Turkish Dried Apricots: New-Crop Supply Keeps FOB Prices Sideways

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly steady as the 2026 Malatya crop enters the main export window, with no significant weather or logistics shocks on the horizon. Strong supply and hot, dry harvest weather are keeping FOB offers in a narrow range, while EU demand is active but not overheated. The new crop in Malatya has started under generally favourable conditions, with official and industry estimates pointing to a comfortable supply after last year’s frost-affected season. Harvest and export-related events in July underline the region’s role as the backbone of global dried apricot trade. Current hot and stable weather in Malatya and mild conditions in Ankara support rapid drying and smooth logistics, reinforcing a sideways price pattern on both sulphured and unsulphured segments. Buyers are focused on timing and quality differentials rather than outright price moves, while exporters watch currency and freight costs more closely than weather risk for now.

Prices

FOB Malatya prices for conventional unsulphured grades remain flat versus mid-July, with size No. 3–5 offers clustering around the mid–single-digit EUR/kg range, and size premiums largely unchanged. Organic material continues to command a clear premium of roughly EUR 1.3–1.8/kg over equivalent conventional sizes at origin, with no sign of discounting yet.

Sulphured Malatya material (around 2,000 ppm) is trading at a modest discount to unsulphured, but here too the curve is almost flat week-on-week, reflecting balanced nearby demand. FCA wholesale prices for Turkish origin in continental Europe (e.g. the Netherlands, Poland) show only marginal week-on-week moves and remain below FOB origin values after accounting for logistics and margins, indicating comfortable downstream stocks rather than tightness.

Supply & Demand

Industry sources report that the 2026 Malatya dried apricot crop is large, with the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) and local exporters pointing to around 75,000 metric tons of new-crop supply, providing a solid cushion versus last year’s frost-reduced output. Official ceremonies marking the start of the harvest in mid-July and the Malatya Apricot Festival underline that picking is underway across key districts and that the region is fully geared toward export.

While a localized hail event in May caused 10–20% damage in some orchards, the overall impact on provincial production is assessed as limited, with no evidence of a meaningful downgrade in total crop expectations. EU and UK remain the dominant buyers for Turkish dried apricots, absorbing the bulk of exports, and early reports from Malatya highlight that shipments to Europe resumed quickly once harvest began. Recently announced Russian restrictions on stone fruit from Türkiye focus mainly on phytosanitary issues in fresh flows and have not yet translated into notable disruptions for processed or dried apricot trade.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (TR)

The short-term weather outlook is strongly supportive for drying and logistics. In Malatya, daytime highs between about 35–38°C with clear skies over the next three days favour rapid sun-drying and reduce the risk of quality loss from moisture during harvest. Overnight lows in the high-teens to low-20s °C further help maintain good drying curves for both sulphured and natural product.

Ankara, an important logistics and handling hub for some organic and processed product, faces mild and stable conditions with highs near 29–30°C and cool nights around 13–15°C, which are ideal for storage and packing activities. Crucially, no rain or storm systems are forecast for the coming three days in either region, keeping near-term weather risk to prices very low and reinforcing today’s sideways market structure.

Fundamentals & Market Mood

Malatya supplies around half of Türkiye’s fresh apricots and roughly 95% of its dried apricot production, accounting for a dominant share of global dried apricot trade. With the 2026 bloom largely frost-free and only localized hail damage, the new crop is perceived as both sizable and reasonably homogenous in quality. This underpins current offer stability, as sellers feel little urgency to discount early in the season.

Exporters and traders report a calm but firm tone: spot inquiries from EU buyers are steady, but there is limited evidence of front-loaded panic buying. Most participants expect that ample raw material will allow flexible sizing and quality allocation throughout the season. In this context, currency moves, freight costs and evolving sanitary requirements in key markets (EU, EAEU) are seen as bigger medium-term risks than domestic weather, at least for the early part of the campaign.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (EU importers, packers): With origin prices flat and weather supportive, this window is suitable for covering short- to medium-term needs in standard sizes, especially sulphured No. 3–5 and unsulphured No. 4–5. Consider gradually layering purchases rather than waiting for meaningful discounts, which are unlikely while crop quality is good and logistics are smooth.
• Retail and brand owners: Secure organic volumes early, as the premium is currently moderate relative to historical extremes and organic availability can tighten later in the season. Focus on strict quality specs and certification rather than price haggling, given the generally comfortable but not limitless organic supply.
• Exporters in Türkiye: With a solid crop and stable demand, maintaining offer discipline on higher grades looks justified. Monitor Russian and regional regulatory developments for stone fruit closely, but avoid aggressive price undercutting in Europe unless clear evidence of demand weakness appears.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (TR)

• Malatya FOB, sulphured No. 3–5: Sideways in EUR, very narrow range expected as weather stays hot and export interest steady.
• Malatya FOB, unsulphured No. 3–5: Sideways to slightly firm bias if EU demand for natural product continues to edge higher, but any move likely within a few eurocents per kg.
• Ankara FOB, organic grades: Sideways; no immediate supply squeeze signalled, though small-size organic lots may command marginally higher premiums if early interest strengthens.