Cashew Market Firms on Indian Festive Demand as Vietnam Faces Headwinds
Cashew prices firm as Indian festive buying meets tighter African raw supply, while Vietnam struggles with weak kernel demand and new US tariffs.
Prices
Vietnamese kernel demand remains weak, with limited W320 business reported around USD 3.00/lb and W240 at USD 3.45–3.60/lb, indicating only selective buying for higher grades. India’s raw cashew market, by contrast, is strengthening as port warehouse stocks decline and processors cover for upcoming festive demand.
EUR-based kernel offers confirm a gradual firming trend. Converting indicative USD quotes at roughly EUR 0.92/USD, Vietnam W320 at about USD 6.60/kg translates near EUR 6.10/kg FOB, broadly in line with current EU-facing indications. Recent Dutch FCA offers for WW320 are around EUR 5.10/kg, with organic WW320 near EUR 6.20/kg, while Indian W320 FOB sits higher near EUR 7.15/kg, reflecting stronger domestic costs and margins.
Supply & Demand
India’s July raw cashew nut imports are estimated at 100,000–125,000 tonnes, but full-year arrivals from Côte d’Ivoire and Togo are expected to remain below last year’s volumes. With port warehouse stocks thinning and a Burkina Faso-origin container selling quickly in Tuticorin, the market is clearly rewarding immediately available RCN.
Domestic wholesalers and repackers in India are replenishing ahead of the festival period, while processing factories in Kollam briefly closed for Onam and are due to restart on 1 September. This temporary shutdown modestly tightens short-term kernel output but reinforces the expectation of stronger Q4 consumption once plants resume and festival orders peak.
In Vietnam, raw cashew imports in the first half of August fell 33% year on year to about 94,652 tonnes, although the average import price rose 8.1% to USD 1,572/tonne. Kernel exports over the same period dropped 8.3% to 30,308 tonnes, and cumulative shipments to mid‑August were only slightly below last year. Weak international demand, especially from the US where new Section 301 tariffs on Vietnamese cashews are being implemented, is encouraging buyers to delay coverage or shift volumes to alternative origins.
Côte d’Ivoire remains central to the supply picture. Between April and July it exported 444,683 tonnes of RCN, including 367,983 tonnes to Vietnam and 76,700 tonnes to India, while local processors purchased a further 750,000–800,000 tonnes. European demand continues to support African shellers; EU kernel imports from Africa rose 43.5% to 26,165 tonnes in the first half of 2026, led by Côte d’Ivoire. However, higher inventories and elevated prices began to slow European buying from May onwards.
Fundamentals
Fundamentals are diverging between RCN and kernels. Tightening RCN availability from West Africa and firm farmer holding are supporting raw prices, even as kernel buyers resist higher offers. This squeeze is most visible in Vietnam, where processors face higher input costs but cannot fully pass them through amid soft export demand and new tariffs into the US.
Grade differentials remain pronounced: larger whole grades such as W180 and W210 are relatively firm, W240 trades at a clear premium to W320, and broken grades (LWP, SWP) continue to discount heavily. European importers, facing higher stocks and elevated prices, are turning more selective, favoring competitively priced W320 and some broken grades while deferring premium coverage where possible.
On the demand side, India stands out as the main bright spot. Festival-driven consumption is already lifting domestic wholesale and repacker demand, with additional upside likely into Diwali and other Q4 holidays. Conversely, in the US and parts of Asia, inflation and tariff uncertainty are dampening near-term consumer and buyer appetite for cashews relative to other nuts.
Weather & Crop Outlook
Recent forecasts for West Africa’s coastal belt, including Côte d’Ivoire, point to seasonally typical showers and warm temperatures over the coming days, with no major anomalies flagged that would materially alter the already-harvested 2026 crop. While this means no fresh weather shock on the supply side, the earlier shortfall in West African output and slower flow of late-season RCN into Vietnam continue to underpin the market.
Attention is slowly turning to upcoming crops in Tanzania and Indonesia. Early market commentary suggests producers there will seek high opening prices to compensate for elevated input and logistics costs, which may limit any downside in global RCN values as the new origins come to market. Buyers should prepare for a scenario where kernels remain capped by consumer resistance, but RCN does not correct substantially lower.
Trading Outlook
- Short-term (next 2–4 weeks): Bias is firm-to-steady. Indian festive demand, low port stocks and reduced West African arrivals are likely to support RCN and mid‑range kernel grades. Any price dips on W320 and LWP/SWP should find good buying interest.
- Q4 2026: Watch the interaction between Tanzanian/Indonesian RCN pricing and continued weak US buying. If new crop RCN opens at elevated levels and tariffs keep US demand subdued, Vietnam’s margins may compress further, potentially shifting more demand toward Indian and African kernels.
- Risk factors: Sharper-than-expected slowdown in EU and US snack demand, stronger USD-EUR moves affecting import costs, or logistical disruptions in West Africa or India could quickly change the balance.
3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)
- EU (FCA NL, WW320): Sideways to slightly firmer around EUR 5.0–5.2/kg as buyers test higher levels but face resistance.
- Vietnam (FOB, WW320): Steady to marginally softer near an implied EUR 6.0–6.2/kg, pressured by slow export demand but supported by firm RCN.
- India (FOB/FCA, W320): Firm around EUR 6.9–7.2/kg on the back of domestic festival demand and tighter raw nut availability.