India’s Masoor Deficit Keeps Global Lentil Market Firm

India’s lentil (masoor) market is moving into a more firmly supported phase as domestic production lags demand, old-crop stocks thin out and Canadian export prices move higher in dollar terms and via currency effects. Structural dependence on imports is set to keep Indian buying interest underpinned even if spot prices show only gradual gains. India’s supply gap of around 1.1–1.2 million tonnes between domestic production and consumption is now colliding with weaker arrivals in key producing states, while Canadian offers have risen by about USD 20–25 per tonne. This combination is tightening the effective export floor for global red lentil values. Meanwhile, Canadian FOB indications in EUR look broadly steady on the month, and weather in Saskatchewan has been mostly favourable, suggesting that current firmness is demand-led, not weather-driven.

Prices

In Delhi, domestic bold masoor is quoted around USD 72.52–72.78 per quintal, while imported Canadian lentils are offered above roughly USD 63.29 per quintal. Converting at ~1 USD = 0.92 EUR, this implies about EUR 66.7–67.0/100 kg for local bold masoor and just above EUR 58.2/100 kg for imported Canadian material, leaving a still-significant but narrowing price spread in favour of imports.

Current FOB lentil offers in Canada are broadly stable in recent weeks, with Eston green around EUR 1.20/kg, Laird green near EUR 1.24/kg and red football roughly EUR 2.08/kg, based on late-August USD–EUR levels. Chinese small green lentils are somewhat cheaper, around EUR 0.90–0.94/kg FOB Beijing for conventional and about EUR 0.98/kg for organic, after a modest downward adjustment over the month.

Supply & Demand

India’s masoor balance sheet remains the central driver. Production is estimated around 1.8–1.9 million tonnes against domestic consumption near 3 million tonnes, leaving a structural deficit of roughly 1.1–1.2 million tonnes that must be covered by imports, primarily from Canada and Australia. With old-crop stocks largely depleted, the domestic pipeline is more exposed to import cost movements.

Arrivals in major Madhya Pradesh markets such as Mungawali Ganj, Basoda, Sagar, Bhopal and Binaganj are reported near 50% below last year as many farmers have already marketed their crop. This front-loaded selling pattern tightens later-season availability, helping to keep spot prices supported even without an immediate weather shock. In parallel, recent Indian mandi data show average masoor prices clustering in the upper segment of historical ranges, reflecting this tighter balance.

On the export side, Canadian lentils remain well-positioned, with trade data confirming active shipments of red lentils into key destinations including the United States and South Asia. Despite this, Canada’s FOB price structure has not spiked, suggesting comfortable on-farm stocks and a largely favourable 2026 production outlook so far.

Fundamentals & Weather

The latest assessment points to low domestic masoor stocks in India and firmer Canadian export values, up about USD 20–25 per tonne in recent weeks, compounded by a weaker Indian rupee. This raises the landed cost of imports and effectively lifts the floor for Indian market prices even when local demand is seasonally moderate.

Weather-wise, Canada’s core lentil region in Saskatchewan has seen bouts of heavy rain and localised severe weather around August 30, but the near-term forecast shows a return to mostly sunny, seasonally warm conditions with highs in the low-to-mid 20s °C. Current agronomic assessments continue to rate weather risk to the Canadian lentil crop as low, with no widespread yield threat flagged for the coming week.

Together, this implies that near-term price support is driven more by India’s structural deficit and currency-plus-freight effects than by production fears in Canada. Chinese origin greens, which have edged slightly lower, may cap upside in some destination markets where buyers are flexible on origin and quality, though India’s masoor-specific demand is likely to remain focused on Canadian/Australian red types.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

With India’s production shortfall entrenched and import costs on the rise, the lentil complex looks biased to the upside into the next Indian sowing window, barring a sharp correction in freight or currencies. However, steady FOB levels in Canada and mildly weaker Chinese offers argue against an aggressive near-term spike, pointing instead to a firm, range-bound market.

• Importers in India / South Asia: Consider staggering purchases over the next 4–8 weeks, using any dips from currency or freight corrections to extend coverage, particularly in red lentils.
• Canadian producers: With international demand underpinned, holding a portion of stocks appears justified; however, favourable weather and stable bids suggest using modest rallies to scale-in sales rather than waiting for a weather-driven spike.
• European buyers: For greens, evaluate China versus Canada on a landed EUR basis: slightly cheaper Chinese small greens offer opportunities for blending or substitution where specifications allow.

3-Day Directional View (EUR-based)

• Canadian FOB reds and greens (Ottawa): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR as Indian demand and currency moves offset stable CAD-denominated bids.
• Chinese small green lentils (Beijing FOB): Mildly soft bias after recent easing; further small discounts possible if global freight stabilises.
• India domestic masoor (Delhi): Firm to slightly higher in EUR terms, led by higher import parity and tight local arrivals rather than fresh supply shocks.