China’s millet market shows off-season domestic softness, sharp regional price corrections, but resilient premiums and firm export offers. Outlook and trading tips.
Prices & Spreads
Domestic spot prices in key producing areas have softened in the summer off-season. By mid-July, Chifeng and Chaoyang Zhangza 13 millet shipment prices stood around USD 900–937/ton, roughly EUR 825–860/ton at current FX, with the average about 0.8% lower than at the end of June.
Some origins, such as Luzhou in Shanxi and Mengyin in Shandong, experienced much sharper corrections, with quotations retreating by approximately 15%–23% between June and July. This underscores how surplus inventories and slow local demand can quickly translate into aggressive price discounting when temperatures make storage more risky and costly.
Premium segments are behaving differently. In Wuan, the top‑grade millet index gained 3.89% in the first half of the year, far outpacing the 0.70% increase for standard-grade lots. Current export-oriented offers for Chinese hulled yellow millet (FOB Beijing, 99.95% purity, conventional) are indicated near EUR 0.79–0.82/kg, while organic lots (99.90% purity) are around EUR 0.86–0.88/kg, showing only marginal upticks over July but remaining clearly above most competing Black Sea origins.
Supply & Demand in China
Domestic demand is firmly in a seasonal lull. High summer temperatures from June to August make millet storage and retail turnover more challenging, leading to sustained weakness at the consumer level. For marketing year 2025/26, nationwide millet sales are estimated to be down by about 15.4% year on year, reflecting both the seasonal factor and structurally softer household demand.
Milling plants have sharply reduced activity in response. Average operating rates are reported near 2.70%, highlighting just how cautious processors have become amid scarce new orders. With demand unable to absorb available supply, ordinary-quality millet faces persistent downward pressure and is forced to compete via price, especially in regions with heavier carryover stocks.
On the supply side, overall availability is sufficient in standard grades, but top-quality grain sources are relatively tight. This structural tightness in premium categories helps explain the resilience of high-grade prices even as the broader market softens. Low inventories of old-crop high-quality millet are expected to cap potential price declines in this segment during the third quarter.
Fundamentals & International Context
Fundamentals point to a bifurcated market. For mainstream domestic grades, the combination of a 15.4% decline in annual sales, sub‑3% milling utilisation and intense summer storage pressure signals a clearly oversupplied short-term balance. This dynamic has already produced regional corrections of up to more than 20% and may continue to weigh on weaker demand basins until temperatures moderate and autumn consumption begins to recover.
By contrast, the premium and export-oriented segments remain underpinned by tight supplies and solid external demand. Export quotations for Chinese millet are described as firmly holding at high levels, suggesting that overseas buyers are accepting current price ideas and that exporters are not under immediate pressure to discount. Compared with offers from Ukraine and Poland, Chinese FOB prices are higher per kilogram but benefit from reputation and quality, especially for very high purity or organic lots.
Weather-wise, summer 2026 across eastern and northern China is expected to feature above-normal temperatures, with an elevated risk of heat and localised dryness episodes tied to developing El Niño conditions, which could challenge yield potential in some rainfed millet areas if heat persists during key reproductive stages. While it is too early for a precise new-crop balance, such risks help explain the reluctance to aggressively sell premium old-crop stocks despite weak spot demand.
Outlook & Trading Guidance
Looking into the remainder of Q3, the domestic off-season pattern is likely to persist, with flat to slightly weaker prices for standard millet and limited downside for premium grades. As temperatures ease heading into late August and September and household consumption normalises, demand should gradually improve from the current trough, stabilising prices in most regions.
For Q3 old-crop millet, high-quality stocks are expected to see only modest adjustment at worst, given low inventory levels and weather-related uncertainty around the upcoming harvest. Standard grades in oversupplied regions may face additional, though likely smaller, corrections if sales continue to lag, but the steep 15%–23% cuts already seen in some origins have removed part of the immediate downside.
Focused Trading Recommendations
- Processors in China: Use current off-season softness in weaker regions to secure standard-grade coverage for Q4, but avoid overcommitting in premium grades where downside appears limited and supply is tight.
- Exporters: Maintain firm offer levels for top-quality and organic millet, leveraging tight old-crop stocks and steady external interest; consider selective discounts only for lower grades in surplus regions.
- Importers/Buyers abroad: Chinese high-grade millet is likely to stay at a premium versus Black Sea origins; consider blending strategies or timing purchases ahead of potential price support from weather risks and seasonal demand recovery.
Short-Term Weather & 3-Day Price Direction (CN)
In the main millet belts of North and Northeast China, the early August pattern points to continued hot conditions, with locally above-average temperatures and intermittent showers. This keeps storage risks elevated but does not yet imply a dramatic shift in production prospects.