Cashew Kernels Hold Firm as Vietnam Lifts Supply, EU Demand Stays Cautious

Cashew kernel prices are broadly steady to slightly softer across India and the Netherlands, while Vietnam shows a mild firming on key grades as processors secure raw nut supplies. Tight but improving raw cashew availability and still-sluggish EU and US demand are keeping the market in a narrow range, with only modest grade‑specific moves expected in the coming days. Cashew trade is in a balancing phase: Vietnamese processors are importing large volumes of raw nuts to keep factories running at high capacity, even as kernel export volumes ease slightly and buyers in Europe and North America remain price‑sensitive. In India, domestic prices are cushioned by festival‑related demand and a still‑supportive rupee cost base, but export offers must compete with aggressively priced Vietnamese kernels into the EU. In the Netherlands, kernel prices remain stable as importers work through comfortable stocks and monitor post‑summer demand. Weather in Hanoi and New Delhi is typical for late monsoon and not disruptive for near‑term supply.

Prices

Indicative cashew kernel prices, converted to EUR at ~0.92 EUR/USD for comparison:

Prices in Vietnam for broken grades (WS, LWP, SP) are also edging higher week‑on‑week, while equivalent Indian grades are fractionally softer, reflecting more comfortable domestic availability. Dutch wholesale prices sit well below Asian FOBs as they include earlier‑booked, lower‑priced arrivals and a margin structure geared to EU retail contracts.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains the key global kernel supplier, with raw cashew nut (RCN) imports exceeding US$3 billion by mid‑July 2026 and volumes around 1.8 million tonnes, up roughly 4% year‑on‑year. This underlines that processors continue to secure raw materials aggressively despite a modest dip in kernel export volumes and slightly firmer kernel export values.

Recent industry commentary from late August points to cautious buying sentiment: EU and US demand has yet to fully rebound after the summer break, keeping transaction volumes in W240 and W320 relatively low and forcing some sellers to accept small discounts to move cargo. Large grades such as W180 and W210 remain better supported amid tighter availability, while WS and LP demand stays subdued.

For India, domestic cashew prices in late August showed only moderate movement as late‑monsoon arrivals, warehouse stocks and festival demand largely offset each other, with average mandi rates around mid‑to‑high‑teens thousand INR per quintal. Exporters continue to face stiff competition from Vietnam into premium markets, especially the EU, where Vietnamese market share – particularly in Germany – has been edging higher thanks to stable supply and EVFTA‑linked tariff advantages.

In Europe, the Netherlands acts mainly as a gateway and redistribution hub. Reported consumer‑level cashew prices in the country in August 2026, around 7.5 EUR/kg on average, indicate comfortable downstream supply and constrained scope for significant near‑term upside in kernel import prices unless origin offers rise sharply.

Fundamentals & Weather

Raw nut fundamentals are mixed. West African RCN supply has tightened seasonally, but Vietnam’s year‑to‑date imports from Cambodia and Africa remain historically high, ensuring that kernel plants in Hanoi and other hubs can operate near capacity. This limits immediate upside for kernel prices even as some buyers test the market with lower bids.

Weather over the next three days is largely non‑disruptive for near‑term cashew flows. In New Delhi, conditions stay mostly cloudy with intermittent rains and highs near 32°C; this is typical monsoon weather and more relevant for local logistics than for orchards, which are mostly in western and southern India. Around Hanoi, hot and hazy conditions with highs around 36–38°C and only isolated showers are expected; this may marginally stress late‑flowering trees but is unlikely to affect current exportable kernel stocks. Dordrecht and the wider Dutch port corridor will see mild, showery and breezy weather, with no major impact expected on warehousing or container handling.

3‑Day Price Outlook & Trading Ideas

Short‑term Price Direction (next 3 days)

• Vietnam (Hanoi, FOB): WW320 and WW240 likely to remain in a tight ±1% band in EUR terms as processors resist further discounts while global demand is still thin. Broken grades may see slightly firmer bids from value‑focused buyers.
• India (New Delhi, FOB/FCA): Mild downside bias of up to 1% in EUR as export‑oriented packers trim offers to stay competitive against Vietnam, while domestic festival demand prevents steeper cuts.
• Netherlands (Dordrecht, FCA): Stable to marginally softer wholesale prices (<1% range) as importers clear summer inventories; spot buyers can still find attractive offers for WW320 and LWP.

Trading Outlook

• Roasters and snack producers in EU: Consider covering Q4 needs on a staggered basis at current Dutch FCA levels, particularly for WW320 and FS, as origin prices in Vietnam show early signs of firming while raw nut costs remain elevated.
• Buyers in India: For export programs, look to hedge a portion of high‑grade needs via Vietnamese suppliers where EUR/kg parity is close, while using domestic supply for flexible or lower‑spec contracts.
• Origin sellers (VN & IN): Maintain price discipline on premium whole grades but remain flexible on brokens to support cash flow in a still‑cautious demand environment.

Across IN, VN and NL, the cashew market over the next three days is expected to trade sideways within narrow bands, with localised discounts mainly on smaller and broken grades rather than headline whole‑kernel benchmarks.