Turkish Fig Market: Strong Crop, Weak Farmgate – TMO Support Urgently Needed

Producers in Turkey’s core fig region enter the 2026/27 season with a larger crop but severe margin pressure. Fresh fig prices are too low to cover sharply higher costs, prompting a likely shift of volumes into drying just as exporter demand is only slowly awakening. The first symbolic dried fig purchases in Nazilli (Aydın) on 7 August at 500 TRY/kg highlight the tension between a good crop and producers’ need for cost recovery. While weather has been favourable and a larger dried fig output than last year is expected, farmgate economics are critical: producer costs are reported around 130 TRY/kg, yet fresh figs change hands at only 35–40 TRY/kg, making fresh sales uneconomic. Market talk of dried prices around 250 TRY/kg would leave growers well below break-even, increasing calls for Turkish Grain Board (TMO) intervention to stabilise the market and support incomes.

Prices

Exporter offer levels for Turkish dried figs (FOB, Malatya/İzmir) currently cluster around EUR 7.6–9.6/kg for conventional natural and Lerida types, with premium organic products ranging from roughly EUR 9.7/kg (cubes) up to about EUR 16.1/kg (mini dried figs). These EUR-denominated export prices have been broadly stable over the past three to four weeks, suggesting that international buyers are still in price-discovery mode rather than aggressively bidding the new crop.

At the domestic level, the gap between symbolic early purchases at 500 TRY/kg and market rumours of 250 TRY/kg for dried figs underlines a still-unclear pricing structure. Given producer cost estimates near 130 TRY/kg and very weak fresh prices of 35–40 TRY/kg, any move toward lower dried fig purchase prices would intensify pressure on growers and likely trigger louder demands for TMO support purchases.

Supply & Demand

Weather conditions in the Nazilli district of Aydın have been favourable for fig production this season, and a higher total quantity is expected compared with last year. The fresh fig market is described as active, but prevailing low fresh prices make sales unattractive from a producer perspective. This combination – good yields and weak fresh returns – points to an increased share of the crop being channelled into drying, potentially boosting dried fig availability for export later in the season.

On the demand side, export interest appears steady but not yet aggressive, reflected in flat FOB indications in EUR. With Turkey being a dominant supplier of dried figs to Europe and other regions, increased Turkish availability could weigh on prices if global demand does not ramp up accordingly. However, quality is expected to be good thanks to the season’s favourable weather, which could support competitiveness against other origins, particularly in higher-grade natural and organic segments.

Fundamentals & Producer Economics

The key fundamental tension lies in producer margins. Reported on-farm costs around 130 TRY/kg contrast sharply with fresh market prices of 35–40 TRY/kg, making fresh fig sales loss-making for many growers. As a result, producers are incentivised to dry more of their crop in the hope that dried prices will offer better cost coverage. Yet rumours of 250 TRY/kg for dried figs would still be insufficient to cover current cost structures, indicating that even dried figs may not ensure profitability without stronger pricing or policy support.

The first symbolic dried fig purchase at 500 TRY/kg by exporters signals recognition of producers’ cost challenges, but it does not yet set a firm commercial benchmark for the season. Without clear and remunerative price signals, producers face significant uncertainty as they decide on the balance between fresh sales and drying, and as they negotiate contracts with traders and exporters.

Weather & Crop Outlook

Favourable, largely dry and warm conditions in the Nazilli–Aydın region have supported both fruit set and quality for the 2026/27 fig crop. This underpins expectations of higher production compared with last year and generally healthy raw material quality for drying. For now, there are no major weather-related threats reported that would significantly reduce the available crop or disrupt drying activities in the early part of the season.

Given that figs are highly sensitive during drying, continued stable late-summer weather will be important to avoid quality downgrades and aflatoxin-related losses. Market participants should monitor local forecasts closely for any late rain events that could temporarily slow drying or alter the quality mix available for export programmes.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Exporters/Packers: Consider early coverage of quality raw material while producer selling pressure is rising but before any potential TMO intervention lifts farmgate expectations. Focus on securing higher grades and organic volumes where EUR prices remain relatively firm.
• Importers/Retailers: Use the current period of stable EUR FOB offers (around EUR 7.6–9.6/kg for main Turkish types) to lock in a portion of Q4–Q1 needs. Leave some flexibility for potential downside if increased dried supply weighs on prices, but factor in upside risk from policy support.
• Producers/Cooperatives: Prioritise drying where cost recovery is more realistic than in the fresh market, but avoid pre-committing large volumes at rumoured levels that do not cover full costs. Engage with TMO and cooperatives to push for support purchases that can underpin a cost-reflective floor.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)