the current balance of forces.

On the supply side, many growers need immediate cash to pay pickers and cover harvest costs. They are therefore selling substantial volumes to private buyers even though TMO appointments for September are fully booked and at least 50,000 t of intake is widely expected for that month alone. At the same time, a large share of exporters’ forward sales is already hedged with physical stocks, and carry-over from last season is larger than previously anticipated, reducing procurement pressure and limiting any rush to chase new-crop volumes.

Financial conditions further dampen speculative appetite. With the Turkish central bank holding its policy rate at a very high 37% and inflation expectations still elevated, the cost of financing large long positions is substantial, discouraging inventory-heavy strategies and favouring a conservative, hand-to-mouth approach. The relatively stable TRY/EUR exchange rate in recent weeks has reduced FX-related volatility in export offers but has not been strong enough to tighten the domestic market materially.

A key open variable is the purchasing strategy of the leading multinational confectionery buyer. For now, it has not taken prominent positions in Turkey or the Caucasus. Market participants expect it to begin buying from mid-September, focusing initially on contractually agreed minimum volumes totalling about 45,000 t of in-shell. However, it is not expected to pursue an aggressively dominant spot-buying strategy, and may instead rely more heavily on selected exporters, which would moderate direct upward price pressure.

Weather & Near-Term Harvest Outlook

The Turkish harvest calendar in the Black Sea region is now in full swing and progressing into higher altitudes. Official regional schedules confirm that coastal zones in Ordu and Samsun started picking in mid-August, with mid-altitude zones around 250–500 m entering harvest shortly after, and high-altitude orchards above 500 m in Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon and Samsun now within their official harvest and export windows.

Weather over the past weeks has been mixed: eastern coastal areas have seen enough rainfall to slow drying and raise quality risks, while western regions have benefited from more favourable conditions, enabling faster inflows of dry in-shell nuts into the market. No major, harvest-threatening weather event has been reported in the last few days, so the 700,000 t crop expectation currently looks achievable, with the main uncertainties now focused on final quality parameters and shelling performance rather than volume.

Price Structure & Relative Values

The sharp compression in size differentials is a defining feature of the new season. With large kernels accounting for about 55% of the crop and small kernels (<9 mm) only around 8%, the market is moving away from last year’s extreme shortage of big sizes. The traditional premium for 13–15 mm over 11–13 mm has nearly disappeared, with only about 0.10 EUR/kg expected on average over the season.

By contrast, the discount on 9–11 mm to 11–13 mm, which at times reached as much as 3.00 EUR/kg last year, has already contracted to around 1.50 EUR/kg and is likely to narrow further towards its historical norm of about 0.50 EUR/kg. This re-normalisation should gradually restore a more balanced pricing curve across calibres, with smaller sizes regaining some relative value while premiums for the largest kernels ease compared to last season’s extremes.

Older carry-over stocks struggle to meet the stricter specifications of premium natural kernels, especially in terms of defects and sensory quality. This is likely to support higher prices for clean, high-grade naturals from the new crop, even in a generally well-supplied market, while industrial and roasted segments remain subject to more intense price competition.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• For industrial buyers: The current equilibrium of farmer selling and exporter pre-coverage offers attractive short-term buying opportunities. Cover near-term needs in 11–13 mm and roasted formats now, but retain some flexibility for Q4 as TMO intake and leading-buyer activity could tighten availability of top qualities.
• For confectionery brands: Consider gradually extending coverage for large natural kernels (13–15 mm) before mid-September, when the leading multinational buyer and stronger TMO intake may start to firm premiums on the best lots.
• For growers and origin sellers: The sizeable gap between the TMO floor and free-market prices suggests that selling pressure remains strongest in the immediate post-harvest phase. Where liquidity allows, staggering sales towards late September/early Q4 may capture better differentials for high-quality naturals and selected calibres.
• For traders: The risk/reward favours selective length in top natural grades and small calibres where discounts remain historically wide, funded by more cautious exposure in roasted and paste segments facing continued competition from alternative origins.

3-day directional outlook (EUR, indicative):

• FOB Turkey, natural 11–13 mm kernels: Around 7.0 EUR/kg, bias slightly softer as farmer selling continues and major buyers stay patient.
• FOB Turkey, natural 13–15 mm kernels: Around 7.5 EUR/kg, broadly stable with mild upside risk for premium lots if quality assessments remain favourable.
• DAP Central Europe, roasted 11–13 mm kernels: Around 10.5 EUR/kg, likely to trade sideways after the recent sharp weekly adjustment.