Turkish Hazelnut Kernels Edge Higher as TMO Support Kicks In

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR are edging modestly higher on processed grades while remaining slightly softer on natural kernels, as the 2026 harvest moves into full swing and state-backed support via TMO anchors in‑shell values. The near-term bias is mildly firmer for roasted products and stable to slightly higher for natural kernels, with strong export interest expected into September. With official harvest and export windows now open across the Black Sea hazelnut belt, physical flows from Ordu, Giresun and Trabzon are ramping up. Recent estimates still point to a sizeable Turkish crop broadly in line with last season, while the start of TMO purchasing in key producing provinces provides a solid floor to in-shell prices and underpins kernel offers from Istanbul and İzmir. Weather in the main growing belt is seasonally mild with no acute stress, so short-term price action looks dominated by logistics, farmer selling pace and early export demand rather than crop risk.

Prices

Processed roasted grades in Turkey are showing a modest firming in EUR terms week-on-week, reflecting better nearby demand from confectionery buyers and a slight widening of the spread over natural kernels. Natural kernel prices, by contrast, are marginally lower than a week ago, despite the seasonal start of harvest in Ordu and Giresun. On the in-shell side, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has now started 2026 crop hazelnut purchases in Ordu, Giresun and Düzce, with intervention prices around TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality and TRY 250/kg for Levant quality at 50% sound kernel yield. In the free market, in-shell prices in Giresun and Ordu are currently trading at a discount to these levels, but the announced floor is already lending support and limiting downside.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish Ministry of Trade has formally opened harvest and export windows for 2026 hazelnuts across the Black Sea belt, with higher-altitude zones in Ordu, Samsun, Tokat and Giresun entering the harvest period between 24–25 August 2026 and export permissions following from late August. This coincides with active picking in coastal and mid-slope orchards, as highlighted by local authorities in Ordu. Recent regional estimates suggest that Turkey’s 2026 hazelnut crop will be similar to the previous season, with one major exporter survey pointing to around 829,000 tonnes of in-shell production. Ordu is again projected as the top producing province, with solid contributions from Sakarya and Giresun, reinforcing Turkey’s dominant export position. On the demand side, global kernel shipments from Turkey in the 2025/26 marketing year (August–June) have been slightly below the prior year on average, but strong June exports and forward buying for Q4 confectionery demand indicate that international buyers are gradually accepting the new-crop price structure and stepping back into the market. This underpins medium-term demand for Turkish kernels even as short-term liquidity remains seasonally thin during the height of harvest.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short-range forecasts for the central and eastern Black Sea coast, including Ordu, Giresun and Trabzon, show seasonally mild late-August conditions with moderate temperatures and scattered showers, but no widespread extreme heat or heavy rainfall events over the next week. With the nuts already physiologically mature and harvest underway, this pattern is broadly favourable, supporting drying and handling without introducing significant new quality risks. Local agronomic guidance in Ordu and Giresun continues to stress timely harvest and careful drying to protect kernel quality and avoid mould issues. Provided weather remains on this relatively benign path, the main near-term risks to supply quality stem more from post-harvest practices and labour availability than from climatic shocks.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• TMO intervention: The start of TMO purchases in core provinces at administered prices well above current spot free-market levels is effectively putting a floor under in-shell prices and, by extension, Turkish kernel offers.
• Harvest timing: Official harvest and export calendars, staggered by altitude bands, mean that physical availability of new-crop hazelnuts is now rapidly increasing, especially from mid- and high-altitude orchards opened from 17–25 August onward.
• Crop size: Early 2026 crop estimates from industry and official sources cluster around a large but not record Turkish harvest, keeping global supply comfortable but not burdensome.
• Export demand: Kernel exports out of Turkey have been somewhat softer year-on-year, but recent months show improving shipment figures, with expectations for stronger Q4 demand from European chocolate and confectionery manufacturers.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (roasters, confectioners): Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs on current Istanbul FOB kernel levels, particularly roasted meal and diced grades which are starting to firm. Price downside looks limited by TMO support and solid crop fundamentals.
• Origin sellers (TR): For farmers and exporters, the emerging spread between TMO in-shell prices and free-market levels argues for patience where storage is available, as kernel and in-shell quotations may edge higher once early harvest pressure eases and stronger export demand emerges in September.
• European buyers (EUR-based): Monitor TRY volatility, but current EUR-denominated kernel prices remain historically competitive versus Georgian and other origins. Staggered purchasing into autumn could balance price risk with supply security.

3-Day Price Indication (TR, Kernels)

• Istanbul FOB natural kernels (11–15 mm): Mildly firm to stable in EUR over the next 3 days, with limited downside as TMO support filters through in-shell values and export enquiries slowly pick up.
• Istanbul FOB roasted kernels (meal, diced): Bias remains modestly upward as processors secure raw material at harvest and pass through higher costs into processed kernel quotations.
• İzmir FOB organic kernels: Broadly stable, with a slight upward tilt possible if conventional prices continue to edge higher and niche European demand remains active.