Turkish Hazelnut Kernels Steady Before New-Crop, Soft Weather Support

Hazelnut kernel prices in Turkey are broadly steady to slightly firmer ahead of the 2026 harvest, with modest gains in processed kernels and stable organic premiums. Calm Black Sea weather in the coming days and expectations of a larger Turkish crop are limiting further upside, keeping the market in a narrow range. Turkish hazelnuts remain anchored by stable domestic in-shell prices around TRY 170/kg in Ordu’s free market, while exporters prepare for new-crop kernel offers as harvest approaches. Recent official commentary from Georgia highlights expectations that a bigger Turkish crop this season will cap international prices versus 2025, reinforcing a more balanced global supply picture. In the core Turkish hazelnut belt of Ordu–Giresun, forecasts call for partly cloudy, seasonally warm conditions with scattered showers over the next week, supporting nut fill but not yet generating harvest pressure.

Prices

FOB Istanbul prices for conventional Turkish hazelnut kernels are broadly sideways: natural 13–15 mm at about EUR 8.18/kg and 11–13 mm near EUR 7.62/kg, with roasted diced 2–4 mm around EUR 7.10/kg and roasted meal stable at roughly EUR 6.00/kg. Processed forms thus carry only a modest premium over natural kernels, reflecting comfortable short-term availability. Organic kernels from İzmir continue to trade at a wide premium, with blanched roasted product near EUR 22.7/kg and size‑graded organic kernels between roughly EUR 18.3–19.4/kg FOB.

Supply & Demand

In Turkey’s key Black Sea provinces, official and local sources point to strong nut set but also highlight ongoing concerns over quality risks from internal rot, mold and brown marmorated stink bug damage, which could temper effective output despite a larger headline crop. Nonetheless, regional authorities continue to underline the strategic importance of hazelnuts around Ordu and Giresun, with EU‑supported projects aiming to raise orchard productivity and quality.

On the demand side, Turkish free‑market in-shell prices around TRY 170/kg (50% yield basis) for Levant quality in Ordu indicate neither tightness nor surplus, as buyers wait for the state grain board (TMO) to reveal 2026/27 intervention prices after having supported the market last season at TRY 195–200/kg depending on quality. In the international market, Georgian exporters expect higher Turkish availability this season to ease the tightness and unusually high prices seen in 2025, signaling more price competition in core European destinations.

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR)

According to the Turkish State Meteorological Service, the period from 29 July to 4 August will bring partly cloudy to locally cloudy skies across northern Turkey, with isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly over the interior of the Black Sea region, including inland Ordu and Giresun. Temperatures are forecast near to slightly above seasonal norms, which is generally favorable for kernel filling in late July.

No widespread extreme heat or prolonged heavy rainfall is indicated in the official 7‑day outlook, reducing immediate risk of weather‑driven yield losses or harvest delays. However, scattered convective showers could locally increase disease pressure where orchard management and drying capacity are limited, reinforcing the current focus on quality rather than pure volume in market discussions.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Crop expectations: Field reports from Giresun suggest heavy nut clusters on branches, pointing to potentially high gross yields, but with uncertainty about final marketable output due to quality issues.
• Policy backdrop: The role of TMO in setting shelling‑season reference prices remains a key anchor for farmer selling behavior and early‑season kernel offers; the trade is watching for any adjustment from last season’s 195–200 TRY/kg intervention levels.
• Global competition: Statements from major Georgian exporters underline that Turkey’s larger expected crop is likely to cap international kernel prices this season compared with 2025, especially for standard qualities.
• Premiums for quality and organic: With mold and insect damage still a concern in parts of the Black Sea belt, buyers remain willing to pay significant premiums for reliable origin, traceability and certified organic supply, supporting the wide gap between conventional and organic kernel prices.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers: Consider gradual coverage for Q4 2026 needs at current kernel levels, focusing on higher‑spec and organic lots where quality risk is lower and premiums are justified. Avoid over‑committing on standard grades until clearer signals emerge from TMO pricing and first new‑crop arrivals.
• Sellers / processors: With FOB prices stable and weather benign, maintaining offers in the current range appears reasonable, but be prepared for modest downward pressure if early harvest results confirm both good volumes and acceptable quality.
• Risk factors to monitor: Any shift toward prolonged wet weather during harvest in August or a more aggressive TMO intervention price could quickly alter farmer selling patterns and kernel price direction.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (TR, kernels FOB)

• Istanbul – natural kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Sideways to slightly softer in EUR terms over the next three days, assuming stable TRY and no surprise policy headlines.
• Istanbul – roasted kernels (diced, meal): Sideways; ample short‑term availability and limited fresh demand signals.
• İzmir – organic kernels: Sideways; strong niche demand and limited certified supply should keep EUR‑denominated prices well supported.