Pakistan’s Mango Exports Squeezed as Markets Shrink and Risks Concentrate

Pakistan’s mango export sector has moved from growth to crisis within two seasons, with volumes down 66% from 2024 and market access sharply reduced. The trade is now heavily concentrated in a few regional buyers, while growers face weaker returns and rising structural constraints across logistics, certification and cold chain. Pakistan’s fresh mango exports have fallen from a four‑year peak of 132,587 tonnes in 2024 to just 44,882 tonnes in 2026, while the number of destination countries has shrunk from 77 to 34. Iran, the UAE and Oman now absorb more than four‑fifths of shipments, leaving the sector exposed to localised shocks in a narrow set of markets. At the same time, farm‑gate prices are under pressure as more fruit is forced onto the domestic market or into processing channels. Industry stakeholders are calling for urgent investment in cold chain, certification and trade diplomacy to stabilise exports and rebuild market access.

Prices

Fresh export prices are under downward pressure from Pakistan’s side as exporters struggle to place volumes, but limited access to high‑value markets caps upside on the buyer side. The sharp reduction of nearly 88,000 tonnes in exports since 2024 has pushed more fruit onto Pakistan’s domestic and processing markets, weakening farm‑gate returns for export‑grade mangoes.

In contrast, dried mango quotations in Europe and Asia remain relatively firm. Recent offers show Vietnamese dried mango slices and chunks around EUR 5.85–5.88/kg FOB Hanoi and Thai dried mango around EUR 4.68/kg FCA Netherlands, all slightly higher than late July levels, indicating modest strength in processed mango demand despite the fresh export downturn.

Supply & Demand

Pakistan’s exportable supply has contracted sharply in market terms, even if orchards remain productive. Official figures show exports sliding from 132,587 tonnes in 2024 to 116,011 tonnes in 2025 and 44,882 tonnes so far in 2026, a two‑year drop of 66%. At the same time, reported destination markets have fallen from 77 to 34, with 43 countries no longer taking Pakistani mangoes.

Demand has become highly concentrated. Iran is now the largest buyer with around 20,336 tonnes, followed by the UAE with 10,068 tonnes and Oman with 6,359 tonnes. The three markets together absorb more than four‑fifths of Pakistan’s exports this season, while the UK takes 3,439 tonnes and Norway 518 tonnes. Smaller but strategically important flows continue to the US, Canada, Sweden, Ireland and Malaysia, but volumes there remain marginal relative to the regional core.

The most dramatic loss is Afghanistan, which imported 23,403 tonnes in 2025 but has recorded no official imports in 2026. Saudi Arabia’s purchases have also fallen about 70% year on year to roughly 710 tonnes. With less fruit leaving the country, Pakistan’s domestic market and processors must absorb significantly higher volumes, depressing local prices and eroding grower margins compared with the export‑driven peaks of recent years.

Fundamentals & Constraints

Industry participants attribute the export slump primarily to structural bottlenecks rather than a collapse in global mango demand. Pakistan lacks sufficient modern cold‑chain capacity, including pre‑cooling, refrigerated storage and temperature‑controlled transport, which are essential to preserve fruit quality and shelf life on longer export routes. These gaps are especially damaging for distant high‑value markets in Europe, North America and East Asia.

Certification and compliance represent a second major weakness. Exporters report difficulties meeting increasingly stringent sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, as well as traceability and treatment protocols demanded by premium markets. Where cold‑chain and certification are inconsistent, importers tend to favour competing origins with more reliable post‑harvest systems, limiting Pakistan’s access even when exportable fruit is available.

Rising logistics and operating costs further undermine competitiveness. Disruptions in regional trade routes, higher freight rates and geopolitical frictions in neighbouring countries have all increased the cost and complexity of shipping Pakistani mangoes. Without more efficient infrastructure and better integration into international quality and certification frameworks, Pakistan risks being locked into lower‑margin regional channels while losing ground in markets that reward quality and reliability.

Weather & Crop Context

While the current crisis is driven mainly by logistics and market access, weather has also been a background factor. Earlier in the season, official agencies reported mango availability 30–35% below normal due to climate‑related temperature fluctuations that damaged fruit setting and caused premature fruit drop.

This tighter physical availability would typically support prices, but Pakistan’s export bottlenecks and market losses have offset any bullish impact. With Afghanistan and parts of the Gulf effectively constrained, even a smaller crop is struggling to find remunerative export outlets, underscoring that infrastructure and certification now matter more for price formation than pure yield swings.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

Looking ahead, Pakistan’s mango sector faces a strategic crossroads. Without rapid improvements in cold chain, certification and trade diplomacy, exports are likely to remain capped and highly concentrated in Iran, the UAE and Oman, keeping commercial risk elevated. A successful policy and investment push could gradually restore access to lost destinations, diversify the customer base and lift farm‑gate returns.

• Importers in the Middle East and Iran region: Expect continued strong bargaining power vis‑à‑vis Pakistani suppliers due to their heavy reliance on your markets. However, consider supply‑security clauses and alternative origins to mitigate counterparty and logistics risk.
• European and North American buyers: Short‑term volumes from Pakistan are likely to remain limited and uneven. Where quality and certification standards are met, selective long‑term contracts could lock in competitive prices, but buyers should monitor cold‑chain upgrades closely.
• Processors and dried‑mango manufacturers: Weak fresh export channels increase the pool of mangoes available for drying and processing in and around Pakistan, potentially supporting margins if input prices remain soft while finished dried‑mango prices in EUR markets stay firm.
• Pakistani growers and exporters: Priority should be given to investment in packhouses, pre‑cooling, refrigerated logistics and internationally recognised certification schemes, alongside targeted market‑development efforts in high‑value but currently under‑served destinations.

3‑Day Directional Outlook (EUR‑based)

• Fresh export market (Pakistan FOB, converted to EUR): Sideways to slightly softer, with sellers competing aggressively for limited certified slots on key routes.
• Dried mango Vietnam FOB (EUR): Mildly firm tone around EUR 5.8–5.9/kg as buyers accept small price increases amid resilient demand.
• Dried mango Thailand FCA NL (EUR): Stable to slightly firmer near EUR 4.7/kg, supported by steady European snack and ingredient demand.