Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi: Stable Prices Amid Firm Export Demand

Vietnamese dried guava FOB Hanoi prices remain flat, with no change over the past month, as steady export demand is balanced by adequate raw fruit availability and normal mid‑summer weather in northern Vietnam. With no major supply shocks or logistics disruptions reported in recent days, the market is trading in a narrow range and buyers can still secure volume without paying a weather or risk premium. Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports continue to post solid year‑on‑year growth in 2026, but guava remains a niche within an expanding dried fruit basket dominated by durian, mango and other high‑value items. Recent trade data show broader fruit and vegetable exports up strongly in H1 2026, supporting firm baseline demand for processed products including dried guava, while competition between exporters and diversified destination markets help to cap prices. In this context, current stable quotes look sustainable in the very short term, barring sudden weather disruptions in the Red River Delta.

Prices

Dried white guava, origin Vietnam, FOB Hanoi, is assessed at approximately €4.80–€4.90/kg today, converting from quoted USD levels. The price has been unchanged over the past four weeks, indicating a balanced spot market with limited volatility.

Given the broader bullish backdrop in Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports—up around 18% in value in the first half of 2026—current flat dried guava prices suggest exporters are prioritising volume growth and market share over aggressive price hikes.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable export sector remains in expansion mode, with H1 2026 export revenues reported at about USD 3.65 billion, up strongly year on year. While durian and other flagship fruits drive headlines, this broad‑based growth creates a supportive demand environment for secondary processed products such as dried guava.

On the supply side, no recent reports indicate significant disruptions to guava production or processing in northern Vietnam. The country is actively promoting fruit exports to China and other Asian markets through trade missions and connectivity programmes, which, even if not guava‑specific, indirectly benefit dried guava exporters by improving logistics channels and buyer relationships.

At the global level, recent market intelligence highlights a short‑term paradox in dried fruits: overall demand continues to grow, but some online trade platforms saw lower volumes in 2025, pushing exporters to differentiate via quality, certifications and product innovation. Vietnam is increasingly viewed as a strategic sourcing base for tropical dried fruits thanks to competitive costs and improving processing capacity, which argues for structurally firm demand for Vietnamese dried guava.

Weather & Crop Conditions (VN)

Short‑term weather around Hanoi, the key logistics and processing hub for northern fruit, is seasonally hot and humid but not extreme. Local forecasts for July 26–28, 2026, indicate high temperatures in the low‑ to mid‑30s °C with scattered showers and thunderstorms, typical of the monsoon period but without severe storm warnings at present.

These conditions support continued harvesting and transport, albeit with the usual need to manage heat stress and occasional rain‑related delays. Crucially, there is no indication in the latest outlook of flooding or prolonged heavy rainfall that would materially disrupt guava supply or post‑harvest handling in the coming days.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export growth backdrop: Vietnam’s robust fruit and vegetable export growth in 2026 underpins baseline demand for dried fruits, including guava, helping keep prices supported despite stable near‑term supply.
• Competitive dried fruit hub: Vietnam is increasingly positioned as a regional hub for dried tropical fruits, with global buyers expanding sourcing as part of healthy‑snack and premiumisation trends, which favours medium‑term demand for value‑added items like dried guava.
• Limited product‑specific news: No fresh guava‑specific policy, phytosanitary or logistics headlines have emerged in the past three days, suggesting that the current price plateau mainly reflects a steady, undisturbed fundamental balance.
• Macro & FX: With no abrupt FX shocks reported for Vietnam in recent days, exporters have little immediate pressure to adjust USD terms, supporting the observed price stability in EUR after conversion.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• For buyers: Consider using the current flat market to secure short‑term coverage (1–2 months) at today’s levels. With underlying export demand strong, the risk‑reward favours locking in part of requirements before any weather‑ or demand‑driven uptick later in Q3.
• For sellers/exporters: Maintain offers near current levels while exploring small premiums for higher grades, certifications or tailored packaging. In the absence of supply stress, aggressive price hikes may face resistance.
• For traders: Range‑bound trading is likely in the immediate term. Focus on arbitrage between Vietnam and other Asian origins in EUR terms, and on timing shipments to avoid peak monsoon disruptions rather than betting on large outright price moves.

3‑Day Price Direction (Regional)

• Hanoi FOB (dried guava, white): Stable in EUR terms over the next three days, with a slight upward bias if short‑term export inquiries pick up, but no strong catalyst for a breakout.
• Other VN ports (re‑quoted from Hanoi basis): Also expected stable, with minor adjustments driven mainly by freight and container availability rather than raw material costs.
• Overall regional tone: Quiet, with prices anchored by steady fundamentals and typical monsoon‑season weather that is being managed within normal operational parameters.