Turkish Hazelnuts Steady as New TMO Season Starts and Harvest Nears

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are broadly steady to slightly softer as the 2026/27 buying season opens, with FOB offers in Türkiye holding near recent ranges and export interest gradually rebuilding from low shipment levels. Weather in key Black Sea growing areas remains seasonally warm and mostly dry-to-partly-cloudy, supportive for final ripening and early harvest logistics over the next few days. Physical trading is still cautious after last season’s export slowdown and earlier price corrections, but the recent announcement of new TMO in-shell purchase prices and expectations for a structurally smaller 2025/26 Turkish crop versus two years ago are putting a floor under farmer selling ideas. With EU chocolate and confectionery demand slowly improving from last year’s lows, the short‑term balance points to a sideways market with a modest upward bias into the core harvest and early export program.

Prices

All prices below are indicative, converted to EUR and refer to late-week offers as of 13 August 2026.

• Organic Turkish kernels (İzmir FOB) are flat to marginally higher week-on-week, suggesting a stable premium niche and balanced nearby demand.
• Conventional Turkish kernel offers (Istanbul FOB) are slightly below late-July levels, reflecting last season’s export weakness and competitive pressure from Georgia and other origins.
• Georgian kernels FCA Poland continue to trade at a discount to Turkish organic but a small premium to Turkish conventional kernels, indicating good EU interest in alternative origins.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the key driver for global hazelnut fundamentals, accounting for roughly two‑thirds of world production and around three‑quarters of exports in a normal year.

• Crop outlook Türkiye: Recent industry and USDA data point to a structurally smaller 2025/26 Turkish crop versus the very large 2024/25 season, with industry estimates near 520,000–550,000 t in‑shell equivalent versus ~675,000–785,000 t previously.
• Exports: Shipment reports up to late February showed Turkish kernel exports running roughly 40–50% below the previous season on cumulative basis, due to high price levels, lower demand and competition from other origins.
• Competing origins: INC data highlight sizeable 2025/26 crops in Chile, USA and China, partly offsetting the Turkish decline and creating a more balanced global supply picture.
• Demand: EU confectionery and chocolate manufacturers remain the dominant buyers of Turkish kernels, with gradual volume recovery but ongoing price sensitivity after last year’s cost spikes.

On the policy side, Turkey’s Grain Board (TMO) has announced new in‑shell hazelnut purchase prices for the 2026/27 season in early August, reinforcing its role as price floor for growers and anchoring expectations ahead of peak harvest sales. This should reduce downside risk for farm‑gate prices but may keep export kernels relatively firm versus other origins.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

Weather in the core Black Sea hazelnut belt is seasonally warm and mostly dry, with some humidity and only isolated brief showers forecast over the next three days.

• Ordu (Eastern Black Sea): 14–16 August: highs around 27–28°C, humid, a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of brief light showers; no severe events seen.
• Sakarya (Western Black Sea/Marmara): 14–16 August: mostly sunny, highs around 28–29°C, lower humidity and no meaningful rainfall expected.

These conditions are generally favourable for final nut filling, pre‑harvest orchard work and early collection and drying. No immediate weather‑driven yield or quality threats are visible over the very short term, supporting a stable near‑term supply outlook from Türkiye.

Fundamentals & Policy

• TMO price floor: The new 2026/27 TMO in‑shell buying prices, announced in early August, come on top of previously high 2024/25 support levels and remain well above long‑term averages. This underpins grower income but limits the downside for kernel export offers.
• Stocks: Earlier export under‑performance implies relatively comfortable Turkish carry‑over stocks into the new campaign, partly offsetting the smaller crop and helping to keep prices in check.
• Global balance: The latest INC projections for 2025/26 point to a modest tightening versus 2024/25, but world supplies remain adequate thanks to increased output in Chile, USA and China. Overall, fundamentals are neutral‑to‑slightly supportive rather than overtly bullish.
• Currency & inflation: Persistent Turkish inflation and a relatively weak lira versus EUR keep local cost pressure high, but also support exporters’ competitiveness in EUR terms, helping explain steady FOB kernel prices despite elevated domestic in‑shell values.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• For buyers (roasters, chocolatiers, traders):
  • Use current sideways price action to secure a portion of Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs, particularly for organic Turkish kernels where offers are stable and premiums to conventional are manageable.
  • Maintain some flexibility for additional cover later in harvest in case export competition from Chile, USA and Georgia exerts mild downward pressure on kernel prices.
• For sellers (growers, exporters, shellers in TR):
  • Leverage the TMO price floor by selling gradually into any upticks, avoiding heavy forward commitments until the real export pace from September–October becomes clearer.
  • Consider differentiating on quality and certification (organic, traceability) where export demand appears more resilient and less price‑elastic.
• For hedgers and risk managers:
  • Given neutral‑to‑slightly supportive fundamentals, prioritize downside protection strategies (e.g., minimum‑price structures) rather than aggressive bearish positioning.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Türkiye, organic kernels FOB İzmir (11–15 mm, roasted/chopped): Stable to slightly firmer bias (0 to +1%) as TMO buying begins and weather remains benign.
• Türkiye, conventional kernels FOB Istanbul (11–15 mm): Largely stable (−1% to +1%), with limited liquidity ahead of broader harvest selling.
• Georgia kernels FCA Poland (11–15 mm): Stable to mildly softer (0 to −1%) on competition from Turkish offers and adequate European coverage.