US Walnut Exports Surge as Chinese Prices Firm, Supporting Global Values

US walnut exports have surged this season on the back of strong demand from Turkey, the Middle East and Africa, while firmer Chinese prices have removed much of the cheap competition that weighed on the market previously. This has allowed international walnut prices to remain stable but clearly supported, improving sentiment across the US industry despite comparatively high production and ongoing cost pressures. Robust overseas buying, particularly for in-shell walnuts, has sharply reduced US inventories and tightened the balance between supply and demand. Europe and India are somewhat softer, but this weakness is more than offset by rapid growth in Turkey, West Asia and Africa. With Chinese offers no longer undercutting the market, US suppliers are in a stronger pricing position and have been able to maintain firm quotations without triggering demand destruction.

Prices

International walnut prices are described as stable but firm, reflecting a market that has moved away from previous oversupply conditions. Higher Chinese walnut prices have eased the downward pressure from earlier low‑cost Chinese supplies, allowing US exporters to defend and in some cases slightly improve achieved values without losing key customers.

Recent indicative kernel offers, converted into EUR, show Chinese origin light quarters FOB Dalian around EUR 3.3/kg, light pieces 8–12 mm near EUR 2.85/kg, and light amber pieces about EUR 2.30/kg. US organic light halves offered FOB London hover near EUR 4.50/kg, while Indian organic light halves in New Delhi are around EUR 5.30/kg. These levels have been broadly unchanged in recent weeks, underscoring the current price stability.

Supply & Demand

US in‑shell walnut shipments have approached 300 million pounds so far this season, more than double the volume recorded in the same period last year. Overall, export shipments have risen by approximately 114%, while domestic movement has expanded by around 47%, underscoring how strongly global buyers have responded to the more competitive and stable price environment.

Turkey has emerged as the standout growth market, with US walnut purchases increasing almost fivefold compared with the previous season. Shipments to the broader Middle East and Africa have surged by about 395%, jumping from roughly 37 million pounds to 183 million pounds, driven by stronger demand from the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Lebanon, Iraq and Morocco. This geographic diversification is helping the US industry reduce reliance on any single destination.

Fundamentals

Walnut‑kernel trade is also improving. Monthly kernel movement has increased by roughly 23%, supported by a 41% rise in exports and a modest 2% gain in domestic shipments, while cumulative kernel shipments are up around 11%. This indicates that downstream demand for processed product is tracking the in‑shell strength rather than lagging behind it.

Europe remains an important but currently uneven market, with total US shipments to the region slipping by about 5%. Exports to India have also eased, down around 10%. However, rapid growth in several West Asian and African destinations more than compensates for this softness, and overall export volumes are sufficiently strong to draw down US inventories despite comparatively high production.

The resulting improvement in the stock‑to‑use balance, combined with higher Chinese prices, has allowed American suppliers to maintain firm quotations. Weather conditions in key US growing regions, final crop size and still‑high production expenses remain critical variables, but the recent export performance has significantly improved industry sentiment and reduced the immediate risk of heavy stock overhang.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

With inventories tightening from elevated levels and demand in Turkey, the Middle East and Africa proving robust, the near‑term price bias for US walnuts appears sideways to slightly firmer. Much will depend on upcoming weather and yield indications for the next US crop and on whether Chinese prices remain elevated enough to limit aggressive discounting in export markets.

• Buyers: Consider securing a portion of medium‑term needs at current levels, especially for in‑demand sizes and qualities, as firm export demand and healthier inventories limit downside potential in the short run.
• Suppliers: Maintain disciplined offer levels; with export growth outpacing production and Chinese competition less aggressive, there is room to defend current prices rather than chase volume at discounts.
• Traders: Monitor flows into Turkey, the UAE and North Africa closely; any signs of demand saturation or substitution could quickly cap the current firmness, while further strength there would support a tighter global balance.

Over the next three trading days, walnut prices on key European and Asian import routes are expected to remain broadly steady in EUR terms, with a modest upward bias for US origin if export momentum persists and no bearish weather or crop news emerges.