Turkish Hazelnut Prices Ease as New Crop Harvest Accelerates

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging slightly lower as the 2026 harvest gathers pace and TMO’s new in-shell support prices anchor farmer expectations. EU-delivered Georgian kernels are also softer, narrowing but not closing the gap to Turkish FOB offers. The 2026 Turkish hazelnut season is now in full swing, with harvest underway across Giresun, Ordu and Western Black Sea orchards. New-crop physical availability and the recently announced TMO in-shell purchase prices are tempering upside in kernels despite higher labour and drying costs. Domestic free-market in-shell prices in key producing provinces show some resistance below TMO levels, but current trades confirm only modest farmer selling. With generally favourable late-summer weather in the Black Sea region and adequate global supply from Turkey and competing origins, near-term price risks for kernels appear slightly skewed to the downside rather than a sharp rally.

Prices

FOB Turkish hazelnut kernel prices (Istanbul) are modestly softer week-on-week in EUR terms. Conventional natural 11–13 mm kernels are around EUR 7.35–7.45/kg FOB equivalent, while 13–15 mm are roughly EUR 7.85–7.95/kg FOB. These levels reflect a 1–2% decline versus early August as harvest pressure begins to weigh on offers.

In-shell reference prices support this picture. TMO’s 2026 purchase prices were set at TRY 255/kg for Giresun quality, 250 for Levant and 245 for Sivri hazelnuts, on a 50% kernel yield basis, creating a state-backed floor for grower returns. Yet free-market trades in Giresun reportedly include new-crop 50% yield lots at around TRY 200/kg, indicating buyer resistance to official levels and confirming limited immediate upside.

Supply & Demand

Harvest started around 8 August in Giresun and is now widely underway across the Black Sea belt, with orchards actively picking and drying nuts on farmyards and concrete patios. Early field observations point to generally good yields and quality, with strong kernel-outturn expectations in Giresun according to agronomist notes from mid-July.

TMO’s intervention provides an important income anchor after last season’s grower dissatisfaction with real-price erosion amid high inflation. However, current free-market bids below TMO thresholds signal that exporters and traders are cautious about committing at official levels until clearer visibility on global demand emerges. Domestic spot prices compiled across Black Sea provinces confirm a wide band of TRY 160–210/kg depending on quality and location.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

In the core hazelnut belt (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Sakarya, Düzce), mid-August weather has turned more seasonally mild after earlier showers, allowing for improved drying conditions on open-air patios. Local reports from Giresun highlight that sunnier intervals in recent days have accelerated drying and threshing operations.

Short-term forecasts for the Turkish Black Sea coast over the next 3–5 days point to partly cloudy skies, scattered brief showers and temperatures in the mid-20s °C. This pattern is generally adequate for harvest, with only short disruptions expected from passing rainfall. No widespread extreme events (storms, heat spikes or flooding) are currently flagged that would materially affect the 2026 crop size or post-harvest quality.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• State support: Newly announced 2026 TMO in-shell prices are notably higher than many current free-market bids, limiting downside for farmers but potentially compressing exporter margins if global kernel demand remains cautious.
• Labour and processing costs: Reports from Ordu show elevated seasonal wages for threshing and drying services, reflecting tight rural labour and short, intense work windows. These higher costs add to growers’ resistance against lower bids.
• Global balance: International industry analyses point to adequate world hazelnut supply into 2026, with Turkey remaining dominant but with additional volume from Chile, the U.S. and Georgia. Combined with still-uncertain confectionery demand growth in Europe, this caps aggressive price rallies.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term buyers (roasters, confectioners): Consider staggered coverage on dips around current FOB Turkish levels, as harvest pressure and cautious exporter buying could keep kernels slightly soft in late August.
• Exporters in Turkey: Hedge exposure carefully against TMO reference levels; avoid overcommitting to growers at or above state prices until export demand and FX trends clarify.
• EU buyers of Georgian origin: The premium of Georgian FCA Warsaw offers over Turkish FOB remains sizeable; opportunistic substitution into Turkish kernels is attractive if quality and specifications permit.

3-day Price Direction (TR focus)

• TR, FOB Istanbul kernels (all sizes): Slightly bearish to sideways in EUR over the next 3 days as harvest flows increase and buyers test lower bids.
• TR, in-shell domestic (Black Sea provinces): Sideways with a soft tone around current TRY levels, but TMO purchase prices should prevent any sharp decline.
• GE, FCA Warsaw kernels: Mildly bearish bias, tracking both Turkish offers and broader nut-complex sentiment.