Oat Market Tracks Wheat Rally Amid Stable EU Cash Prices
CBOT oat futures edge higher on Black Sea risk while German and Ukrainian feed oat prices remain stable. Outlook, fundamentals and trading ideas in EUR.
Prices
On 25 August 2026, the CBOT September 2026 oat future last traded at 327.00 US‑ct/bu, up 1.47% on the day, with December 2026 at 346.50 US‑ct/bu (+1.24%). Further out, March–July 2027 positions were slightly weaker or steady around 350–360 US‑ct/bu, on very thin volume, indicating that the current strength is concentrated at the front end rather than in the longer-term curve.
Converted to EUR, the nearby CBOT oat benchmark is trading around 1.20 EUR/bu, assuming roughly 1 EUR = 1.00 USD and 1 bu = 36.74 kg, implying about 32.7 EUR/t at the futures level. In contrast, physical feed oats in Germany (EXW Drentwede) have been quoted consistently at 0.195 EUR/kg (195 EUR/t) since 21 August, while Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa stand at 0.190 EUR/kg (190 EUR/t). Despite the recent front‑month futures uptick, these cash levels show no meaningful change over the past week.
Supply & Demand
The broader grain complex is dominated by wheat headlines: Ukraine’s export capacity remains constrained by Russian attacks in the Black Sea, even though Kyiv reports that three to four ships per day are still cycling through the Greater Odesa area. Hopes for diplomatic de‑escalation have tempered panic, but there is still an effort to restrict flows, which has supported nearby wheat prices and indirectly underpinned oats via feed substitution effects.
In the US, 2026/27 wheat exports are sharply behind last year, with weekly shipments for the week to 20 August down 17% from the prior week and 59% below the same week last year. Cumulative exports are 26% under the previous season. This weak export performance, combined with the smallest US wheat harvest in decades and high prices, is pushing some feed users to look at alternatives such as oats and other small grains, but actual switching is gradual given logistical and formulation constraints.
Fundamentals & Weather
On the wheat side, US summer harvest progress reached 62% by Sunday, 10 percentage points above the normal pace, while 51% of remaining crops are still rated good to excellent. This relatively solid crop condition, even amid logistical and geopolitical tension, limits extreme upside in the cereal complex and keeps oat fundamentals from tightening too quickly through spillover demand.
For oats specifically, current European offers suggest adequate availability in both Germany and Ukraine, with no sign yet of significant weather‑related supply stress in key Northern European or Black Sea oat regions. Until there is a clearer weather‑driven downgrade or a sharper escalation of Black Sea disruption, the fundamental balance for oats looks broadly comfortable, allowing physical prices to decouple somewhat from short‑term futures volatility.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Futures: With front‑month CBOT oats following the wheat rally but on very low volume, further gains look possible in the near term if Black Sea tensions persist, yet liquidity risk and limited fundamental tightness argue for cautious positioning.
- Physical buyers: European feed users can still secure oats around 190–195 EUR/t; staggered coverage for Q4 2026 is advisable, as upside risk stems mainly from external wheat and freight shocks rather than oat‑specific shortages.
- Producers: Given the stability of cash bids versus more volatile futures, using any further futures spikes to layer in modest hedges or basis sales could lock in attractive margins without over‑committing.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- CBOT oat futures (front month, EUR‑equivalent): Slightly firmer to sideways, tracking wheat with high intraday volatility.
- Germany feed oat EXW: Sideways around 195 EUR/t; no immediate catalyst for a sharp move in the next three days.
- Ukraine feed oat FCA Odesa: Sideways near 190 EUR/t, but headline risk on Black Sea logistics remains an upside tail risk.