Wheat Futures Under Pressure as Chicago Slides, MATIF Holds Above €240

Wheat markets are diverging: Paris futures are consolidating around €240/t, while Chicago contracts have corrected sharply, pulling global benchmarks lower but leaving EU prices relatively resilient. The international wheat market enters early September with mixed signals. On Euronext, nearby milling wheat (Sep 26) is stable at €240.50/t, though the curve is gently backwardated into 2027–28, signaling adequate forward supply but firm nearby demand. In contrast, CBOT soft red winter wheat has fallen around 2.5–2.8% across the 2026–28 strip, reflecting weaker speculative sentiment and softer US export demand. Physical prices in the Black Sea and EU remain under pressure but show signs of short-term stabilization, as buyers test the downside amid ongoing geopolitical and weather risks.

Prices

On Euronext (MATIF), the September 2026 milling wheat contract last traded at €240.50/t, with December 2026 at €246.25/t and March 2027 at €244.50/t, implying a relatively flat nearby curve and only modest carry into Q1 2027. Further out, prices ease to around €233–237/t for late 2027–2028 expiries, indicating comfortable longer-term supply expectations.

In Chicago, September 2026 wheat settled at 716 USc/bu and December 2026 at 734 USc/bu on 4 September, both down about 2.6–2.7% on the day and roughly 50 cents lower on the week for December, pointing to a clear downside correction in the global benchmark. ICE feed wheat in the UK also softened, with November 2026 closing around 212.50 GBP/t (−1.4%) and deferred months down 1.4–1.7%, in line with the global move.

Physical markets mirror this pressure but with regional nuances. In Ukraine, CPT Odesa wheat is indicated around €165/t for grade 3 and €168/t for grade 2, with feed wheat near €154/t, modestly higher than at end-August after a prior step-down. In Germany, EXW feed wheat in Drentwede trades near €240/t, slightly off recent highs but still broadly aligned with MATIF. US FOB values linked to CBOT (protein 11.5%) are around €230/t equivalent and have eased alongside futures.

Supply & Demand

Futures term structures suggest that global wheat supply for 2026/27 is broadly adequate. The gentle backwardation on MATIF from Q4 2026 into 2027–28 points to comfortable forward availability in Europe, supported by generally good crop prospects in the EU and Black Sea region. Regional USDA and EU outlooks have highlighted stable to slightly higher wheat areas and overall favourable soil moisture in major EU producers such as Germany, France and parts of Eastern Europe for the 2026 harvest.

However, export availability remains constrained by logistics and geopolitics. Ukraine continues to face disruption risks at Odesa-area ports, and recent assessments suggest that 2026/27 Ukrainian agricultural exports, including wheat, could be cut by more than half compared with earlier expectations if attacks persist. This supports Black Sea and EU basis levels despite the recent slide in Chicago. At the same time, a softer US dollar and competitive pricing are necessary for US wheat to attract incremental export demand, which has recently been sluggish.

On the demand side, feed usage faces headwinds where wheat has become relatively expensive versus corn, especially in the US, but in parts of Europe wheat still competes well in rations. Stable food and industrial use in the EU, combined with firm demand from importing regions in North Africa and the Middle East, provides a floor under prices, even as buyers remain highly price-sensitive and opportunistic.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is balancing a mostly decent Northern Hemisphere harvest against lingering risks. EU reports point to generally favourable crop conditions in 2026, though a strong El Niño expected to peak in autumn could bring mixed weather impacts, including potential dryness or excessive rains in some regions. For now, harvest quality out of France and Germany appears adequate, supporting milling wheat supplies and helping cap premiums.

In the Black Sea, production potential remains solid but export flows are constrained by security risks and infrastructure damage, particularly around Odesa ports. This creates a two-tier market: domestic Ukrainian prices remain discounted (e.g., CPT Odesa feed wheat around €154/t), while FOB values carry a risk premium to compensate for higher freight, insurance and delay risks. In the US, ample supplies and improving yield expectations weigh on CBOT futures, reflected in the recent broad-based 20–21 cent daily declines across 2026–29 contracts.

Short-term, weather forecasts for key EU wheat regions indicate mostly normal to slightly favourable conditions, supporting planting and establishment for the next crop cycle. Barring an abrupt shift in patterns or major new crop problems in the Southern Hemisphere, fundamentals skew toward adequate global availability, with price direction driven more by currency moves, geopolitical developments in the Black Sea and speculative flows than by outright scarcity.

Trading Outlook

• Producers (EU): With MATIF Sep 26 around €240.50/t and Dec 26 at €246.25/t, consider scaling in additional hedges on price rallies towards the upper end of the recent €245–250/t range, while keeping some upside open in case of renewed Black Sea or weather shocks.
• Importers (MENA/Asia): The recent CBOT correction and still-discounted Black Sea CPT/FOB values offer opportunities to extend coverage modestly into Q1–Q2 2027, but maintain flexibility given geopolitical risks and freight volatility.
• Feed users (EU livestock sector): With German EXW feed wheat near €240/t and US/Black Sea wheat still relatively high versus corn in some regions, maintain a preference for corn where logistics permit, but use price dips in wheat to secure a portion of rations to hedge against potential El Niño-related volatility.
• Speculators: After the sharp 20+ cent break in Chicago, the risk-reward for fresh shorts is less attractive. Look for retracement rallies to re-establish bearish exposure, or consider relative value trades (e.g., wheat-corn or MATIF–CBOT spreads) where regional fundamentals diverge.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

*CBOT EUR-equivalent based on prevailing FX; indicative only.