Stable Cinnamon FOB Prices as Monsoon Rains Hit India and Heat Builds in Vietnam
FOB cinnamon prices from India and Vietnam are flat in mid-June 2026. See EUR price levels, monsoon and heat impacts, and a 3‑day price outlook for IN & VN.
Prices & Spreads (FOB, converted to EUR)
Latest offers (FOB, 13 June 2026) show a broadly unchanged market compared with the previous week, with modest upward moves over the past month now plateauing. Vietnam cassia remains structurally cheaper than Indian origin and Ceylon types, maintaining a clear quality and origin spread.
(USD–EUR conversions assume ~0.92; values are indicative, rounded.) For reference, recent global data place average export prices around US$2.99/kg for Vietnamese cinnamon and about US$7.8/kg for Indian exports, confirming the wide origin premium.
Supply, Demand & Trade Flows
Vietnam remains the world’s leading cassia exporter, with Vietnam Pepper Association data showing strong shipment volumes and lower average export prices year-on-year, indicating abundant supply and competitive offers. India, the top buyer of Vietnamese cinnamon, continues to import sizeable volumes even while also exporting higher-value Ceylon and organic cassia products, supporting active two-way trade.
On the demand side, there are no fresh policy shocks or sanitary issues reported in the past three days that would alter near-term buying. Energy costs have risen in India following an LPG price increase from 7 June, marginally tightening cost structures for small processors but not yet large enough to trigger immediate price adjustments in export offers.
Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN)
India (Kerala & South peninsular cinnamon areas)
The southwest monsoon has officially set in over Kerala as of 4 June and is active, with heavy to very heavy rainfall over coastal districts and a rainfall surplus near 29% in early June. For cinnamon and mixed-spice agroforestry systems, this improves soil moisture and supports new flush, but also increases short-term risks of field access disruption and localized flooding in low-lying plots.
Seasonal outlooks still call for below-normal all-India monsoon rainfall (near 90% of long-period average) under an emerging El Niño pattern, implying that the current wet start in Kerala may not persist through August–September. For now, however, there are no confirmed reports of damage to cinnamon stands, so the impact on supply is neutral to slightly positive.
Vietnam (Central provinces such as Quảng Ngãi)
Central Vietnam is entering a fresh heatwave from 13 June, with daytime temperatures widely in the 35–37°C range and locally above 38°C, including eastern areas from Quảng Ngãi southwards. Local 7‑day forecasts for Quảng Ngãi confirm hot conditions with scattered showers but no extreme rainfall.
For cassia trees on sloping terrain, short heatwaves raise evapotranspiration and can stress younger plantings if soil moisture is already low, but a single warm spell is unlikely to affect 2026 output. Current weather is therefore not yet a bullish driver but is worth monitoring if heat persists or rainfall deficits develop later in the season.
Market Drivers & Risks
- Abundant Vietnam supply: High export volumes at subdued average prices continue to anchor global cassia benchmarks, capping upside for Indian cassia despite its organic and quality premium.
- Indian cost pressures: Higher domestic LPG prices and generally firm energy benchmarks add mild upward pressure on processing and transport costs, but so far processors appear to be absorbing this rather than lifting offers.
- Weather uncertainty: A strong start to the monsoon in Kerala contrasts with a seasonal forecast for below-normal Indian rainfall under El Niño conditions, keeping medium-term crop risk slightly elevated even though near-term conditions are favourable.
- Macro & FX: No major currency or freight shocks have been reported in the last few days that would materially change FOB indications in INR or VND terms; EUR-equivalent quotes remain primarily driven by underlying USD pricing and stable spreads.
3‑Day Trading & Price Outlook (IN, VN)
Trading guidance (next 3–7 days)
- Buyers of Vietnam cassia (EU, India, US): Near-term prices are stable with comfortable supply; this is a suitable window for routine coverage. Consider staggering purchases rather than aggressively front-loading, as no immediate bullish catalyst is visible.
- Buyers of Indian organic/Ceylon cinnamon: Premium Indian grades show steady offers and supportive moisture conditions. Short-term upside risk is limited; buyers with coverage through Q3 can wait, while those with nearby needs may lock in part of their volume at current levels.
- Producers & exporters (IN, VN): Maintain offer discipline; current levels are competitive versus global benchmarks but do not justify discounting. Monitor El Niño-related monsoon developments and any protracted heat in central Vietnam as potential triggers for firmer Q4 pricing.
3‑day regional price indication (directional)
- India – New Delhi FOB (cassia & Ceylon, organic): Prices expected to remain stable over the next three days. Weather in Kerala is wet but supportive; no logistics disruptions are reported that would force near-term price adjustments.
- Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (cassia split/broken/cigarette): Prices expected to remain stable to slightly soft, as strong export supply and hot, dry short-term weather do not yet constrain availability.
Overall, cinnamon markets from both India and Vietnam should trade sideways in the very short term, with weather- and El Niño‑related risks more relevant for pricing in the coming months than over the next few days.