Turkish Dried Apricots Ease From Highs as New Crop Weather Turns Hot and Dry

Turkish dried apricot prices have edged lower from recent peaks as the 2026 crop enters the market under generally favourable hot, dry weather in Malatya, despite very recent localised rain damage. The tone has shifted from extreme scarcity to tight but more balanced availability, with exporters testing slightly lower offers to stimulate demand. The new-crop campaign in Malatya is progressing under clear skies and rising temperatures, helping drying and stabilising quality after heavy showers and local floods earlier in August damaged some sun-drying apricots on ground beds in districts such as Hekimhan, Darende and Akçadağ. With carry-in from the frost-hit 2025 season still limited, supply remains structurally tight, but government officials highlight that 2026 fresh apricot output is significantly better than last year’s frost-affected harvest, supporting a modest correction from crisis-level prices.

Prices

FOB Malatya/Ankara spot offers for Turkish dried apricots (EUR/kg equivalent) show a mild softening week-on-week for most sizes and qualities, particularly in organic unsulphured grades, while sulphured industrial sizes are broadly steady.

Export data indicate that Turkish dried apricot export volumes this summer are running significantly below last year, while unit prices remain elevated, reflecting ongoing supply tightness despite the recent week-on-week softening. This suggests the current price move is a correction from very high levels rather than a full trend reversal.

Supply & Demand

Turkey – and especially Malatya – remains the dominant player, supplying the majority of global dried apricot exports. The 2025 crop was heavily constrained by frost and related weather shocks, leaving limited carry-in stocks into 2026 and keeping the market structurally tight.

For the 2026 season, Turkey’s agriculture minister has emphasised that Malatya has enjoyed a "bountiful harvest" compared with last year’s frost-hit output, pointing to a recovery in production capacity and export potential. Nevertheless, early August storms and flash floods in key districts have caused localised losses for fruit laid out to dry, especially for smallholders relying on traditional open-ground drying. At the same time, export statistics through July show reduced volumes year-on-year, implying that high prices and tight raw material are still rationing demand.

On the demand side, European and North American buyers continue to show steady, but more price-sensitive, interest. Some substitution towards alternative origins in Central Asia and Iran, and towards other dried fruits, has been reported earlier in the year, although these origins cannot fully replace Turkish quality, especially for premium Malatya types. This is encouraging Turkish packers to test slightly more competitive offers to defend market share.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Malatya, TR)

Short-term weather in Malatya is favourable for drying. Forecasts for 20–22 August call for plenty of sunshine with daytime highs rising from around 32–33°C to the mid‑30s, and cool, dry nights. These conditions accelerate uniform drying and reduce immediate mould risk after the earlier rains.

The main weather concern is not new rainfall but the cumulative impact of the recent storms and local flooding in districts like Hekimhan, Darende and Akçadağ, where sun-drying apricots on open beds were hit by heavy downpours. While this damage is regionally important, current official communications and local market commentary still frame the 2026 harvest as broadly good compared with 2025, indicating that the national exportable surplus remains significantly above last year’s frost-reduced levels.

Market Fundamentals

Recent academic and industry analyses underline that the Turkish dried apricot sector has become increasingly sensitive to supply-side shocks such as frost, floods and extreme weather, with prices adjusting sharply to protect export revenues when volumes fall. The 2025 frost-driven shortage pushed prices to multi‑year highs, and the current modest easing fits this pattern of price overshoot followed by partial normalisation as supply recovers.

Macro‑economically, the Turkish lira environment and domestic inflation remain volatile, but recent government reports describe agricultural output in 2026 as broadly strong in volume terms. For dried apricots, this translates into exporters balancing higher local production costs and limited stocks against the need to keep euro‑denominated offers competitive with other dried fruit categories and origins. Local wholesale markets in Malatya report intense trading activity for fruit destined for drying, consistent with a solid crop flowing into processing.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View (TR Focus)

Trading outlook (next 2–4 weeks)

• Short-term bias is mildly bearish to sideways for FOB Malatya offers, as hot, dry weather supports drying and more sellers come to market with new-crop volumes.
• Organic and premium unsulphured grades are most exposed to further small price concessions if export demand does not accelerate at current levels.
• Downside is likely limited by still‑tight overall stocks after the 2025 frost-driven shortfall, and by the risk of further localised weather disruptions during the remaining drying period.
• Buyers with Q4–Q1 coverage gaps may consider scaling into dips rather than waiting for a full return to pre‑frost price levels, which appear unlikely in the near term.

3‑day regional price indication (EUR, directional)

• FOB Malatya – conventional sulphured (sizes 4–8): around 7.30–7.60 EUR/kg; bias: flat to slightly softer as weather aids drying and offers increase.
• FOB Malatya – conventional unsulphured (sizes 1–3): around 8.00–8.30 EUR/kg; bias: slightly softer with some sellers trimming premiums to stimulate export demand.
• FOB Malatya – organic unsulphured (sizes 1–4): around 9.00–9.30 EUR/kg; bias: soft, as buyers negotiate lower differentials versus conventional amid strong overall 2026 crop prospects.