German triticale edges softer but stays firmly underpinned by feed demand

German triticale prices in north-west Germany are easing slightly from early-September highs but remain historically firm, supported by tight feed grain supplies and resilient livestock demand. After a weather-stressed 2026 harvest and reduced German cereal output, triticale continues to price attractively against feed wheat and barley, keeping it well integrated into compound feed rations. A modest softening in local bids around Drentwede reflects some post-harvest selling and calmer futures, rather than a structural shift in fundamentals. Near-term direction will hinge mainly on regional feed grain competition, on-farm selling willingness and upcoming weather that may affect late field work rather than yield.

Prices

Feed-grade triticale (14% max moisture, EXW farm, Drentwede) is currently indicated around EUR 225–230/t, down roughly EUR 5/t from early-September peaks but still above late-August levels.      

National German triticale reference prices for September sit around EUR 170/t on average, putting Lower Saxony and the Drentwede area at a notable premium on the back of strong local feed demand. 

Compared with other feed grains, triticale remains competitively priced: German feed wheat averages around EUR 200–205/t, while EU triticale futures for September trade near EUR 170–175/t, leaving a comfortable discount of roughly EUR 25–30/t to feed wheat at the national level. 

Supply & Demand

The German government’s 2026 harvest report confirms a notable drop in national cereal production, with total grains estimated around 7% below last year due to summer heat and drought. This tightens the overall feed grain balance and underpins prices across the complex, including triticale. 

Within the EU, triticale is a small but important feed grain, and recent EU market outlooks highlight stable to slightly growing mixed-grain and triticale areas, reflecting its nutritional advantages in livestock rations. Cross-border feed flows between Poland and Germany remain key for balancing regional availability but have not been sufficient to generate significant downward pressure on German prices. 

German livestock production is broadly steady, but higher costs for diesel and fertiliser and reduced forage quality in some regions support continued interest in energy-rich cereals such as triticale. While compound feed manufacturers maintain some flexibility between barley, wheat and triticale, the current discount of triticale to feed wheat keeps demand resilient, especially in north-west Germany. 

Weather & Field Conditions (Lower Saxony / Drentwede)

Short-term weather forecasts for Lower Saxony over the coming three days point to relatively mild late-summer conditions, with moderate temperatures, scattered showers and no prolonged excessive heat. This pattern is favourable for post-harvest logistics and field work ahead of winter sowings, without adding new stress to already completed 2026 cereal harvests. 

Given that the main triticale harvest in the region is largely complete, short-term weather will have only a limited direct impact on yield. However, intermittent rainfall can briefly slow farm grain movement, which in turn may lend slight, temporary support to local spot prices if sellers delay deliveries.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tighter 2026 cereal balance: A materially smaller German grain crop after drought and heat keeps the underlying feed grain balance tight, limiting downside for triticale despite modest recent softening. 
• Competitive pricing vs peers: Triticale’s discount of around EUR 25–30/t to feed wheat at the national level supports its inclusion in rations and helps sustain demand, particularly in regions with high livestock density. 
• Regional feed demand strength: Lower Saxony and surrounding north-western states, with dense cattle, pig and poultry sectors, show stronger triticale pricing than the national average, with Drentwede trading at a clear premium. 
• Limited import pressure: While EU and Black Sea grain flows influence the broader complex, logistical and policy constraints continue to restrict very cheap inflows, indirectly supporting German feed values. 

3–5 Day Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• For farmers (sellers): With Drentwede EXW levels still at a premium to national benchmarks, consider incremental sales on rallies above EUR 230/t while keeping some volume unpriced in case the feed complex tightens again later in Q4.
• For feed mills / buyers: Use the current slight softening to extend nearby coverage, especially where triticale replaces a portion of higher-priced feed wheat or barley. Focus on north-west Germany for spot needs but explore offers from central regions where the discount to Drentwede widens.
• For traders: Regional basis remains attractive: short-term, favour spreads that sell national average triticale against higher-priced north-west indications, while monitoring any shift in livestock demand or policy signals on imports.

3-Day Price Direction (Germany)

• Lower Saxony (incl. Drentwede, EXW farm): Slightly softer to sideways, with a trading corridor expected around EUR 222–228/t as modest farmer selling meets steady feed demand. 
• Central Germany (e.g. Hesse, EXW/farm): Sideways bias around EUR 165–175/t, with limited liquidity and no strong catalyst for a break-out in either direction. 
• National reference average: Range-bound near EUR 170/t, tracking the broader feed grain complex and EU triticale benchmarks as markets absorb the smaller 2026 harvest.