US Walnut Exports Surge as China’s Higher Prices Tighten Global Balance
US in-shell walnut shipments have doubled on strong exports, China’s higher kernel prices and stable EUR values pointing to a firmer global walnut market.
Prices
Recent spot offers indicate a stable but firmer tone in the international walnut kernel market, with no price cuts over the last three weeks despite heavy US shipment volumes. Chinese origin pieces and quarters and premium organic halves from the US and India are all unchanged in EUR terms, pointing to a consolidation phase after earlier weakness.
The stability in kernel prices coincides with a reported sharp rise in Chinese walnut kernel prices over the last two weeks, which reduces discount pressure from the world’s largest producer and exporter. With Chinese quotes no longer undercutting US material as aggressively, buyers are facing a narrower arbitrage between origins, which should support a floor under EUR-denominated prices for the short term.
Supply & Demand
US supply remains ample but is being cleared rapidly through exports. In-shell shipments in May reached 12.862 million pounds, more than double last year’s 5.558 million pounds, with exports soaring to 12.498 million pounds from 5.229 million pounds. Domestic in-shell demand also improved by about 11% to 364,000 pounds, but the main story is the export-led drawdown of inventories.
Cumulative in-shell shipments this season are close to 300 million pounds, more than twice the previous year’s level. Exports have increased by 114%, while domestic movement is up 47%. Turkey has emerged as a key growth engine, with shipments increasing nearly fivefold. The Middle East and Africa have absorbed substantial volumes as well, with exports to this region jumping by 395% from 37 million pounds to 183 million pounds, driven by strong demand in the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco.
By contrast, exports to Europe are slightly weaker, down around 5% to 53.1 million pounds. Within Europe, Spain has reduced purchases by 13%, while Italy has taken 15% more, indicating a shift in intra-European sourcing patterns rather than a uniform decline. India received 10% fewer walnuts, yet overall exports to the Asia-Pacific region still rose by 5%, highlighting diversified growth even where individual markets softened.
Kernel shipments also show healthy demand, with May kernel exports at 39.267 million pounds, up 23% from 31.815 million pounds a year earlier. Export kernel movement increased by 41%, while domestic demand for kernels rose only modestly by 2%. This confirms that international buyers, rather than the US domestic market, remain the main driver of the current tightening in walnut availability.
Fundamentals & External Drivers
The key fundamental change is the combination of aggressive US export sales with a parallel firming of Chinese kernel prices. China, as a major walnut producer, has reported a sharp rise in kernel prices over the past two weeks, which reflects either stronger internal demand, concerns over upcoming crop size or quality, or both. This development reduces the likelihood of cheap Chinese walnuts depressing global prices in the coming months.
On the US side, shipment data signal that the market is successfully placing the crop despite earlier concerns over oversupply. The strong pull from Turkey, the broader Middle East and North Africa is offsetting weaker demand from Europe and India. With cumulative in-shell exports already more than double last year’s level, visible stocks should trend down faster than previously expected, tightening the balance into the next Northern Hemisphere harvest.
Weather and input-cost risks remain a background factor. Higher global energy and fertilizer prices in 2026 increase production costs in key origins, limiting the scope for further price reductions in the new crop. At the same time, any adverse weather during the late growing season in California, China or other producing regions would quickly translate into stronger price support for both in-shell and kernels.
Outlook & Trading Strategy
Over the coming weeks, the walnut market is likely to remain underpinned by strong export demand and firm Chinese pricing, even as the Northern Hemisphere moves closer to new crop. The main risk to this constructive view would be a sharp slowdown in buying from Turkey and MENA importers or a sudden reversal in Chinese kernel prices, but there is limited evidence of that at present.
- Buyers / Importers: Consider covering a portion of Q4 2026 needs now, especially for standard Chinese pieces and US organic halves, as stable EUR prices and firmer Chinese values suggest limited downside but increasing upside risk.
- Roasters & Processors: Use current stability to optimise origin mix, shifting part of volumes towards US material where export-driven stock reduction may tighten availability later in the season.
- Producers / Sellers: Maintain disciplined selling; strong shipment figures and firm Chinese kernels justify resisting significant discounts, particularly for higher-quality and organic grades.
3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)
- Chinese walnut kernels (FOB Dalian): Sideways to slightly firmer; stable current offers with mild upward bias on any additional Chinese price strength.
- US organic walnut halves (FOB Europe): Stable; no immediate pressure to move lower given strong US export program.
- Indian organic walnut halves (FOB New Delhi): Stable; premium over US origin likely maintained as long as global kernel prices stay firm.