Indian Chickpea Prices Edge Higher as Monsoon Stays Uneven

Indian chickpea export prices are inching higher, led by larger calibres, as buyers reassess supply risks under an uneven monsoon and firm domestic demand. FOB New Delhi values for 9–12 mm kabuli types are up around 1–2% week‑on‑week in mid‑August, while some smaller FCA parcels have softened slightly, reflecting mixed liquidity across the chain. India’s chickpea market enters the second half of the monsoon season with retail inflation concerns still elevated and government interventions in pulses ongoing. Stock limits on chana, duty‑free desi chickpea imports and subsidised retail schemes continue to anchor domestic availability, but exportable kabuli supplies remain tightly managed. In northern India, including Delhi and key growing states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, monsoon rains have been erratic, with recent forecasts pointing to below‑normal rainfall in late monsoon despite short wet spells. This combination of policy controls, weather uncertainty and firm consumption is underpinning a mildly bullish tone in export offers.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1 USD = 0.90 EUR.

Indian FCA ex‑Delhi values show a slightly softer bias in smaller calibres, with 8–9 mm lots easing by about 0.01 EUR/kg compared with end‑July, while 10–11 mm and 12 mm sizes are broadly steady to marginally firmer. This divergence suggests exporters are defending margins on export‑grade, larger chickpeas even as domestic pipeline stocks are adjusted lower in line with government stock‑limit rules on chana and kabuli chana.   

Supply & Demand

India remains the key global driver in chickpeas and wider pulse markets, with policy still focused on containing food inflation. New Delhi maintains stock limits on chana (including kabuli) and requires importers not to hold imported stocks for more than 45 days, pressuring traders to keep flows moving and discouraging hoarding.   

At the same time, the government continues to deploy its own chana stocks through subsidised retail channels under the Bharat Dal programme, converting part of its inventories into cheaper pulses for consumers. This improves domestic availability but caps downside for farm‑gate and export prices by absorbing surplus desi chana that could otherwise weigh on the kabuli complex.   

Global demand for Indian kabuli remains firm, as export restrictions still exempt kabuli chickpeas, keeping India competitive in nearby markets. However, tight policy oversight and cautious stock management among traders are limiting aggressive forward sales, particularly while the monsoon outlook remains uncertain for key producing states.   

Weather & Crop Conditions (India)

Recent monsoon commentary points to a likely below‑normal rainfall pattern across India in the later phase of the 2026 southwest monsoon, even though short wet spells continue in parts of the north. Ensemble forecasts discussed by weather observers indicate weaker rains in late monsoon months, with a bias toward improved precipitation only towards the winter and northeast monsoon period.   

For northern India, including chickpea‑relevant states such as Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the monsoon axis has periodically shifted north, bringing scattered storms but also leaving pockets of rainfall deficit earlier in the season. Recent updates highlight intermittent showers over Rajasthan and neighbouring regions, but not the kind of sustained soaking that would fully erase earlier shortfalls.   

In New Delhi specifically, the short‑term outlook for 17–19 August shows typical monsoon conditions: highs around 33–34°C, warm and humid with clouds, scattered showers and a risk of afternoon thunderstorms on most days. This keeps topsoil moisture reasonably supported in nearby areas but does not fundamentally change the broader picture of a less‑than‑ideal, uneven monsoon pattern across northern pulse belts.   

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Policy support but tight controls: Stock limits and duty‑free imports of desi chana improve availability but also push private players to run lean inventories, creating a floor under export offers when demand spikes. 
• Weather risk premium: Uneven monsoon performance in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, with indications of overall monsoon deficiency, supports a modest risk premium in kabuli prices pending clearer information on soil moisture and sowing prospects. 
• Stable to firm domestic consumption: Urban demand in Delhi and other metros for chickpea‑based foods remains robust, with no sign of demand destruction at current retail levels, helping sustain wholesale interest. 

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Exporters (India, kabuli 9–12 mm): Bias remains mildly bullish. Consider maintaining offer levels or a small premium on larger calibres, especially for September shipments, while avoiding over‑selling beyond available physicals given policy and weather risk.
• Importers/Buyers: For nearby coverage, use any intraday or weather‑driven dips to secure volumes, particularly in 9–11 mm grades. Delay in hopes of a sharp correction looks risky unless the monsoon improves materially in key pulse belts.
• Domestic traders (IN): Work with lighter inventories in smaller calibres where FCA prices are softening slightly, but retain some length in higher‑value kabuli sizes aligned with government stock‑limit thresholds.

3‑Day Price Indication (IN, New Delhi)

• FOB kabuli 9–12 mm: Sideways to slightly firmer. Price band expected around current 0.77–0.87 EUR/kg, with a potential uptick of up to 0.01 EUR/kg if buyers step in on weather headlines.
• FOB kabuli 8 mm: Largely stable near 0.77 EUR/kg; modest downside limited by policy and strong regional demand.
• FCA ex‑Delhi (all sizes): Mixed; small calibres may see minor further softness, while larger grades likely hold steady in the short term.