Turkish Hazelnuts Steady Ahead of New-Crop Flow as TMO Sets the Floor
Turkish hazelnut kernel prices stay broadly stable as the 2026 harvest advances, backed by TMO support and solid EU confectionery demand. Short-term outlook in EUR.
Prices
All prices converted approximately from USD to EUR at 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD for comparability.
Non-organic kernels out of Istanbul show a modest softening compared with late July, reflecting pre-harvest seller competition and expectations of improved availability. Organic kernels and value-added organic products out of İzmir remain broadly stable to slightly firmer, maintaining a sizeable premium over conventional supply.
Supply & Demand
Türkiye remains the dominant global hazelnut supplier, producing roughly two-thirds of world output, with orchards concentrated along the Black Sea coast . Recent analysis highlights that structural factors and policy support have kept production expanding but also exposed the sector to volatility from weather and policy decisions . International confectionery and chocolate demand continues to anchor export flows, with major players such as Ferrero relying heavily on Turkish kernels via their integrated sourcing chains .
In late July and early August, local and international commentary has focused on a relative tightening of global hazelnut availability following previous weather issues in Türkiye and competing origins, which underpins a perception of a "global shortage" in some downstream markets . At the same time, state-backed mechanisms like the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) continue to act as a stabilizing buyer of in-shell hazelnuts, smoothing producer income and limiting the downside for farm-gate prices . This policy backdrop reduces the likelihood of a sharp collapse in kernel values even if early new-crop arrivals are robust.
Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)
Key hazelnut provinces on the Black Sea coast such as Ordu and Giresun are experiencing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with daytime highs around 29°C and only isolated showers through August 10, 2026 . Further west in Sakarya, weather is hotter, with highs in the low-30s Celsius, very warm and humid but generally conducive to drying, interrupted by a few localized showers . These short-term forecasts support timely harvest, drying, and initial deliveries, with no immediate signal of weather-related quality issues for the early-picked crop.
Fundamentals & Policy Signals
Recent official and industry estimates for earlier seasons placed Türkiye’s hazelnut production in the 675,000–785,000 tonne range, highlighting both the scale of supply and the uncertainty around final volumes each year . For the current marketing year, public information indicates that TMO continues to use relatively high in-shell support prices compared with seasons before 2025, after it set purchase levels around 200 TRY/kg for premium Giresun quality and slightly below for Levant quality in the 2025–26 season . This elevated floor, combined with inflation and higher production costs, limits growers’ willingness to accept substantially lower kernel-equivalent prices.
On the demand side, EU chocolate and confectionery manufacturers remain the key outlet for Turkish kernels, with hazelnuts deeply embedded in high-value chocolate exports . While end-user demand is sensitive to price, especially in lower value-added segments, structural use in branded spreads and premium chocolate provides resilience. Trade participants also continue to monitor the implementation of EU sustainability and deforestation-related regulations, which could influence documentation and compliance costs along the supply chain for nuts and derived products, although hazelnut-specific impacts remain limited at this stage .
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations
Market outlook (next 2–4 weeks)
- Price direction: With harvest-friendly weather and the market still digesting early new-crop indications, kernel prices are likely to trade broadly sideways, with a mild upward bias for high-quality and organic lots.
- Volatility drivers: Any surprise in TMO’s effective buying pace and storage policy, or evidence of quality problems (shrinkage, defects) in early deliveries, could quickly translate into sharper moves in kernel offers.
- Spreads: The price gap between organic and conventional kernels, and between large and small sizes, should remain wide, reflecting demand concentration in premium applications and limited organic availability.
Trading recommendations
- Buyers (EU confectionery, roasters): Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs now while FOB offers are stable and harvest is progressing smoothly. Focus on securing quality and traceability rather than waiting for significant price concessions that are unlikely under current TMO support levels.
- Turkish processors/exporters: Use current price stability to lock in forward sales on a rolling basis, avoiding excessive short positions before the full scale and quality profile of the 2026 crop is confirmed. Differentiating organic and certified sustainable lots may attract additional premiums.
- Speculative participants: Given the policy floor and constructive demand, downside appears limited in the very short term; option-based strategies around potential weather or policy headlines may offer more attractive risk-reward than outright short futures-equivalent exposure.
3-day regional price indication (directional, TR FOB kernels)
- Marmara (Istanbul FOB, non-organic kernels): Stable to slightly softer in EUR terms as early new-crop offers emerge and competition among exporters remains firm.
- Aegean (İzmir FOB, organic kernels): Stable to slightly firmer, with buyers accepting current premiums for certified organic and value-added products.
- Black Sea origins feeding Istanbul/İzmir: Stable in local-currency terms underpinned by TMO’s high in-shell reference and supportive early harvest weather.