Turkish Hazelnuts Ease Lower as New-Crop Pressure Builds

Export prices for Turkish hazelnut kernels in Istanbul have softened modestly ahead of the main harvest, with conventional grades edging down week‑on‑week while value‑added and organic segments remain broadly stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms. The market is transitioning from tight old‑crop logistics to growing confidence about the incoming 2026/27 crop. Trade sources and recent government assessments still point to a comparatively large Turkish hazelnut crop versus the frost‑reduced 2025/26 season, which had driven prices sharply higher. Export demand from Europe remains steady but more price‑sensitive, as confectionery buyers cautiously rebuild coverage after earlier high‑price purchases. Domestic inflation and a weak lira continue to support farmers’ price expectations, but FOB offers in EUR are now drifting lower, especially for standard natural kernels.

Prices

Latest indicative Turkish FOB hazelnut kernel prices (converted to EUR) as of 3 August 2026:

(Indicative conversion assumes 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR; levels rounded.)

• Conventional natural kernels in Istanbul are down around 1.5–2% week‑on‑week in EUR terms.
• Roasted meal and diced products are flat, suggesting stable industrial demand with limited spot re‑pricing pressure.
• Organic products out of Izmir remain at a steep premium, with only marginal firming, in line with tighter certified supply and contract‑driven demand into the EU.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains by far the dominant global hazelnut supplier, accounting for well over half of world production and exports. For marketing year 2024/25, official and industry estimates converged around a robust Turkish crop in the 675,000–740,000 t in‑shell equivalent range, rebuilding stocks after the prior frost‑affected season.

Recent export statistics for early 2026 show that volumes were slower year‑on‑year but supported by significantly higher average export prices, especially into the EU confectionery and chocolate sector. As prices have eased from their early‑season peaks, European buyers are returning more actively to the market, focusing on standard natural grades from Istanbul while maintaining specialty and organic procurement via western ports such as Izmir.

• Old‑crop availability is adequate, but many growers delayed sales, waiting for TMO and private‑sector price signals; this has limited farmer selling at lower TRY levels.
• Global demand is steady rather than booming, with some demand rationing in price‑sensitive segments after last season’s spike.
• Competition from Georgia and the EU is present but limited in scale compared with Turkish volumes.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Hazelnut production in Türkiye is concentrated along the Black Sea coast (Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Sakarya, Düzce and neighboring provinces). In early August 2026, regional weather has been seasonally warm with intermittent showers and no recent reports of widespread frost or extreme wind in the coastal belt.

Medium‑range forecasts for the next week for the eastern and central Black Sea signal near‑normal temperatures and scattered rainfall, supportive for nut filling and harvest preparations, with only localized risks of heavy downpours. Field commentary so far does not indicate major new damage, reinforcing expectations for at least an average crop, in contrast to the significant frost losses seen in 2025/26 that had lifted global prices.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Currency & inflation: A weak Turkish lira and persistently high domestic inflation mean local TRY farm‑gate prices remain crucial for grower selling decisions. However, in EUR terms, current FOB offers show modest softening as global buyers push back against previous highs.
• Policy & TMO role: In recent seasons, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has announced support purchase prices and intervened in the market to stabilize grower incomes. Market participants now focus on upcoming TMO guidance for the new crop, which will shape the floor for farmer sales.
• Industrial demand: Major processors and branded chocolate manufacturers continue to rely on Turkish supply, though some have diversified origins for risk management and sustainability reasons, limiting upside in demand for Turkish kernels at very high prices.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View (TR)

With harvest starting and weather broadly favorable, near‑term risks for EUR‑denominated FOB prices in Türkiye are mildly to the downside, especially for standard natural kernels, while value‑added and organic products are likely to remain better supported.

• For buyers:
  • Use current softening in Istanbul natural grades to extend coverage modestly into Q4, but avoid over‑buying ahead of TMO price announcements.
  • Consider diversifying between 11‑13 mm and 13‑15 mm sizes, as the spread has narrowed and liquidity is higher in smaller sizes.
• For sellers / processors:
  • Maintain offer discipline on roasted and organic products where contract demand remains firm.
  • Be prepared for additional buyer pressure on natural kernel prices if early harvest yields confirm an above‑average crop.

Short‑term (next 3 days) directional view, TR FOB, in EUR:

• Istanbul natural kernels (11‑13 mm, 13‑15 mm): mildly bearish to sideways (‑0.5% to ‑1% possible as new‑crop offers emerge).
• Istanbul roasted meal and diced: largely stable, narrow range trading expected.
• Izmir organic kernels and roasted organic: sideways to slightly firm, supported by limited spot availability and steady EU demand.