Turkish Dried Fig Season Opens Strong with Surplus Supply Ahead

The new Turkish dried fig season is starting under clearly bullish supply conditions: a roughly 20% larger crop and expectations above 90,000 tons are meeting a market where EUR export prices are broadly stable so far. This tilts short‑term bargaining power toward buyers, although final quality will still depend on weather during the drying phase. Abundant winter rainfall and the absence of major weather shocks have set up a significantly larger Turkish dried fig crop than last year. Aydın again leads production, and the ceremonial first purchase at 850 TL signals an official start to the season, with domestic consumer-quality figs currently trading around 600–700 TL/kg. Export offers from Malatya and İzmir show a flat price structure over recent weeks, suggesting that the larger crop is being largely absorbed without immediate downward pressure in EUR FOB terms.

Prices

Domestic prices for good-quality dried figs in Turkey are currently around 600–700 TL/kg. Using an indicative rate of ~36 TL per EUR, this corresponds to roughly 16.7–19.4 EUR/kg at retail level. Symbolic top-quality lots were purchased by the Aydın Commodity Exchange at 850 TL/kg (≈23.6 EUR/kg), underlining strong perceived quality for early product.

Export-side, conventional Turkish dried figs (FOB Malatya) are indicated around 7.6–9.6 EUR/kg for natural and 6.2–7.6 EUR/kg for Lerida types, depending on size and grade. Organic and specialty products from İzmir trade at a clear premium, with most lines between roughly 9.7 and 16.1 EUR/kg FOB. Over the past month, these EUR price levels have been broadly stable, with only marginal adjustments visible in organic categories.

Supply & Demand

This season’s Turkish dried fig production is expected to exceed 90,000 tons, around 20% above last year’s crop. Last season’s exports reached 53,663 tons, of which 40,000 tons originated from Aydın, highlighting the region’s central role in global dried fig supply. With such a substantial increase in available volume, exportable surplus is likely to expand noticeably.

On the demand side, traditional import markets in Europe and other regions will benefit from improved availability and a wide range of grades. Given the stable EUR-denominated offers so far, buyers appear cautious but not absent, likely waiting to assess quality consistency and potential discounts later in the campaign. The larger crop implies more choice for size and quality selection, particularly in standard natural and Lerida categories.

Weather & Quality Outlook

Weather has been favorable up to now: abundant rainfall during winter supported tree health and fruit set, and no major adverse events have been reported. Air temperature during drying is a key driver of final product quality. Temperatures have been high so far but are expected to ease slightly around the weekend, which can support more controlled drying if not accompanied by excessive humidity.

Importantly, current expectations are that even if rainfall and humidity remain somewhat elevated, they should not materially impact quality. This suggests low weather-related downside risk at this stage, although localized quality differences may still emerge depending on microclimates and farm practices. Overall, the quality outlook is mildly positive, in line with the ceremonial first lot being priced at a clear premium to regular domestic trade.

Fundamentals & Market Balance

Fundamentally, the fig market is shifting into a looser balance. A 20% higher crop on top of last year’s export baseline means that, unless demand accelerates materially, carry-out stocks or stronger price competition will be needed to clear the crop. So far, the absence of a visible EUR price decline suggests that exporters are aiming to defend values in early negotiations.

Grade differentials remain significant. Larger, natural figs (No. 1–2) command the highest FOB prices, while smaller Lerida types trade at discounts, offering value for industrial users. Organic lines continue to price at substantial premiums, reflecting limited certified acreage and firm niche demand. With the season just opened, industrial buyers for bakery, snacking, and ingredient use have an opportunity to secure volumes early before the full export flow is committed.

Trading Outlook

• Importers / Packers: Consider forward-covering a portion of 2026/27 needs now while supply is abundant and EUR prices are stable, focusing on securing preferred sizes and origins from Aydın.
• Industrial Users: Smaller Lerida grades offer attractive value; locking in these segments early could hedge against later tightening in specific size bands.
• Producers / Exporters: Given the larger crop, maintaining price discipline while ensuring rapid offtake will be key. Differentiating by quality, certification (organic), and packaging can help defend margins.

Short-Term Price Indication (3-Day View)

• Turkey, FOB Malatya – Conventional dried figs (natural & Lerida): Prices seen stable to slightly softer in EUR as more early-season volumes hit the market.
• Turkey, FOB İzmir – Organic and specialty figs: Stable, with strong premiums likely to hold given steady niche demand.
• Domestic Turkey – Retail-quality dried figs: Around 600–700 TL/kg (≈16.7–19.4 EUR/kg) expected to remain broadly stable in the very short term.