Turkish Dried Apricots Edge Higher as EU Demand Meets Firm Origin Offers

Turkish dried apricot prices are grinding higher in early August, with modest week‑on‑week gains across most sizes ex‑warehouse Dordrecht and steady but firm offers FOB Malatya. Tight seller ideas after last year’s frost‑reduced crop and solid European demand are supporting a mildly bullish near‑term tone. The market is still digesting the structural impact of the severe April 2025 frost that cut Türkiye’s apricot crop and slashed export volumes, even as unit export prices jumped sharply. Current offers suggest exporters see limited downside ahead of the new crop flow, while European buyers remain active, especially for whole sulphured fruit. In Malatya, the country’s core apricot basin supplying the majority of Turkish and global dried output, stable FOB indications contrast with gently rising European FCA values, underscoring ongoing margin rebuilding by the supply side.

Prices

Ex‑warehouse Dordrecht (FCA, origin Türkiye), whole dried apricot prices moved up by roughly EUR 0.05/kg across most calibrated sizes between 31 July and 7 August 2026. Size No. 5 is indicated around EUR 6.50/kg, with Size No. 1 at about EUR 7.00/kg and premium Size No. 0 near EUR 7.05/kg, all up around 0.7–1.0% week on week.

Industrial cubes (8–10 mm) are quoted near EUR 3.80/kg FCA, about EUR 0.05/kg higher than late July. This keeps the overall curve gently upward‑sloping by size, with a roughly EUR 0.55–0.60/kg spread between the smallest and largest whole fruit grades.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the dominant origin, accounting for most of Türkiye’s dried apricot output and a large share of global supply. Trade data for 2025 show how vulnerable exports are to weather shocks: after the April 2025 frost, August exports fell more than 60% year on year, while unit export prices rose by nearly 47% in USD terms. These tighter stocks and higher price anchors are still influencing seller behaviour into 2026.

Europe continues to be the key demand hub, with the EU and UK together buying close to 29,000 tonnes annually in recent seasons, led by France, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands. This entrenched EU demand, combined with Türkiye’s status as the primary global supplier, keeps export channels busy and gives exporters pricing power when origin stocks are not burdensome.

Weather & Crop Context (TR)

For the coming three days, eastern Türkiye’s main apricot belt around Malatya is under typical hot, dry summer conditions, with high temperatures and limited rainfall. Short‑range weather guidance does not point to significant precipitation or extreme events that might disrupt drying or logistics in early August.

Given that the critical flowering and early fruit‑set stages have long passed, current weather mainly affects drying quality and energy needs rather than volume. With no immediate weather threat, near‑term supply tightness is more related to last year’s frost‑impacted stock pipeline and exporters’ marketing pace than to new weather shocks.

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

Recent analytical work on Türkiye’s dried apricot sector underlines its highly export‑oriented structure and sensitivity to production swings and currency moves. The sharp 2025 frost‑induced volume loss and higher unit export prices suggest that exporters are now focused on rebuilding margins and may resist aggressive discounting, especially on higher‑quality and organic unsulphured fruit.

At the same time, domestic Turkish prices in Malatya were already elevated in 2024–2025 compared with many staple crops, reflecting dried apricots’ premium positioning in local and export markets. Combined with robust EU demand and a still‑weak Turkish lira, this supports firm FOB offers even while some downstream European stocks have been replenished.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View

Market direction (next 3 days): With weather benign and no fresh supply shock, prices are expected to remain firm to slightly higher. Dordrecht FCA indications are likely to trade within a narrow band, with an upward bias of up to EUR 0.05/kg on tight grades if buying interest persists.

• Buyers (importers, packers): Consider covering near‑term requirements now, especially for popular mid‑sizes (No. 3–5), as incremental price increases and limited discounting from origin are likely in the short term.
• Exporters / origin sellers: Current FCA and FOB levels justify a steady pricing stance. Only consider small concessions on off‑sizes or industrial cubes if demand softens; otherwise, maintain offers and focus on quality differentiation.
• Industry users (bakery, cereal, snacks): Lock in volumes for Q4 2026 where possible, but avoid over‑committing at the very top of the range; monitor any sign of demand pushback in Europe if prices continue to edge up.

Short 3‑day regional price indication (EUR):

• NL, Dordrecht FCA, whole sizes No. 3–5: broadly steady to +0.5% (about EUR 6.50–6.65/kg range).
• NL, Dordrecht FCA, premium sizes No. 1–0: steady to firm (around EUR 7.00–7.10/kg, limited downside risk).
• TR, Malatya/Ankara FOB, unsulphured mid‑sizes: nominally stable in the high EUR 7s to low EUR 8s/kg, with sellers showing little appetite for reductions.