Dried apricots: free‑falling Turkish market tests buyers’ and farmers’ nerves

Prices in the Turkish dried apricot market have dropped sharply with the arrival of the new crop, pushing the market into a pessimistic, buyer‑dominated phase where neither side is willing or able to take long positions. The new season has started with a pronounced loss of momentum. After a long period with dried apricots trading around 300–380 TL/kg on the domestic market, prices slipped below 300 TL/kg as the 2026 crop reached warehouses. This abrupt reversal has frozen decision‑making along the chain: farmers dislike current levels, merchants fear further declines, and importers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for a clear floor to emerge.

Prices

The core feature of the current market is a fast move from high and stable domestic levels (300–380 TL/kg) to sub‑300 TL/kg quotations once the new crop arrived. Merchants perceive this as a classic “top‑to‑bottom” correction, reinforcing the sense that any purchase today could be cheaper tomorrow.

Export price formation is therefore stalled. Many exporters struggle to quote at all, while occasional offers reportedly appear as much as USD 400–500/ton below the still‑uncertain notional market to trigger isolated deals. Farmers, however, resist selling raw material at these depressed levels, further widening the bid‑ask gap and contributing to extremely thin physical trade.

Current EUR price indications

Indicative Turkish FOB offers for standard dried apricots are broadly flat in EUR terms compared with recent weeks, even as the domestic TL market weakens. This reflects both currency dynamics and the fact that exporters have not yet reset list prices decisively lower.

The absence of significant EUR price movement in recent weeks underlines that the main adjustment is happening in TL and in off‑list negotiations, not yet in officially posted export offers.

Supply & Demand

The fresh 2026 crop has arrived into a structurally tight but temporarily demand‑shocked global environment. Following the severe frost and resulting production collapse in Türkiye in 2025/26, the world dried apricot balance sheet entered this season with unusually low carry‑over stocks, even as other origins (Uzbekistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Afghanistan) raised output to partially fill the gap.

Despite this, the Turkish pipeline is currently oversupplied relative to near‑term export demand because all domestic actors are trying to reduce risk. Merchants prefer daily in‑and‑out trades and avoid inventory, farmers must sell to service debts but hold back at current bids, and exporters are unable to conclude normal forward business because importers are waiting for a clearer bottom.

Importers in Europe and other key destinations are adopting a strictly opportunistic stance. They request indications from multiple exporters but commit only when someone cuts USD 400–500/ton under the still‑soft reference level. This creates sporadic, low‑priced spot trades rather than a broad, transparent market, reinforcing exporters’ reluctance to fix volumes.

Weather & Production Context

Weather in Malatya and other core Turkish apricot regions in early August 2026 is seasonally hot and dry, with no major immediate threats reported for the dried crop already harvested. Short‑term forecasts point to continued high temperatures typical for the period, favouring drying but also limiting on‑farm storage quality over time. (No significant new frost or storm damage has been reported in the last few days.)

Given that the main weather risk window for apricots is in spring flowering and early fruit set, the current forecast has limited direct impact on 2026 production volumes. However, it does influence farmers’ willingness to hold physical stocks on farm; persistent heat increases the perceived risk of quality deterioration, which could ultimately force more selling if low prices persist into late August.

Short‑term outlook & trading strategy

With the market still digesting the new crop and searching for an equilibrium, the next few weeks are likely to remain characterised by low liquidity and volatile offers. The key question is at what TL level farmers become willing sellers and exporters can confidently rebuild export pipelines without fearing immediate mark‑to‑market losses.

Trading recommendations (next 4–6 weeks)

• Importers: Continue a staggered buying approach. Consider covering a modest share of Q4 needs on price dips USD 400–500/ton below prevailing reference levels, but avoid over‑committing until export prices stabilise and a clearer floor emerges.
• Exporters: Focus on risk management rather than volume. Use conservative, short‑dated offers and avoid aggressive undercutting that could lock in losses if the market keeps falling. Prioritise loyal customers with flexible pricing structures.
• Farmers and local traders: Weigh storage capacity and financing costs carefully. Where possible, avoid distressed sales at current sub‑300 TL/kg levels, but be realistic about quality risks from prolonged on‑farm holding in hot conditions.

3‑day directional outlook (EUR, main hubs)

• Turkey FOB Malatya (whole, sulphured & unsulphured): Sideways to slightly softer in off‑list negotiations; official EUR/kg lists expected broadly unchanged over the next three days.
• Northwest Europe FCA (NL, PL warehouses): Stable to marginally firmer as low‑priced Turkish offers are only partially passed through and logistics and financing costs remain elevated.
• Overall: Market tone remains weak and uncertain; meaningful trend change is unlikely within the next three days while buyers and sellers continue to wait each other out.