Ukrainian Peas: Harvest Complete, Prices Under Pressure as Farmers Hold Stocks

Ukrainian peas are entering the market after a completed harvest, but prices remain subdued and farmer selling is restrained, especially for green peas. Yellow pea prices have stabilized at low levels, and producers are betting on better values later in the season. Pea harvesting in Ukraine is finished, with 298 thousand hectares threshed and around 790 thousand tonnes collected, adding substantial early legume supply. Yet, demand signals remain weak: yellow peas are priced at a low plateau, while green peas are trading at roughly half of last year’s levels. This divergence between ample supply and cautious farmer selling will shape pricing into the winter, with Ukraine’s export competitiveness also depending on logistics and competition from other origins.

Prices

Yellow peas in Ukraine are currently indicated at 220–230 USD/t FCA, effectively marking a price floor after recent declines. Converted to euros, this is roughly EUR 205–215/t FCA depending on the exact exchange rate at the time of the deal. Market participants describe prices as having “stopped” at this level, suggesting a temporary stabilization rather than a decisive reversal.

Green peas in Ukraine are valued around 9,000 UAH/t, equivalent to roughly EUR 210/t, which is about half of last season’s level and perceived by farmers as unacceptably low. Latest offers in Odesa show yellow peas around EUR 0.17/kg (EUR 170/t) and green peas around EUR 0.22/kg (EUR 220/t) on an FCA basis, highlighting modest pressure on yellow and flat conditions for green. Price spreads to UK FOB markets remain large, with British green peas near EUR 970/t and marrowfat peas around EUR 1,260/t FOB, underlining Ukraine’s discount but also reflecting quality, logistics and market segmentation.

Supply & Demand

Ukrainian farmers have threshed 100% of the pea area, totaling 298 thousand hectares and 790 thousand tonnes. This confirms a solid domestic crop and assures exportable surpluses early in the 2026/27 season. With barley and peas harvested, on-farm storage is filling quickly, raising the importance of cash-flow needs and logistics capacity for near-term selling decisions.

Despite the ample harvest, farmers are in no hurry to market green peas because buyer price ideas are seen as too low. Many producers are deliberately holding stocks and targeting potential winter price improvements, effectively tightening spot availability in the short term. For yellow peas, more consistent industrial and feed demand, combined with lower absolute prices, is bringing some movement, but volumes remain cautious. Overall, supply is present but not aggressively offered, which could limit further downside if export or feed demand improves.

Fundamentals & Farmer Behavior

The key market tension lies between heavy new-crop availability and farmers’ reluctance to sell at current depressed prices, particularly for green peas. With green peas earning roughly half of last year’s return, many producers prefer to store and wait, expecting either seasonal tightening or renewed international demand later in the marketing year.

Yellow peas, while also cheap, appear closer to a short-term equilibrium, with prices having “stopped” at 220–230 USD/t FCA and showing signs of consolidation. This suggests that most of the immediate harvest pressure is already priced in. However, any deterioration in export logistics, currency movements or competition from other origins could still cap rallies. The wide gap between Ukrainian and Western European prices underscores Ukraine’s competitiveness but also shows that quality segmentation and freight costs are critical for realizing higher netbacks.

Short-Term Outlook & Weather

With harvesting complete for peas, near-term weather has limited direct impact on 2026 production, but conditions will matter for storage quality and fieldwork for subsequent crops. Assuming normal early-autumn weather patterns in key Ukrainian pulse regions, no major quality risks are expected for stored peas in the next week if handling and aeration are adequate.

In the next three days, the pea market is likely to remain in a narrow range, with buyers testing lower bids but facing farmer resistance, especially for green peas. Any small uptick in export inquiries or domestic feed demand could quickly firm yellow pea prices from current lows. Green peas are more likely to trade sporadically, with occasional premiums paid for specific quality or logistics windows rather than broad-based price appreciation.

Trading Outlook

• Farmers (UA): Consider staged sales of yellow peas around current levels to manage storage and cash-flow risk, while keeping flexibility to capture potential winter gains. For green peas, tight farmer selling can support later prices, but monitor export demand and basis levels closely.
• Domestic buyers (feed/industry): Current yellow pea values offer attractive coverage opportunities. Lock in nearby needs and part of Q4 requirements while farmer selling is still muted and export competition is manageable.
• Exporters/traders: Ukraine remains price-competitive versus Western Europe. Focus on securing logistics and quality differentiation to capture margins, particularly if global pulse demand improves toward winter.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Ukraine, FCA Odesa – Yellow peas: Sideways to slightly firm around EUR 165–175/t; downside limited by farmer price resistance.
• Ukraine, FCA Odesa – Green peas: Mostly sideways around EUR 210–225/t; very thin liquidity as farmers hold stocks.
• UK, FOB London – Green & marrowfat peas: Stable at historically high premiums versus Black Sea origins; no major short-term change expected.