Pistachios Head for a Tighter 2026‑27 Season as Big Three Origins Shrink

Global pistachio supply is set to tighten markedly in 2026‑27 as crops in the United States, Turkey and Iran all point lower, raising the risk of reduced export availability and a firmer price floor. Production losses in Turkey and Iran, combined with a sharp on‑year decline in the US crop despite sizeable carryover, suggest international buyers will face stronger competition for high‑quality pistachios and less flexibility in origin choice than last season.

Prices

Spot and offer indications already reflect a firm undertone against this tightening outlook. Recent European FOB offers show organic green pistachio kernels from Spain around EUR 41.8/kg, Italian organic kernels near EUR 68.9–68.95/kg, and organic in‑shell US product near EUR 22.1/kg, all broadly steady to slightly higher over August, signalling resilient demand into the new marketing year.

In the US, wholesale terminal‑market prices for California pistachios in 25 lb sacks were recently reported around USD 143.75–154.00 per package, indicating a steady but elevated range for physical product as buyers secure forward coverage ahead of a smaller 2026‑27 crop.

Supply & Demand

Turkey faces the sharpest setback among the main origins. Adverse weather, including frost and unfavourable seasonal conditions in key producing areas, has severely curtailed yield potential. Current trade estimates put the 2026‑27 crop near 200,000 tonnes versus roughly 400,000 tonnes last year, implying a 50% year‑on‑year drop and, with low carry‑in stocks, a significant squeeze on exportable surplus.

In the United States, production is projected at about 600,000 tonnes in 2026‑27, down roughly 46% from last season. While sizeable carryover inventories mean total US availability is expected to contract by a smaller 33%, the country’s role as a leading exporter means the reduction will still be felt strongly in international trade flows, particularly for high‑grade California material.

Iran is also expected to post materially lower output, with indications of around a 50% drop in production. Electricity shortages are constraining irrigation in major pistachio regions, stressing orchards and limiting yield potential. Given Iran’s central role in supplying markets across Asia and the Middle East, such a contraction would materially reduce origin diversification options for buyers in those regions.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals point to a synchronised tightening. Turkey’s small crop combined with limited residual stocks leaves little buffer, while Iran’s irrigation‑driven yield losses add structural risk on top of any weather volatility during the remainder of the growing season. Together with a sharply lower US harvest, the three origins are likely to deliver significantly reduced exportable volume versus the previous year.

California remains the linchpin for global supply and quality differentiation. While some of the most pessimistic early crop assessments may prove too negative, recent heat and earlier season weather issues have already curtailed potential, and any further setbacks during harvest would quickly translate into reduced availability for export‑oriented grades.

In Iran’s Kerman province, a key pistachio area, late‑August weather is hot and dry, with forecast daytime highs around 32–36°C and cool nights, broadly seasonal for this time of year, supporting ongoing maturation but offering limited relief for orchards already stressed by water and power constraints.

Market Outlook & Trading Guidance

With simultaneous production declines in the United States, Turkey and Iran, the 2026‑27 pistachio season is shaping up as structurally tighter than the previous year. Even after accounting for US carryover, the projected 33% drop in total US availability, a near‑50% fall in Turkey’s crop and a similar scale of reduction in Iran suggest reduced flexibility for origin switching and a more competitive environment for buyers.

Global pistachio prices are therefore likely to maintain a firm undertone into and through the 2026‑27 marketing year, with upside risk if final harvest results in California or Turkey disappoint current expectations or if Iranian supply is further constrained by infrastructure or policy issues. Demand rationing through higher prices, deferred coverage and grade or origin substitution will be critical in balancing the market.

Trading outlook

• Roasters and packers: Consider extending coverage on core grades and preferred origins ahead of Northern Hemisphere harvest results, especially from California and Turkey, to hedge against further upside if production underperforms.
• Industrial users and confectionery: Explore greater flexibility on origin and grade (e.g. shifting between US and EU Mediterranean supply, or between kernel sizes) to manage costs in a tighter market.
• Importers and distributors: Monitor US inventory drawdown and Turkey’s actual export pace closely; slow farmer selling or delayed export programs could create short‑term tightness and volatility in spot premiums.

3‑day directional price view (EUR)

• Europe (FOB Mediterranean kernels): Bias slightly higher; limited nearby offers and bullish new‑crop fundamentals support mild price appreciation.
• US export (in‑shell, CIF EU equivalent): Steady to firm; current wholesale levels suggest sellers will resist discounts ahead of clearer harvest data.
• Middle East & Asia (Iran/Turkey origin): Firm; expectations of sharply reduced exportable volumes underpin offers, with little near‑term downside.