Indian Sesame Under Pressure as China Shifts to Cheaper Origins

India’s sesame sector is in a demand‑soft patch: exports fell sharply in H1 2026, prices eased, and China is leaning harder on rival origins, keeping a firm lid on upside. The global sesame market is currently shaped by weaker import appetite and aggressive competition from Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil. India’s shipments declined both in volume and value in the first half of 2026, while domestic prices softened as exporters struggled to remain competitive. At the same time, August spot indications in India and North Africa point to a gently drifting market rather than a collapse, suggesting buyers are covered short term and in no rush to chase higher prices. Near‑term direction hinges on new‑crop developments in Asia and Africa and any pickup in Chinese and Middle Eastern demand.

Prices

India’s sesame export realisation averaged about EUR 1,48–1,50 per kg in January–June 2026, down roughly 7% year on year, reflecting both weaker demand and stronger competition on price. June’s average export price, around EUR 1,55 per kg, stood modestly above the six‑month mean, pointing to a higher share of premium or value‑added product in that month’s shipments. Domestically, export demand has been subdued, contributing to a decline of roughly EUR 0,22–0,33 per 100 kg in Indian sesame prices.

Current physical indications confirm a softening but orderly market. Hulled sesame FOB New Delhi is broadly in the EUR 1,34–1,43 per kg range for standard grades, with top EU‑grade material around EUR 1,42–1,48 per kg. Natural white sesame from India trades near EUR 1,15–1,20 per kg FCA, while natural origins from Egypt and Chad to Europe cluster between roughly EUR 1,30 and 1,85 per kg depending on quality and colour.

Supply & Demand

India exported 118,810 tonnes of sesame in January–June 2026, an 18% drop from 144,545 tonnes a year earlier. Export value fell even more sharply, by 23% to about EUR 175 million equivalent, underscoring the dual pressure from lower volumes and softer prices. The first half’s average export price slipped about 7% to roughly EUR 1,48–1,50 per kg, signalling that buyers resisted higher offers and shifted to cheaper origins where possible.

China, the world’s largest sesame buyer, has been drawing increasingly on Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil, where supplies into the mid‑2026 period were both competitive and more readily available. Brazil’s rapid expansion into the Chinese market and improving new‑crop availability from Pakistan have intensified head‑to‑head competition with Indian material. In response, Indian buyers have limited forward coverage and focused on nearby needs, awaiting clearer signals on overseas demand and new‑crop size and quality in Asia and Africa.

Fundamentals & Quality Mix

The smaller contraction in June exports compared with the first‑half aggregate points to some stabilisation in demand for higher‑value product streams. India shipped 26,074 tonnes in June 2026, only 8% below June 2025, while export earnings dipped just 2%. The month’s average export price of around EUR 1,55 per kg exceeded the six‑month mean, implying that a greater share of shipments comprised hulled, processed or otherwise premium sesame.

Nevertheless, India faces a structural challenge in aligning domestic prices and quality consistency with customer expectations in China, the Middle East and Western markets. To regain share against Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil, competitive farm‑gate and ex‑warehouse pricing must be matched with reliable quality specifications and timely execution. Any quality slippage risks further substitution by rival origins that have invested in cleaning, hulling and food‑safety compliance for major importing regions.

Short‑Term Outlook & Weather

Looking ahead to late August and early September 2026, the sesame market is likely to remain range‑bound to slightly soft as long as Chinese and Middle Eastern buying stays cautious. The modest improvement in June’s price realisation suggests that downside may be limited for premium grades, but bulk natural and mid‑range qualities remain exposed to competitive offers from Pakistan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Domestic Indian prices have already adjusted lower, and further declines from current levels will depend on new‑crop yield estimates and quality reports.

Weather in key producing regions in South Asia and East Africa during late August typically becomes critical for yield determination. Well‑distributed rains would reinforce the current comfortable supply perception, while any significant dryness or flooding in major belts could quickly tighten the outlook and trigger a rebound in nearby prices. For now, with no major disruption reported, buyers retain the upper hand and can continue to purchase hand‑to‑mouth while monitoring crop and freight developments.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Importers / Roasters: Use current soft prices to secure partial cover for Q4 2026, especially for premium hulled and EU‑grade material, while keeping some flexibility in case of weather‑ or freight‑driven spikes.
• Exporters in India: Focus on competitive pricing for natural grades and on value‑added, high‑spec lots where June data hint at relatively firmer realisations; avoid over‑committing forward until clearer signals emerge from Chinese demand.
• Industrial buyers in Europe & MENA: Consider a diversified origin portfolio, balancing competitively priced Pakistan/Brazil/Ethiopia offers with Indian suppliers that can guarantee consistent quality and timely shipment.

3‑Day Price Indication

• India – New Delhi (FOB): Sesame likely to trade sideways to modestly softer around EUR 1,30–1,45/kg for mainstream hulled and EUR 1,10–1,20/kg for natural, given weak export enquiry.
• Egypt – Cairo (FOB): Natural sesame expected to hold in a EUR 1,30–1,35/kg band as regional buyers remain price‑sensitive but covered for nearby needs.
• Germany – Berlin (FCA, Chad origin hulled): Market seen stable in a narrow EUR 1,45–1,50/kg range, tracking global sesame softness but supported by logistics and quality premiums into the EU.