Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as New Season Supply Builds
Turkish dried apricot prices stay firm with a balanced 2026 crop and ideal Malatya weather. FOB Malatya and EU FCA levels seen stable to slightly firmer this week.
Prices
Indicative Malatya export references show sulphured dried apricots around EUR 8.0/kg FOB and natural unsulphured around EUR 8.2/kg FOB, both slightly higher month-on-month and broadly aligned with private offers for standard No. 1–4 grades. Domestic board prices in TRY/kg continue to signal a firm underlying market, even as on-the-ground deals may close with small discounts for volume parcels.
In Europe, ex‑warehouse offers for Turkish origin in the Netherlands for mid sizes (No. 4–6) are clustered around EUR 6.6–6.8/kg FCA, while size No. 1 hovers near EUR 7.1/kg, showing a flat curve versus late August. Polish FCA offers for industrial-grade cubes are slightly weaker week-on-week, reflecting competitive pressure from alternative dried fruit ingredients but not pointing to a broad market correction.
Supply & Demand
The 2026 Turkish dried apricot crop is significantly better than the frost‑hit 2025 season. New‑crop assessments point to production around 75,000–80,000 tonnes, with only limited quality downgrades despite spring weather concerns. Industry reports highlight that the official crop estimate has already been published and confirms adequate volume, easing fears of structural shortage and keeping sellers disciplined rather than aggressive.
At the same time, there is very little carryover after last year’s tight balance sheets, meaning the market cannot tolerate large demand surges without price reaction. Export demand from key destinations in the EU and Middle East remains solid, supported by Türkiye’s continuing role as a leading global exporter of apricots and dried products. Buyers, however, are cautious with forward coverage given high financing costs and are testing seller resolve with staggered purchases rather than large seasonal blocks.
Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)
The short-term weather outlook for Malatya from 8–10 September is benign: clear skies and plenty of sunshine with daytime highs rising from about 27°C to 31°C and cool nights around 12–14°C. These conditions are ideal for final field-drying and warehouse intake, reducing mold risk and helping processors stabilize color and moisture without additional energy costs.
No frost or rainfall events are expected in the next three days, and there are no fresh reports of weather-related disruptions to harvest logistics. With the main drying window effectively secured, remaining production risk for the 2026 crop is now low, shifting the market’s focus firmly onto commercial factors such as export pace, currency moves and competition from other dried fruits like figs and raisins.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Low stocks, normal crop: The combination of a normal-to-good 2026 harvest and minimal carryover keeps the balance sheet tight but not stressed, anchoring prices rather than pushing them sharply higher.
- Cost inflation: Research on Turkish apricot price formation confirms that input costs and general inflation are key drivers; with Turkish agricultural costs still elevated, producers resist price cuts in EUR terms even when the lira weakens.
- Board vs. physical market: Local commentators in Malatya continue to criticize price volatility and perceived speculation, but there have been no new regulatory or intervention announcements in the last few days that would directly alter dried apricot pricing.
- Competing dried fruits: New-season Turkish dried figs and other dried fruits are also entering the market, but early reports suggest balanced supply, limiting substitution-driven demand shocks for apricots in the very short term.
Trading Outlook (3–10 days)
- For buyers: Near-term downside in EUR looks limited while Malatya weather stays ideal and exporters face firm domestic reference prices. Staggered buying for Q4 needs around current levels appears prudent, with opportunistic bids only slightly below today’s FCA/FOB ranges.
- For sellers: With stocks still modest and no immediate harvest shock, maintaining offer discipline around EUR 8.0–8.2/kg FOB for standard grades is justified. Consider rewarding large, prompt buyers with small tactical discounts rather than broad list price cuts.
- Risk focus: Watch for any sudden softening in EU dried fruit demand or stronger competition from alternative origins; absent such catalysts, the short-term bias is sideways to marginally firmer rather than lower.