China Millet: From Old-Crop Squeeze to Acreage Rebound Risk

China’s millet market is shifting from acute old-crop tightness in early 2026 toward a medium‑term softening risk as acreage rebounds and farmer returns recover. Nearby prices remain underpinned by depleted state stocks and structurally lower 2025 output, but the planned 2026 expansion in planted area could cap further rallies. After a year of weak grain prices and falling planting margins, China’s 2025 millet area dropped sharply, tightening the 2025/26 balance and pushing the market into a phase where commercial flows rely almost entirely on old crop. By May 2026, many local grain depots reported near‑exhausted high‑quality inventories, creating a seasonal supply pinch. Looking ahead, however, improved farm profits are already set to trigger a notable acreage recovery in 2026, led by key producing regions such as Hebei and Inner Mongolia, which may weigh on prices once the new harvest enters the pipeline.

Prices

Current export offers highlight a firm but stable international background around China. Recent quotes from Odesa for conventional millet seeds and kernels and from Beijing for Chinese hulled kernels have been broadly sideways in EUR terms, indicating that the main driver for Chinese prices is domestic supply rather than external benchmarks.

For now, domestic Chinese prices are primarily supported by the tight 2025/26 balance and the near‑depletion of high‑quality old crop, rather than by any strong upward move in export quotations. With new‑crop acreage expected to increase in 2026, this support is likely to be time‑limited and increasingly sensitive to weather and yield outcomes.

Supply & Demand

Millet fundamentals in China tightened significantly in the 2025/26 season. Following a prolonged period of low grain prices and weaker planting returns in 2024/25, total millet area in 2025 fell to around 3.33 million mu with expected output near 1.1656 million tonnes, both down sharply year‑on‑year. Industry estimates suggest a national area decline of about 35% versus the previous year.

Weather conditions during 2025 were mostly favorable, with generally adequate rainfall and good crop development across major millet belts. However, the strong contraction in planted area more than offset yield gains, leading to a smaller overall crop. By the first half of 2026, commercial circulation relied almost entirely on remaining old‑crop stocks. Local depots reported that rotatable high‑quality grain was gradually running out, and May 2026 marked the tightest supply window of the year.

This tightness is being partially mitigated by the approaching 2026 harvest, for which acreage is set to rebound. Nonetheless, until new‑crop volumes are fully available, the domestic market remains vulnerable to short‑term supply shocks and logistics disruptions, especially in core producing regions.

Fundamentals & Regional Dynamics

Improved farmer economics are at the heart of the next phase in China’s millet cycle. For the 2025/26 marketing year, on‑farm net returns are estimated around CNY 460 per mu, up about 48% year‑on‑year. This rebound in profitability has already encouraged a notable increase in planting intentions for 2026.

Total millet area in 2026 is expected to rise roughly 15% from 2025 to about 4.121 million mu. Regionally, Hebei is forecast to expand from 46,000 mu in 2025 to over 100,000 mu, while Inner Mongolia’s Chifeng Aohan Banner—often referred to as the global “hometown of millet”—is seen maintaining more than 1 million mu with a target output above 300 million kilograms. Such a broad‑based increase in sown area introduces a clear medium‑term bearish element for prices, especially if weather remains cooperative.

In the short run, though, the market still trades on tight old‑crop availability and the seasonal transition to new supply. The combination of depleted state stocks, relatively stable export reference prices and the expectation of larger future harvests creates a classic “bullish nearby, cautious forward” structure in the domestic market.

Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market outlook (next 3–6 months)

• Old‑crop tightness and low visible stocks should continue to support nearby Chinese millet prices into the immediate pre‑harvest period.
• The projected 15% rebound in 2026 planted area, led by Hebei and Inner Mongolia, will likely cap medium‑term rallies and could shift the market to a more balanced or slightly oversupplied stance after harvest.
• Price sensitivity to regional weather and harvest progress will be high; any production setbacks could quickly re‑ignite tightness given the low starting stock base.

Trading recommendations

• Domestic buyers in China: Secure a portion of Q4 2026 needs early, but avoid over‑coverage beyond that horizon given the acreage‑driven downside risk once new‑crop volumes are confirmed.
• Export‑oriented sellers: Use current firmness in old‑crop‑driven Chinese demand to lock in forward sales where possible, while preparing for potential basis pressure if 2026 yields are normal to strong.
• Importers: Monitor Chinese harvest progress and policy closely; a successful 2026 crop could open windows for more competitive Chinese millet exports versus origins such as Ukraine.

3‑day regional price indication (directional, China FOB)

• China, FOB Beijing, hulled kernels (conventional and organic): broadly stable to slightly firm over the next three days, supported by residual old‑crop tightness but with upside constrained by the approaching new harvest.