Turkish Dried Apricots: Strong Crop, Firm Grower Prices, Buyer Pushback

Hot, dry weather has delivered a healthy Turkish apricot crop and timely drying, but firm grower ideas and cautious buyers are creating a stand-off, with many expecting price strength into October–November. Exporters are working to rebuild European demand after last year’s quality setbacks while leveraging new markets gained in the previous season. The fresh apricot harvest is estimated at around 385,000 tons, with dried output projected at 85,000–90,000 tons—adequate but not burdensome for the global market. Producers are satisfied with yields and quality thanks to favourable weather, yet they resist discounting standard dried grades as they anticipate further price gains later in the season. At the same time, European buyers remain highly sensitive to quality (aflatoxin, sulphur levels) and price, slowing forward buying. With another hot, mostly dry spell in Malatya keeping drying conditions benign, the market enters autumn balanced but tilted slightly in favour of holders.

Prices

In the domestic Turkish market, top-quality sun-dried apricots are reported around 455–500 TRY/kg. At current FX (≈35 TRY/EUR), this implies roughly 13.0–14.3 EUR/kg at origin for the very best lots, underlining the firmness of grower expectations.

Export FOB quotes from Malatya and Ankara show a more moderate but steady structure. Unsulphured conventional Turkish dried apricots range around 8.1–8.3 EUR/kg for No. 1–4 sizes in Malatya, with organic equivalents roughly 9.0–9.2 EUR/kg. Sulphured types (2000 ppm) are trading lower, broadly around 7.3–7.7 EUR/kg FOB depending on size and location.

In European warehouses, recent FCA offers for Turkish origin show No. 1–2 sizes in the Netherlands around 7.1–7.15 EUR/kg and smaller sizes around 6.1–6.6 EUR/kg. In Poland, TR-1123 standard No. 8 is quoted near 4.85 EUR/kg FCA, indicating competitive pricing for lower grades and a relatively flat trend over the last weeks.

Supply & Demand

The Turkish fresh apricot crop of about 385,000 tons translates into an expected 85,000–90,000 tons of dried product. Hot, dry conditions have allowed fruit to dry on time and without quality losses, supporting a large share of high-spec sun-dried material. From a global perspective, this places supply in a comfortable band: neither tight enough to cause panic, nor heavy enough to trigger aggressive discounting.

On the demand side, producers report that domestic buyers and exporters are struggling to secure standard grades at the lower prices they seek. Sellers prefer to hold inventory, expecting stronger demand and higher prices into October and November. Exporters are particularly focused on regaining European market share after weather-related quality issues, aflatoxin incidents and sulfur-content non-compliances last year damaged confidence. At the same time, they are encouraged by growth in new markets opened in the previous season.

Fundamentals & Quality

Fundamentals currently lean slightly bullish. Quality is generally good thanks to the hot, dry season, and the share of high-quality sun-dried fruit is high. This, combined with producers’ reluctance to sell at discounts, supports a firm floor under prices, especially for premium unsulphured and organic lots.

However, the recovery of European demand hinges on strict quality compliance. After last season’s challenges with aflatoxin and sulfur levels, European buyers are likely to test and contract cautiously, favouring suppliers with strong food safety records. Competition from other origins is limited in the core sulphured segment, but buyers can switch between grades, sizes and origins if Turkish prices move too far ahead of the rest of the dried fruit complex.

Weather Outlook (Malatya)

Short-term forecasts for Malatya, the key Turkish apricot region, point to continued warm, predominantly dry conditions. Over the coming 7–10 days, daytime highs are mostly expected in the upper 20s to low 30s °C, with very low rainfall probability and dry air.

These conditions remain supportive for late drying operations and on-farm storage, with low immediate risk of quality deterioration from rain or humidity. Weather is therefore not a bearish factor in the short term; rather, it reinforces producers’ willingness to hold stocks while waiting for potentially higher winter demand.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers / Importers: Consider covering nearby Q4 needs soon, especially in premium sun-dried, unsulphured and organic categories, where producer resistance is strongest. For standard sulphured grades, there may be more room to negotiate, but waiting too long could mean paying up if October–November demand materialises.
• Producers / Exporters: Current fundamentals justify a firm stance, yet rebuilding European market share requires competitive, quality-assured offers. Structured sales programs (e.g. staggered contracts into Q1) can lock in margins while avoiding excessive price spikes that could scare off buyers.
• Industry Users (packers, processors): Differentiate sourcing between high-quality sun-dried fruit and more economical standard grades. Blending strategies and flexible specifications can help manage input costs if prices strengthen into winter.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Turkey FOB Malatya/Ankara: Prices for both sulphured and unsulphured grades are expected to remain broadly stable over the next 3 days, with a mild upward bias driven by producer holding behaviour and supportive weather.
• EU Warehouses (NL, PL): FCA levels should track origin values closely, with only minor day-to-day adjustments from FX and logistics. No sharp moves are anticipated in the next 72 hours, but the tone stays firm, especially for larger sizes.