Turkish Dried Apricots: Slow Start to Season as Farmers Hold Out for Higher Prices

Export activity in Turkish dried apricots has started the new season slowly as farmers hold back product, but international FOB prices in EUR remain firm, signalling latent upside if raw material values rise toward growers’ cost levels. The export season for dried apricots began on 1 August with significantly lower shipments than last year, despite higher average export prices per ton. Many growers, facing raw material prices of only 270–280 TL/kg against an estimated breakeven near 400 TL/kg, are reluctant to sell and are financing storage instead. This producer resistance is tightening near‑term availability and keeping export flows sluggish, even though destination markets appear prepared to pay more in USD and EUR. With Türkiye still the benchmark origin and global supply structurally tighter after recent frost damage, the market is finely balanced between buyers’ caution and farmers’ determination to wait for better returns.

Prices

Raw material prices in Türkiye are currently reported around 270–280 TL/kg, well below the roughly 400 TL/kg level farmers say they need to cover costs and secure a margin. This gap explains why many growers with sufficient liquidity are choosing to hold stocks rather than sell at current bids.

On the export side, last season’s average price increased from about USD 6.5/ton to USD 8.2/ton for the same early‑season comparison window, yet this has not translated into adequate farm‑gate support. Converting current export offers into EUR, standard Turkish dried apricots (Malatya, unsulphured, sizes 1–5, FOB) are broadly indicated around:

In European warehouses (e.g. Netherlands, FCA Dordrecht), Turkish origin spot material trades slightly lower for small sizes, around EUR 6.0–6.7/kg, reflecting logistics and size mix but still consistent with a firm market structure.

Supply & Demand

The new Turkish export season, which began on 1 August, is clearly lagging last year. In the same week of the previous season, exports reached 285,177 tons at an average price of USD 6.5/ton; this season, shipments are only 102,910 tons, even though the average price has risen to USD 8.2/ton. The sharp fall in volume despite higher prices underlines how strongly farmers are restricting supply.

Many growers with adequate financial strength are choosing to store product, betting on higher prices later in the season. This behaviour is effectively creating a self‑imposed supply squeeze at origin. International buyers, having already faced tight availability in recent years due to frost‑related production losses in Malatya and other key areas, are cautious about chasing the market but may be forced to step in more aggressively if shipments do not normalise.

Demand from core destinations (Europe, North America, Middle East) remains relatively stable in volume terms, with some down‑trading in quality or size where possible. However, because Turkish dried apricots have unique characteristics and are hard to substitute fully with Central Asian origins, buyers’ flexibility on origin remains limited, supporting underlying demand for Turkish product.

Fundamentals & Cost Pressure

The central fundamental tension is the mismatch between farm‑gate prices and production costs. With raw material at 270–280 TL/kg and a profitability threshold near 400 TL/kg, current offers leave many farmers close to or below breakeven. This is pushing them to rely on on‑farm storage and credit, slowing product flow to traders and packers.

At the same time, export statistics clearly show that higher FOB and CIF prices have not yet compensated growers adequately. The spread between export realization (USD 8.2/ton vs 6.5/ton last year for the early period) and farm‑gate levels suggests that margins along the chain are being squeezed or reallocated, and that further adjustment may be needed to align incentives.

Global dried apricot balances remain relatively tight, with Türkiye still the price‑setting origin despite growing volumes from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan in recent seasons. Their product, however, does not fully match Turkish quality profiles, which limits substitution in higher‑value retail and industrial segments and keeps a premium on Turkish material.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Weather in Malatya and other Turkish apricot‑growing regions has recently been seasonally warm and dry, favourable for drying and storage quality rather than for further yield changes at this late stage of the crop cycle. Short‑term forecasts point to continued summer conditions without major rainfall or frost risks for the next days, supporting stable quality for the stock already in growers’ hands.

Given that the main production shocks (such as spring frost) are already behind the market for this crop year, weather‑related risk over the next few weeks is more about maintaining product quality in storage and transit than about quantity. No immediate weather catalyst is therefore expected to ease or worsen the current supply tightness in the very short term.

4–8 Week Price & Trading Outlook

With farmers clearly signalling resistance to current raw material bids and export volumes sharply below last year, the balance of risk for prices over the next one to two months tilts modestly to the upside. A gradual, not explosive, rise in raw material prices is the most likely scenario as exporters raise bids to secure volume and meet forward commitments.

• Short‑term (next 4 weeks): Sideways‑to‑firmer tone. Limited farmer selling and slow exports should keep FOB prices supported, especially for popular sizes 1–4 unsulphured.
• Medium term (4–8 weeks): If exports remain well below last year’s pace, exporters may have to improve farm‑gate bids, pushing raw material towards growers’ target levels and lifting FOB indications by EUR 0.20–0.40/kg.
• Downside risks: A sudden wave of farmer selling due to cash needs or macro shocks (e.g. currency moves, credit tightening) could temporarily ease prices, but this is not the base case at present.

Focused Trading Recommendations

• Importers / industrial buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q4–Q1 needs at current EUR levels, especially for core sizes 1–4 unsulphured, to hedge against raw material‑driven increases later in the season.
• Retail packers: Prioritise securing consistent quality and specification rather than chasing marginally lower prices; quality differentials between Turkish and alternative origins may widen if Turkish supply tightens further.
• Producers / cooperatives: Those with strong liquidity can justify continued holding, but should monitor export pace and buyer coverage closely; a staggered selling strategy into potential price strength over the coming weeks appears prudent.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Türkiye – Malatya FOB: Dried apricot prices for unsulphured sizes 1–5 expected steady to slightly firmer in EUR terms as farmer selling remains limited.
• EU warehouses (NL, PL, FCA): Spot Turkish dried apricot offers likely stable, with only marginal upward adjustment possible where replacement costs are higher.
• Key import markets (Western Europe): End‑buyer prices forecast stable in the next three days, with more significant moves dependent on new Turkish offer levels rather than immediate demand shifts.