Jordan’s New Barley Tender Signals Firm Import Demand into 2026/27

Jordan’s fresh tender for up to 120,000 t of feed barley for September–October 2026 adds a clear demand signal to a market already focused on Black Sea export availability and geopolitical risks. With the previous tender ending without a purchase, the new call highlights Jordan’s determination to secure feed supplies and may help put a floor under Black Sea-origin barley values. Jordan’s state buyer is seeking 50–60 kt consignments, with offers due on 17 June and shipment windows spread across September–October 2026. In parallel, Amman is tendering for 120,000 t of milling wheat, showing a broader push to build grain reserves for the new season. Against this backdrop, Black Sea and EU exporters face a mix of softer inland Ukrainian prices, weather volatility and ongoing war-related logistics risk, all of which will shape offer levels into the Jordan tender.

Prices & Tender Signals

The new Jordan tender follows an earlier 120,000 t feed barley tender that attracted interest but resulted in no purchase, suggesting either price resistance or non‑price terms issues. The relaunch, with longer shipment windows into September–October 2026, may draw more competitive origin offers while locking in Jordan’s forward coverage for the livestock sector.

In Ukraine, indicative feed barley offers remain low in euro terms. Recent domestic listings around USD 180/t FOB/port for barley on 9 June translate to roughly EUR 167–170/t, depending on FX. This aligns with the platform’s inland FCA offers from Ukraine, where feed‑grade barley seeds are quoted near EUR 210–220/t FCA for Odesa and Kyiv, after adjusting from EUR/kg to EUR/t, and cattle‑feed barley around EUR 190/t FOB Odesa. The modest decline since mid‑May points to comfortable near‑term supply, even as forward demand from importers like Jordan emerges.

Supply, Demand & Geopolitics

Jordan’s simultaneous tenders for feed barley and milling wheat underline its ongoing strategy of building strategic grain reserves and ensuring feed security into the 2026/27 season. The livestock sector remains heavily dependent on imported feed barley, so failure to secure volumes in the previous tender likely increased urgency. The larger September–October shipment window should give sellers more flexibility in vessel planning and origin selection.

On the supply side, Black Sea exporters – particularly Ukraine and Russia – remain central to Jordan’s sourcing calculus. Ukraine’s port barley values have corrected sharply in recent days, while war‑related risks in the wider Black Sea persist, including drone and missile activity near key ports and energy infrastructure. This combination of ample regional supply but elevated logistical and geopolitical risk supports a scenario where FOB offers to Jordan remain competitive in price but retain a risk premium in freight and basis.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the barley balance into 2026/27 looks reasonably comfortable, with Black Sea and EU exporters expected to have exportable surpluses, while traditional importers in MENA and Asia sustain solid feed demand. Forward‑looking studies highlight that if Australian output underperforms, Ukrainian and wider Black Sea barley could gain share in key Middle Eastern and Asian markets, making tenders like Jordan’s strategically important for regional exporters.

Weather across key origin regions bears watching. June outlooks for Europe signal a generally warmer‑than‑normal pattern, with the Black Sea fringe (including Ukraine and Romania) facing a mixed regime of warmth, thunderstorms and locally intense rainfall. In the very short term, Ukraine faces thunderstorms, hail and strong wind gusts around 12 June, conditions that may briefly disrupt late fieldwork and logistics but are unlikely to materially change the new‑crop barley outlook.

Market & Trading Outlook

• Price floor from demand: Jordan’s renewed tender for 120,000 t of feed barley for September–October 2026 should help underpin Black Sea export values after recent softness in inland Ukrainian prices.
• Origin competition: Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia) and EU suppliers are likely to compete aggressively on FOB price; any weather‑driven downgrade in EU or Australian crops later this season would quickly tighten the barley balance and support higher offer levels.
• Risk premium: Geopolitical and logistical risks in and around the Black Sea suggest that attractive flat prices may still embed a premium on freight, insurance and timing; buyers should weigh total landed cost rather than FOB alone.

For importers, the tender window offers an opportunity to secure forward coverage at still‑moderate euro‑denominated prices, but with upside risk if weather or geopolitics deteriorate. For sellers, current indications argue for a balanced approach: locking in volumes into Jordan’s tender while retaining some exposure to potential price appreciation later in the 2026/27 campaign.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR)

• Black Sea FOB barley: Mildly firmer bias as traders position for Jordan’s 17 June deadline and assess geopolitical risk in regional logistics.
• Ukraine inland FCA (Odesa, Kyiv): Largely stable to slightly higher after the recent correction, with weather‑related logistics noise but no major fundamental shift.
• EU feed barley (export parity): Sideways to marginally stronger, tracking wheat and watching MENA tender activity for directional cues.