Turkey’s New Hazelnut Floor Price Sets Higher Domestic Anchor but Eases Pressure on Global Dollar Market

Turkey’s decision to lift its 2026/27 hazelnut floor price in lira terms while only modestly increasing the effective dollar price is resetting cost expectations for growers but is unlikely to trigger a renewed global price spike. With export demand still recovering from last season’s historic rally, the new floor mainly acts as a domestic support rather than a bullish shock for international buyers. Traders in Türkiye and key consuming regions are now recalibrating their procurement strategies around a larger 2026/27 crop and a more moderate—but still elevated—USD price environment for Turkish hazelnuts.

Introduction

On 6 August, Turkey’s Grain Board (TMO) set its 2026/27 hazelnut purchasing floor at TRY 250/kg, up from TRY 195/kg in 2025/26, an increase of about 28% in local currency terms. Due to lira depreciation, the rise translates to roughly a 9% year-on-year increase in US dollar terms, putting the new floor around US$5.25/kg on a kernel-equivalent basis.

The announcement comes as Turkey, which supplies roughly 60–70% of global hazelnut output and around three-quarters of world exports, prepares for a rebound in production after last season’s smaller crop. Previous official and industry assessments for recent seasons show Turkish production in the 675,000–785,000 ton range, underlining the country’s structural dominance in the global hazelnut trade.

Immediate Market Impact

The new TMO floor reduces downside risk for Turkish growers but has so far had a muted effect on international prices, as much of the adjustment was already anticipated. FOB offers for Turkish hazelnuts had been easing in recent weeks, reflecting expectations of a larger 2026/27 crop and weaker demand following last season’s price spike.

With the current Expana benchmark for 11/13 Turkish hazelnut kernels near US$8.50/kg—down sharply from the near US$18/kg peak in late September 2025 but still above the long-run US$5.50–7.80/kg range—there remains a substantial premium versus historical norms. This premium, combined with the modest increase in the dollar-equivalent floor, encourages continued substitution towards competing origins, notably Georgia and emerging Central Asian suppliers, and limits the scope for renewed upside in spot prices this harvest.

Supply Chain Disruptions

While the floor announcement itself does not create physical logistics bottlenecks, it interacts with existing strains in Türkiye’s export chain. Exporters along the Black Sea coast have already experienced a 37% drop in kernel export volumes over the first 11 months of the 2025/26 season, as high prices and currency volatility discouraged traditional buyers.

This contraction has led to lower utilization rates at cracking and processing facilities and a shift towards shorter-term, smaller-volume contracts. With the 2026/27 crop projected back toward normal levels—700,000–810,000 tons in-shell—ports such as Ordu, Samsun and Trabzon could see higher throughput than last season, but forward bookings remain more cautious than in past years when long-season contracts were typical.

In Türkiye (TR region), processors and exporters may face tighter working capital and inventory-management pressures. TMO’s role as buyer of last resort should mitigate farm-gate selling pressure at harvest, but it may also result in more product flowing into state stocks if export demand fails to accelerate in line with the larger crop.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Hazelnut kernels (conventional, TR origin) – Directly impacted by the higher lira floor, which sets a cost baseline but is partly offset in USD terms by currency depreciation and softer export demand.
• Organic hazelnut kernels (TR origin) – Premium organic products from İzmir FOB are likely to see firmer replacement costs, though global buyers may resist further price hikes after the 2025 surge.
• Hazelnut kernels (GE and other origins) – Competing suppliers in Georgia and Central Asia stand to retain or gain market share as their prices look comparatively attractive against still-elevated Turkish levels.
• Hazelnut ingredients (roasted, diced, meal) – Ingredient-grade hazelnut products used in confectionery and bakery will track kernel replacement costs; many industrial users are already blending with alternative nuts where feasible.
• Confectionery and chocolate spreads – Large buyers in Europe rely heavily on Turkish hazelnuts; input cost stabilization at a high level may limit the scope for downstream price cuts but reduces the risk of another extreme spike.

Regional Trade Implications

For Türkiye, the new floor is primarily a domestic income-support tool, but it also signals that Ankara is aiming to balance grower profitability with export competitiveness. After last season’s rally and subsequent demand destruction, key buyers in the EU have diversified towards alternative origins, a trend likely to persist as long as Turkish prices remain at a premium to historical norms.

Within the TR region, exporters with strong relationships in Europe may leverage the more moderate dollar increase to recover some lost volume, provided quality and logistics remain reliable. However, if EU buyers continue to prioritize risk diversification and shorter contracts, a portion of demand that swung to Georgia and other Black Sea or Central Asian origins may not fully return, locking in a more fragmented global supply base.

Countries importing large volumes of hazelnuts for processing—particularly in Western Europe—are likely to maintain a portfolio approach to origin selection, using Turkish offers as a reference while opportunistically sourcing from alternative suppliers when spreads widen. This dynamic caps Turkey’s ability to pass through higher domestic costs to international buyers beyond a certain point.

Market Outlook

In the near term, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with the TMO floor providing psychological support but ample expected crop availability and fragile demand preventing a sustained rally. Volatility may pick up around the start of main harvest deliveries as traders test whether TMO can absorb potential spot oversupply without forcing private exporters to discount more aggressively.

Key indicators for traders will include realized 2026/27 production versus current 700,000–810,000 ton expectations, the pace of kernel export sales in the first half of the marketing year, and any additional policy moves by TMO or other state entities to manage stocks. Currency developments will also be critical: further lira depreciation could erode the real value of the floor for growers while softening the effective USD cost for foreign buyers.

CMB Market Insight

The 2026/27 hazelnut floor price decision confirms that Turkey is prioritizing grower support without deliberately engineering another sharp jump in the global dollar price. For market participants in Türkiye and abroad, this reduces tail-risk of an immediate repeat of the 2025 price spike but does not yet herald a return to the low, stable prices seen in the late 2010s.

Commodity traders, importers and food manufacturers should treat the new floor as a medium-term anchor: sufficient to sustain Turkish production and exports, but not high enough in USD terms to reverse the demand destruction and origin diversification of recent seasons. Strategic procurement will likely continue to emphasize flexible, multi-origin sourcing and shorter contract tenors while monitoring how quickly international demand responds to a more balanced but still relatively expensive Turkish hazelnut market.