Turkish Hazelnuts Hold Firm as Market Waits for New-Crop Signals

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are edging slightly higher but remain broadly stable, with a firm tone driven by tight old-crop supply after weather-related losses and uncertainty over the upcoming TMO intervention price. The near-term bias is mildly bullish for high-quality and organic kernels, while buyers stay cautious ahead of the new-crop campaign. Old-crop availability in the Black Sea region is thin after frost- and weather-related damage earlier in the 2025/26 season, and local Turkish spot prices have already risen sharply compared with last year according to recent regional quotes. Industrial demand in Europe remains solid but more price-sensitive, especially for premium sizes and organic kernels sourced from Türkiye. With markets still waiting for the official 2026/27 TMO support price and early new-crop quality signals, most participants are limiting large forward commitments and focusing on short-term coverage.

Prices

FOB Turkish hazelnut kernel prices in EUR (indicative, based on latest offers):

Domestic free-market in-shell prices in core producing provinces (e.g. Ordu, Giresun, Sakarya) were reported up around the end of July, with producers and traders closely watching the government and TMO for 2026/27 floor price guidance.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains by far the largest global hazelnut supplier, accounting for the majority of world production, and is coming off a season of weather-related shortfalls that contributed to tighter export availability and higher international prices. Recent international estimates had already pointed to a significant year-on-year drop in the 2025/26 Turkish crop, tightening global ending stocks despite some increases in other origins such as Chile and the United States.

On the demand side, chocolate and confectionery manufacturers in the EU and UK remain the main buyers of Turkish kernels, but they are increasingly cost-conscious after earlier price spikes and macroeconomic headwinds. Processors reportedly continue to prioritize coverage for core lines but delay optional volumes, contributing to relatively thin nearby liquidity but underlying support for top-quality lots.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook (TR)

In the central and eastern Black Sea heartland (e.g. Giresun), the short-term forecast from 1–3 August calls for humid, mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers and maximum temperatures around 27–29°C. This pattern is seasonally normal for the pre-harvest period and should support kernel filling without adding significant new weather stress.

Earlier in the season, Turkish hazelnut regions experienced episodes of adverse weather and frost, which traders say reduced the 2025/26 output and helped push global prices higher. For the upcoming 2026/27 crop, current short-term forecasts do not indicate acute weather threats, but market participants remain sensitive to any August storms or excessive rainfall that could complicate harvest logistics and quality in coastal orchards.

Fundamentals & Policy Watch

International industry balance sheets still show a relatively tight global hazelnut situation: Turkish beginning stocks into 2025/26 were modest, and the smaller crop left limited room to rebuild inventories worldwide. At the same time, trade analyses suggest that Türkiye’s broader export sector remains resilient, supporting continued kernel export flows but with a focus on value-added processing.

Domestically, producers and traders are waiting for Ankara and the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to announce the new intervention price for the 2026/27 season. Local media coverage at the end of July indicates that expectations for a higher floor price are already underpinning producer offers in the free market. Once the TMO level is official, it will likely set a de facto minimum for export parity on standard quality kernels, with organic and premium sizes trading at a widening differential.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Days)

• Short-term bias: Mildly firmer for Turkish kernels, especially organic and larger sizes, as old-crop supply is tight and producers hold out for higher new-crop pricing.
• For buyers: Consider covering near-term kernel needs (Q3–early Q4) on price dips, particularly for standard 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, while keeping some flexibility for later-season purchases pending TMO price clarity.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline on premium and organic kernels; limited old-crop availability and supportive domestic expectations argue against aggressive discounting ahead of the TMO announcement.
• Risk factors: Any confirmation of smaller-than-expected Turkish crop, further weather issues during harvest, or a higher-than-anticipated TMO floor could trigger another leg up in international prices.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, FOB/TR)

• Organic kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Stable to slightly firmer bias (about +0.05–0.10 EUR/kg potential).
• Conventional natural kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Largely stable with an upward tilt; downside limited by domestic producer price expectations.
• Processed forms (roasted, diced/meal): Steady; margins more affected by energy and labour costs than by raw-kernel moves in the very short term.